


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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690 FXUS65 KPUB 132008 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 208 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Most precip will be over the mtns and valleys this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. - Temps tomorrow 2-3F warmer than today. - Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected through the long term period, mainly tied to the higher terrain. - Cold front to cool temperatures slightly Wednesday and Thursday, with precipitation chances spreading from the mountains to the eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Currently... N/NE mid level flow was noted over the region this afternoon. Showers were. Showers over the higher terrain reflected this as precip was moving in a general SW/rly direction. Temps early this afternoon across the region were in the L80s across the plains and approaching 80 in the larger valleys. Mtns were generally in the 50s through 70s. Rest of Today and into Tonight... Per short range hi res guidance, a weak disturbance is likely embedded in the flow aloft, and this disturbance will push in form the NW late this afternoon and evening. Expect showers will increase over the central mtns and then move to the southeast as they expand southward. Some guidance has this activity pushing out onto the plains, and I am not overly confident that this occur. I do expect some precip to push out towards the I-25 corridor, but the HRRR may be a bit overly optimistic on pushing a strong outflow boundary well out onto the plains. We will have to continue to monitor to see how this plays out. Storms today are not expected to be as strong or as organized as yesterday late afternoon activity, but nonetheless we should see some storms warrant SPS`s later this late afternoon and into the evening hours for gusty winds and some small hail. The activity will likely end late this evening over the higher terrain. Tomorrow... Flow will transition to a more weak westerly flow with some weak ripples in the flow, so storms tomorrow will have a better chance on pushing onto the plains and staying together for awhile before dying in the evening hours over the eastern plains. Temps tomorrow will be a bit warmer than todays max temps and expect readings into the mid 90s from Canon City to the KS border, with around 90 on the ridges. Mid 80s should occur in the valleys. The activity over the plains should end by mid evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Generally, there will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the greatest probabilities across the higher terrain through Tuesday. An incoming frontal passage will temporarily cool at least the eastern plains midweek, then there is a possible pattern change for the upcoming weekend. Tuesday...An upper high centered over CA will weaken, as the west-northwest flow aloft strengthens across the northern US. Multiple disturbances aloft will cross the Rocky Mt region through the forecast period, and the first one will be Tuesday evening which will force a cold front south across eastern CO. However, prior to that very warm temps are anticipated as southerly surface wind help boost temps across the plains to above normal levels. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes likely across the higher terrain both days, with scattered activity crossing the I-25 Corridor during the evening. Plan on highs across the high valleys to be in the 80s both days. For the plains, temps will climb into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Mon, then 90s to around 100F for Tue. Wednesday and Thursday...A cold front dropping across the plains Tue night will help drop temps to below seasonal normals across the east both days, and the resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid in moisture advection. Convection that had been somewhat confined to the higher terrain will now spread across the eastern plains, with isolated to scattered activity expected Wed and Thu during the afternoon and evening. High temps will be in the 80s for most locations both days. Friday and Saturday...There is some hesitation in saying this, but the upper pattern is looking more monsoon-like by the upcoming weekend, with an upper high over the Gulf and an upper low sitting over the CA Baja. The extended procedure pushes high temps for Fri and Sat back up to seasonal normals which is to be expected, but convection potential remains elevated and widespread. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 For the most part, VFR conditions are anticipated at all 3 taf sites during the next 24 hours at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. There will be some passing showers/-tsra which may affect KCOS and KALS this afternoon and later this evening. My confidence of this precip is not all that high, but a prob30 was introduced into the tafs to account for this. If this activity does occur, there will be some gusty local outflow winds associated with the convective showers. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH