000
FXUS65 KPUB 122152
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
252 PM MST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU DEC 12 2013

CURRENTLY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF HI CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PACIFIC AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER S CALIF WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WERE MOVING ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS OVER THE REGION HAVE WARMED NICELY (EXCEPT FOR THE SLV) WITH
LOTS OF 50S (AND EVEN A 60 OR TWO) OVER THE PLAINS. THE SLV IS STILL
IN THE ICEBOX WITH READINGS AOA 10F.

NOTICEABLE WARMING HAS OCCURRED AT MID LVLS OF THE MTNS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WX FOR TONIGHT. MOST MTN AREAS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEY FLOORS BELOW...WITH 10 TO 20F
TEMP DIFFERENCES LIKELY. EAST SLOPES OF S MTNS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
LOCAL TEMP MAX WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS OCCURRING TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE S OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER OVER THE PLAINS AND WE WILL
SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE COLDS AS NO NOTICEABLE MIXING WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER WAVE
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO AFFECT THE C MTNS AND THIS MAY
BRING A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THE THE C MTN REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU DEC 12 2013

SECONDARY UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO FRI
NIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND USHERING IN SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE. WAVE
EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SAT TO RUN
5-10F COOLER VERSUS FRIDAY`S NUMBERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WHERE READINGS WILL REMAIN COLD AND LITTLE CHANGED. UPPER
RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PLACING
COLORADO UNDER MILD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
NICELY MANY AREAS SUN...THEN CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MON-
WED. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL REMAIN COLD...THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY
CREEP UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MID-WEEK AS SOME WARMER AIR
ALOFT WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WED...THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS ECMWF IS
FASTER BRINGING THE TROUGH EAST AND DIGS LESS ENERGY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...PUSHING A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY. EXTENDED PROCEDURE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS TO MANY
AREAS THU...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LIKELY COME LATER IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU DEC 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS NEXT 24H. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE/PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH