Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Updated to remove thunder from morning wx...except over Pikes Peak
Region. Still should see some isold showers this morning, but
convection probably not strong enough to mention widespread
mention of TS in grids. Rose

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Per WV imagery...Upper low is now moving into the Four Corners
Region. Some ISOLD LTG strikes continue in this area in the NE
quadrant of the low center. Moisture continues to move northward
through Ern NM and into SE CO. Convection in Baca County is now the
northern portion of a squall line that is moving through the TX
panhandle.

Models have really been struggling with convection forecast over the
past couple days, with the weak upper forcing and subtle BL
interactions. HRRR continues to be the least bullish with storms
later today, while other models such as the ARW show a bit more
storm coverage later today. Given the available moisture, and
increasing upper forcing from the low moving eastward...have
leaned toward the wetter solutions for POPs today. Even the
HRRR has better storm coverage than it had for yesterday.

Have introduced some low POPs for the I-25 corridor this morning, as
a number of models show convection redeveloping in the 12-15Z frame.
Chance looks pretty low but given the ongoing convection over the
four corners and increasing PV advection, could see some ISOLD
activity in our area. If it does, it should dissipate in the mid to
late morning hours and give way to a bit of clearing, which will set
the stage for more showers and storms this afternoon.

So...expect ISOLD storms late this morning over the mts to gradually
spread eastward and increase in coverage. Best chances for the I-25
corridor should come in the late afternoon and early evening,
especially from around 00Z through 03Z. Bulk shear still looks pretty
weak today, so severe threat continues to look on the low side.
But some hail up to about nickel size and wind gusts to 50 mph will
still be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall which will
remain a threat for the burn scars and other flood prone areas.
Temps today will be similar to yesterday...close to 90 over the E
Plains.

With the upper forcing remaining over our area, there will continue
to be a slight chance for a few storms overnight, particularly from
the eastern mountains eastward over the Plains. Cloud cover
overnight will keep temps on the mild side, in the 50s to low 60s
for the Plains and 40s high valleys. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

...Some locally heavy rain possible especially in the mtns Mon and
Tue...

A broad upper low will move slowly east-northeast across the region
during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. This could bring some locally
heavy rains to the mtns and adjacent plains these days. By mid to
late week flow will become more southwesterly throughout and this
will bring decreasing chances of precip to the region with
gradually increasing temperatures.

Monday-Tuesday...

Flash Flood threat will be ramping up once again for the mtns as a
broad area of low pressure is fcst to move slowly east-northeast
across the region. Rather deep southerly flow aloft combined with
lower level upslope flow will impinge on the mountains...especially
the southern mountains. We may see training of storms...especially
on the southern exposures of the mtns within the forecast area. Area
burn scars will be most at risk for flooding.

Plains should also see precip chances ramp up as moisture will be on
the increase throughout the column. The best chance of precip
should be during the Tuesday time frame as the low move out of
the mtns and flow aloft becomes more westerly, which will help
push the high terrain storms out onto the plains.

Mid week into the Labor Day weekend...

Drier air gradually pushes into the region aloft although it never
completely dries out. Thunderstorms should be less over the mtns
with isolated activity over the plains during the late afternoon and
evening time periods. Temperatures will gradually warm up.

Flow aloft will be ramping up and deep shear will be increasing over
the region. With some moisture in place...we could see a few
stronger storms on the plains mid to late week and into the weekend.
Activity should be isolated. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Thunderstorms will be more prevalent today given the approach of a
slow moving upper level disturbance. Thunderstorms are also more
likely to persist later into the overnight hours especially for
the plains. TAF sites will carry VCTS at all three terminals after
21-23z...beginning earliest for KALS and KCOS due to proximity to
the mountains. Erratic wind gusts up to 40 kts will be the primary
concern for the terminals...though if a stronger storm directly
impacts these sites VFR CIGS along with MVFR VIS will be possible
with TSRA. Thunderstorm threat should diminish after 06z for all
three terminals...though VFR CIGS may persist overnight into Mon
morning. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT


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