Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
427 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating short
wave ridging building across the Rockies ahead of a strong Eastern
Pacific system digging across the West Coast at this time.
Subsidence under the building ridge helping to clear skies across
the area early this morning, though still seeing some patchy low
clouds and fog, especially across the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd
Region, which saw some light showers through the evening hours.

Today and Tonight...Upper ridging continues to build across the
Rockies with southwest flow aloft slowly increasing through the
afternoon as the West Coast trough digs into the Great Basin.
Southwest flow continues to increase across the area tonight with a
lead short wave ejecting across the state as a strong jet core
digging down the backside of the trough across the Great Basin
develops a closed upper low across the Four Corners Region early
Tuesday morning.

With that said, should see a generally warm and dry day across the
area Today, with clouds increasing across the region through the
afternoon. Should see showers developing through the late afternoon
across the ContDvd, with scattered showers spreading east across the
High Valleys and across the Eastern Mountains through the late
evening, with a few possible showers across the Eastern Plains
overnight, as the lead short wave moves across the state. Could see
snowfall of 1 to 4 inches across the higher terrain through tonight,
with the greatest amounts expected along the ContDvd.  Temperatures
to be generally at or above seasonal levels today, with highs in the
50s and 60s across the lower elevations and mainly 30s and 40s
across the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...High Impact Storm Likely Tuesday Night and into Wednesday...

...Another High Impact Event Possible Friday into Saturday...

A couple of impressive storm systems will affect our region
during this forecast period. These storms show promise of bringing
significant and beneficial precipitation to the region. However,
they both have the potential to bring high impact weather to the
region due to the heavy snow potential each storm will have. The
main concern at this time is: At what elevation will the
significant snow begin to accumulate?


A large 500 mb closed low is forecast by all guidance to be
located over the 4 corners region at 12Z Tuesday (6 AM Tuesday
morning). This cyclone is forecast to move slowly to the east and
will be located roughly along the CO/NM border south of Alamosa by
00Z Wednesday (6 pm Tuesday evening).

Showery precipitation  will likely be ongoing across all of the
higher terrain Tuesday morning. Over the far eastern plains, a
band of more significant rain will likely  be along and to the
east of the CO and KS border. Most of the eastern plains of se CO
will likely be dry slotted and little if any precip is expected in
the morning.

As the afternoon progresses and the low moves east, a more
significant easterly component develops over the plains. This system
is fairly stacked and the upslope will be deep. Showery precip will
increase over all of the plains and interior mtns. The main area
of heavy precip, however, will develop during the afternoon along
the mtns/plains interface as the saturated, moist upslope flow
impinges the mtns. the rain/snow line will likely be quite high
early in the day....roughly 8000 ft...but will decrease as the
lower levels saturate and web bulb zero values decrease. by early
evening the rain/snow line could be down as low as ~6000 feet.

Some strong thunder is not out of the question across the region on
Tuesday. Some guidance is showing CAPE approaching 1000 J/KG with
most of the higher values along the I-25 corridor sotu of Pueblo.
We will have to keep a close eye on the numerous burn scars
across the region Tuesday afternoon. A severe storm is not out of
the question.

Tuesday night...

This is when the heaviest precip will be falling along the
mtns/plains interface as the best upslope will be in place along
with the deformation zone being along the the greater I-25 corridor
region. Soundings indicate that the rain/snow line will lower down
to possibly 5000 feet, and this will bring snow into the populated
areas along the I-25 corridor. Given such rather strong forcing,
even Pueblo may see some accumulating snow. Without saying, the
Pikes Peak region will be highly impacted with this storm along with
the remainder of the cities/towns along the I-25 corridor. In
addition, winds will ramp up with this storm (although they are note
expected to be as strong as last Fridays storm), with winds gusting
to 30 to 35 mph across El Paso and Pueblo counties by early
Wednesday morning. Travel across most if not all of the I-25
corridor will be tedious at best Wednesday morning.


The brunt of the storm will start to translate south and east as the
day progresses, with areas along the southern mtns and along the
CO/NM border seeing the worst of the storm. knowing where the
rain/snow line is going to be is difficult, as soundings indicate
snow may get as far as Springfield and La Junta for a period
during the day on Wednesday. I expect the Spanish Peak/Raton mesa
areas above will have the potential for some decent accumulating
snow with this event.

The Wets and Sangres will have the potential to see large
accumulations of heavy snow with this event, with 2 to 3 feet
amounts common.

The lower plains should see some good rains with this event, and all
areas will have the potential to see at least 0.50" or more of
liquid with this storm.

By Wed evening, most of the activity will likely be south and east
of a line from KLHX to KTAD, and this activity will continue to
move to the southeast as the evening progresses.


Short wave ridge moves over the region and it should be
predominantly dry. Max temps this day will be tricky because they
will be dependent on how much snow falls across the region.

Friday and Saturday...

Another strong closed low moves across the area. Precip will move
into the mtns by Friday morning and onto the plains by evening.
Heavy precip is likely and once again the rain/snow line will be
problematic. There is some discrepancies between the models as
the  EC shows a more W to E track just south of the CO/NM border
while the GFS tracks it farther southeast across c NM. I should
note that the GFS was much farther south with this system
yesterday at this time, so the GFS is coming more in line with the
euro model. This second storm will have the potential to be
another high impact event.


Two significant storms are being forecast by the guidance for our
area. The simulations are in pretty good agreement with each
other so confidence is higher than normal that the events will
occur. The main concern at this time is the rain/snow line as
these events. These storms are predicted to be colder than last
Fridays storm so the snow/rain line will reach farther east onto
the plains which will in turn affect more of the population
centers in our region.

Any heavy wet snow at lower elevations will have the potential to
cause tree damage as many trees have greened up.

In addition, last Fridays wind storm cause widespread roof damage to
many homes. Any rain/snow will have the potential to cause
additional damage to these homes.

The wind with Tuesday night/Wednesday event will be blustery, but
winds are not forecast to be damaging.

Winter Weather Watches/Advisories will likely be issued for parts of
the region later on today.

Please keep abreast to the weather forecast as we get closer to the
event(s). /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Patchy fog across the area, especially across the Pikes Peak and
Palmer Dvd Region, will continue to diminish through daybreak.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with generally light south to southeast
expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the afternoon. Will see
increasing mid and high levels clouds through the day, with showers
developing across the ContDvd this afternoon. Scattered showers to
spread east across the High Valleys through the Eastern Mts and
Plains tonight, though not enough confidence to include more than
VCSH in the terminals through 12Z Tuesday.




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