Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TSRA DEVELOPING FAIRLY
EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KCOS AND WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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