000
FXUS65 KPUB 120508
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND E OF I-25 WITH
NUMEROUS ONGOING TS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT E A BIT
THIS EVE AS COLLIDING BOUNDARIES MEET OVR OTERO/CROWLEY
COUNTIES. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WAS A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY
AND WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. THIS HAS DRAWN
THE MOISTURE PLUME UP ACROSS WESTERN NM AND CO...AND IT HAS
BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...VERY ACTIVE. ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND HAS BEEN TIED MAINLY TO THE
MTS.

OVERALL..A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SWEEP A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO SHOVE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TRENDING TO THE WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING...SO THERE
REMAINS A DEFINITE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREA BURN SCARS
AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DEWPOINT READINGS AROUND 50 F FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS INDICATES THAT THERE ALSO IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STRONG STORM TO BECOME SEVERE. ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO
RETREAT TO THE MTS AND WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.

TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AROUND 12Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL THEN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION BY MIDDAY...AND
MODELS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS WELL...WHILE QPF AMOUNTS
ALONG THE E MTS POINT TO A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE WATER THAT
COULD FALL OVER AREA BURN SCARS. THERE IS A QPF BULLSEYE OVER EL
PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES...SO PEOPLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT TOMORROW FOR RAPIDLYCHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES IN...AND HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES
CLOUD UP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...COOL AND WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT OF THE MONSOON PLUME ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ON SUNDAY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
ON THE PLAINS COULD BE MORE STABLE THAN SATURDAY DUE TO COOLER
LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH HEATING
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
AREA MAY GET BRUSHED BY A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS
WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP.

.MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS. CURRENT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE...ROUGHLY
IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...A MODEST CHANGE IN LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE OR COOLING ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COOL...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
AIRMASS MAY TO CAPPED FURTHER EAST WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.
FOLLOWED THE CR PROCEDURE FOR POPS WHICH GENERALLY HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. EC SHOWS A COUPLE
OF DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD INCREASE CONVECTION. TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE WEND OF THE WEEK.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS MTNS ATTM WILL REACH KPUB AND KCOS
AOA 06Z. THIS BOUNDARY MAY INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA THAT MAY LAST
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN FOR KPUB AND KCOS WILL BE
A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A FEW ROUNDS OF TSRA ARE
LIKELY WITH BRIEF LOWER CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE TSRA. GUSTY WINDS TO
45 KNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH THE TAFS
AS I WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH