Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH 3 AM. RADAR INDICATES A FEW CELLS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THAT WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO HALF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK COMPARED TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 6000 FEET...AND SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES THERE. REDUCED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR SOME...HEAVY RAIN FOR OTHERS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A MAJOR SPRING
STORM SYSTEM.  UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NICELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR...SLATED FOR A TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SYSTEM IS MOISTURE LADEN...UNSTABLE...AND
DYNAMIC...ALL THE THINGS WE LIKE TO SEE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SPRING TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF GOOD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIKELY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.

SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GEN UP PRECIPITATION AS WE SPEAK.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A LARGE...DIFFLUENT REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT THIS TIME IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A LITTLE CLOSER THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE STORMS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING EASTERN
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR
...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INCIDENTALLY...LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL OR QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 6000
FEET...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL.  BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL BE SO HEAVY AND
WET...POWER DISRUPTIONS AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE CONCERNS AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE THE SNOW MANAGES TO PILE UP ON THE ROADS.
SNOW MAY ALSO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND CANON CITY
AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS.  THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF
SNOW OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY COULD SEE A FOOT OF SNOW.
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AS A
GENERALIZATION. FOR EASTERN FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION...RANGING FROM AROUND A COUPLE INCHES AT
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES NEARER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY BELOW 5000 FEET...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE DECENT.  AS A
GENERALIZATION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS COMING IN AT 2 INCHES.  WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER WEST WON`T FARE QUITE AS WELL
...MOST AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE A QUARTER TO 3 QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAIN LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.

LATEST LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION/SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY LATER SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
DUE TO PROXIMITY/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AT 06Z SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS UTAH INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH 28.12Z GFS
INDICATING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE 28.12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
IDEA OF NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DEPICT AREAS OF
ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND MONITOR LATER
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM EXPECTED SUNDAY...WHILE WARMEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

CONDITIONS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AT KCOS
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND AFTER 08Z FOR KPUB. KALS WILL SEE -SHRASN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-072>082-084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068-083-086>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT



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