000
FXUS65 KPUB 252021
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...ONE MORE HOT DAY...

THE MONSOONAL PLUME HAS SHIFTED SWD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS EXPECTED.
SCT STORMS NOW MOVING OVER WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EWD OVER
THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING NR AND AFTER SUNSET.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BURN SCARS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE NOT TERRIBLY POTENT AND THEY SEEM TO HAVE DECENT MOTION
WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FLOODING THREAT.

MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT SWD.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING THE 100 DEG MARK ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS. WILL START TO SEE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR SAT NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED
WET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A BROAD UPR TROF WL BE OVR CO SUN AND MON...WITH AN INCREASE IN MSTR
EXPECTED.  SFC DEW POINTS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 50S BOTH DAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. WITH THE
UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
5-10 KTS BOTH DAYS...WHICH WL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE NAM
SHOWS MUCH OF THE PCPN DECREASING OR ENDING BY LATE NIGHT...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP SOME PCPN GOING ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MSTR...HIGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN LATELY...AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
MAY ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SHEAR MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER TUE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO.

WED THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NWRLY AS THE UPR RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH...AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE SERN PLAINS.  THUS
PCPN CHANCES WL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY HIGH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN.  THERE WL STILL BE MSTR OVR
THE AREA ON THU AND FRI...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE. THUS WE MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT A SIMILAR
ROUND OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME 30 PLUS KT GUSTS VC TS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE