Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311716
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

...Showers and thunderstorms central/eastern mountains and adjacent
plains with some heavy rain possible...

Models continue to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will
develop and move south through southern Colorado today and tonight.
The area of widespread precipitation will primarily impact the east
slopes of the mountains and adjacent plains.  Areas to the west and
east of this area will see only isolated to scattered precipitation
and considerably lower precipitation amounts. The cold front that
will get things going is already moving south through El Paso County
at the present time. It will continue moving south early this
morning and be through all of southern Colorado by midmorning. Winds
will be northeasterly behind the front but will turn around to east
and finally southeast in most areas of the plains during the
afternoon. This will bring upslope forcing to areas along and near
the east slopes of the mountains. About the same time, an upper
disturbance will move through, providing lift from above during the
afternoon. The two forcing mechanisms will work together to lift a
moist and unstable airmass and get widespread showers and
thunderstorms going over the Pikes Peak Region during the late
afternoon.

A few showers are occurring, per radar, over eastern El
Paso County at the present time.  This is in a response to the front
moving through and lifting the air.  This just gives an indication
of how unstable the air is right now.  It`s hard to generate new
convection in southern Colorado during the predawn hours so the
airmass must be pretty unstable.  In any event, this activity may
come and go this morning but the really big show of precipitation
will hold off until later in the afternoon through the evening.
Early in this period, widespread showers and thunderstorms will get
going initially over the Pikes Peak Region and then spread south
through the course of the evening.  The severe threat doesn`t look
that great mainly due to a lack of shear.  The Storm Prediction
Center doesn`t even have southern Colorado outlooked for today.
Probably the main threat from storms this go around will be the
possibility of heavy rainfall.  The models are generating some
pretty hefty precipitation totals, which is usually an indication
that the model`s convective parameters are all being turned on. With
frontal forcing, an upper level trigger, adequate moisture, decent
instability and slow steering currents, heavy rain would certainly
seem reasonable.  Will have to watch for the possibility of some
flooding problems, especially over urban areas and burns scars.

For the western mountains and high valleys and also
the far eastern plains, showers and storms look to be much more
scattered with this event.  Precipitation amounts should be much
spottier and lower in these areas, with a much lower concern for any
flooding problems.  The rainfall will decrease from north to south
overnight, ending over the Pikes Peak Region by midnight and then
heading south of the New Mexico border by Wednesday morning.

Finally, it should be noted that the mountains above 10,000 feet
will see some more wet snow.  This time it looks likes generally 2
to 4 inches by Wednesday morning, with up to about half a foot or so
on top of Pikes Peak.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Wednesday...Colorado will be between two upper level low pressure
systems Wed morning, with a cold front rapidly sinking south into
New Mexico. Models agree on painting higher QPF and shower chances
along the southern Front Range through Wed morn as llvl upslope flow
strengthens. Expect scattered to likely pops over the higher
terrain, and isolated pops for the SLV and I-25 corridor, through
Wed eve. Wed will be the coolest day of the extended forecast
period, with max temps for most locations in the mid 60s to right
around 70 F.

Thursday through Monday...An upper ridge builds into the desert sw,
bringing much warmer and drier conditions over the weekend and into
the next work week. There will be the diurnal aftn and eve isolated
mt convection, but otherwise much of the area should remain dry,
save for some spillover across the I-25 corridor. Look for max temps
in the 80s to around 90 F for the plains, and 70s to near 80 F for
the high valleys. Fri is forecast to be the warmest day of the
extended. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Computer forecasts are showing a lot of inconsistent signals for
precip duration and timing today...lowering overall confidence in
extended periods of heavy rain. However, a period of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain is likely, particularly in the 21-03z
time frame for the I-25 corridor. Due to early clouds, instability
likely will be lower and prob of TS lower, so have removed TS from
FM groups, but left as VCTS. Could see a period of MVFR to
occasional IFR at KCOS and KPUB from 21-22Z through 06Z tonight,
with low cigs a possibility late tonight especially at KCOS. AT
KALS, should stay VFR with no precip but cannot rule out an
occasional shower. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE


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