890
FXUS65 KPUB 131715
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, mainly
  along the Continental Divide; dry across the Plains.

- Warmer today with 80s and 90s across the region.

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period, mainly tied to the higher
  terrain.

- Cold front to cool temperatures slightly Wednesday and
  Thursday, with precipitation chances spreading from the
  mountains to the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Currently...satellite imagery shows a departing upper wave dropping
south into New Mexico early this afternoon, with clearing skies
across southern Colorado.  Temperatures are mild across the Plains,
with mid 50s to mid 60s so far, with a few degrees of cooling
expected through sunrise.

Today...upper level high pressure will build across California and
into the Great Basin this afternoon, with broad northerly flow over
Colorado.  Flow at the surface across the Plains will turn
southeasterly by early afternoon, helping to keep moisture in place
across the region.  Meanwhile, and upper wave will be dropping south
to southwest over Western Colorado.  Modest instability, generally
less than a 1000 j/kg of CAPE and weak shear will help to generate
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain.  The main
concerns from thunderstorms today will be lightning, locally heavy
rainfall, gusty outflow winds to 45 mph and small hail.  Steering
flows should help keep convection tied to the terrain, pushing cells
south to southwest.  Given the western track of the embedded upper
wave, the Plains look to remain dry.  Afternoon high temperatures
will range from the 80s across the San Luis Valley, to upper 80s to
lower 90s across the Plains.

Tonight...the embedded upper wave will quickly track south into
western New Mexico by midnight, with all shower and thunderstorm
activity waning over the mountains.  Once convection clear to the
south, clearing skies are expected as we head into Monday morning.
Temperatures will remain mild, with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s on the Plains, and upper 40s across the San Luis Valley.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Generally, there will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening
convection, with the greatest probabilities across the higher
terrain through Tuesday. An incoming frontal passage will
temporarily cool at least the eastern plains midweek, then there is
a possible pattern change for the upcoming weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...An upper high centered over CA on Monday will
weaken through Tuesday, as the west-northwest flow aloft strengthens
across the northern US. Multiple disturbances aloft will cross the
Rocky Mt region through the forecast period, and the first one will
be Tuesday evening which will force a cold front south across
eastern CO. However, prior to that very warm temps are anticipated
as southerly surface wind help boost temps across the plains to
above normal levels. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes likely
across the higher terrain both days, with scattered activity
crossing the I-25 Corridor during the evening. Plan on highs across
the high valleys to be in the 80s both days. For the plains, temps
will climb into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Mon, then 90s to around
100F for Tue.

Wednesday and Thursday...A cold front dropping across the plains Tue
night will help drop temps to below seasonal normals across the east
both days, and the resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid
in moisture advection. Convection that had been somewhat confined to
the higher terrain will now spread across the eastern plains, with
isolated to scattered activity expected Wed and Thu during the
afternoon and evening. High temps will be in the 80s for most
locations both days.

Friday and Saturday...There is some hesitation in saying this, but
the upper pattern is looking more monsoon-like by the upcoming
weekend, with an upper high over the Gulf and an upper low sitting
over the CA Baja. The extended procedure pushes high temps for Fri
and Sat back up to seasonal normals which is to be expected, but
convection potential remains elevated and widespread. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the most part, VFR conditions are anticipated at all 3 taf
sites during the next 24 hours at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. There
will be some passing showers/-tsra which may affect KCOS and
KALS this afternoon and later this evening. My confidence of
this precip is not all that high, but a prob30 was introduced
into the tafs to account for this. If this activity does occur,
there will be some gusty local outflow winds associated with the
convective showers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH/MOZLEY