000
FXUS65 KPUB 250527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Increased Monsoon Thunderstorms expected into Tuesday...

A resurgence of monsoon moisture with embedded disturbances are
currently working into western CO, with the most notable one down
across southern/central AZ.  This latter feature will round up the
northwest side of the upper ridge into western CO later tonight.  In
the mean time, scattered thunderstorms will continue to percolate
across the mountains through the evening before simmering down with
loss of heating tonight. Main storm threats will be locally heavy
rainfall with the potential for flash flooding on burn scars and
areas of susceptible soils. As the next wave glances by to the west,
expect another round of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
to spread into the southwest mountains and continental divide toward
midnight and continue into the early morning hours. Timing of this
wave during the overnight hours and especially its trajectory more
off to the west would suggest rainfall rates overnight are not as
likely to be as intense as they will for areas to the west.  However
burn scars and areas with susceptible soils will need to be
monitored closely.

On Tuesday this wave rounds up the west side of the ridge and
continues to the northeast across northern CO through the day. Layer
specific humidity values will increase from 4-6 g/kg today to 6-8
g/kg by tomorrow afternoon...so heavy rainfall and the potential for
flash flooding will be of greater risk, particularly for burn scars
and areas with saturated soils. With a little better flow aloft,
storm strengths will likely be stronger than the past couple days as
well, however so will storm motions which may help mitigate the
enhanced flash flood threat some. Furthermore, timing and track of
the system would suggest northern areas will experience the best
forcing. All in all, doesn`t look like enough factors come together
to warrant a flash flood watch at this point for the mountains of
south central or southeast Colorado.  Will continue to monitor
latest model trends. Lee trof deepens across the plains and kicks
eastward during the afternoon...so this will result in breezy
southerly winds across the plains.  Temperatures will rise into the
mid 90s to near 100 across the plains however humidity values will
remain too high for fire weather concerns. With more of a westerly
flow aloft on Tuesday thunderstorms will be more apt to move off the
mountains and into the adjacent plains...however coverage looks to
remain fairly isolated at this point as better forcing stays to the
north.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A relatively persistent active meteorological pattern is
anticipated over the forecast district during the balance of the
longer term, with primary meteorological issues including but not
limited to temperatures, pops, rain...heavy at times, flash
flooding potential and the potential for intense storms at times.

Recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and PV
analysis indicate that a relatively deep moist airmass will
prevail over the forecast district from Tuesday evening into at
least early next week.

In addition, northerly to easterly surface surges are expected to
impact primarily eastern portions of the forecast district from
Tuesday evening into Thursday, helping to enhance precipitation
potential. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing heavy precipitation(including flash flooding potential
at times) as well as hail and gusty winds during the Tuesday
evening into Thursday time-frame.

Then, somewhat decreased precipitation coverage is anticipated
from Thursday evening into Friday with increased precipitation
coverage then anticipated again from later this weekend into at
least next Monday. Once again, some of the stronger storms during
this time-frame will be capable of producing heavy precipitation(including
flash flooding potential at times) as well as hail, hazardous
lightning and gusty winds at times.

Projected maximum temperatures during the balance of the longer
term should run near to a category or so below late July
climatological averages, while projected minimum temperatures
during the longer term should continue to above late July
climatological averages over the majority of the forecast
district. In addition, continued basically low-grade gradient
winds and fire weather conditions are projected to continue over
the forecast district during the balance of the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR at all taf sites overnight and through the morning on Tue,
although isolated tsra may linger along the Continental Divide for
much of the night. Expect convection to break out over the
mountains 17z-18z, then move across lower elevations after 20z
until 02z-04z. Storm coverage and intensity will be greater than
the past few days with deeper moisture in place, and will include
a vcts mention at all terminals into the evening, with best chance
for a stronger storm and brief MVFR conditions at KCOS and KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN