Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 252130
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Unsettled Spring weather expected for Sunday...

Upper trof over the Great Basin is projected to translate eastward
across southern/central CO, closing off across south central CO by
12Z Sun.  Should see snow showers spread into the Continental Divide
this evening with NAM suggesting some potential for embedded
convection. Snow amounts look a little overdone in NAM12, likely due
to convective parameterization, and think on the whole amounts
should stay under advisory criteria (mostly in the 2-5 inch range).
Its possible that spotty areas along the Contdvd could pick up
around 6 inches of snow late tonight through Sunday morning.

As the upper low closes off, a deformation band develops along the I-
25 corridor Sunday morning which quickly shifts eastward across the
plains during the afternoon. Temperatures are quite warm with this
system with model soundings suggesting snow levels dropping to
around 8000-8500 feet in the morning before lifting to around 8500-
9000 feet in the afternoon.  The main question with this system is
how intense precipitation rates will be and how much snow will
accumulate across the higher elevations.   H7 winds pull around to
the NNE briefly Sunday morning as the upper low center shifts into
the southeast corner of the state, providing an added upslope
component along the NE facing slopes of the Wets and Sangres to help
enhance QPF and snowfall. However this system is pretty quick moving
which should limit accumulations some, and snowfall grids are coming
up just shy of advisory criteria for elevations above 9000 feet
across the Wets, Sangres and perhaps Pikes Peak. Will hold off on
any advisories for now, but it is springtime and with the potential
for some convective snow bursts there is the outlier probability for
some spotty 8 inch snow amounts.  Will hold most areas in the 3-6"
range for now.

The remainder of the southeast plains should see a band of rain
showers and even some isolated thunderstorms spread eastward through
the afternoon.  This system is not as wrapped up or intense as the
previous one, so not everyone will get rain, but scattered pops
should at least bring a reasonable chance at some drought relieving
wetting rains for most of the plains.  Otherwise precipitation
should decrease from west to east pretty quickly in the late
afternoon/early evening.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Continued Active Pattern Over the Next Seven Days...

Sunday night...Clearing skies as the forecast area sits between
systems. Essentially dry with overnight min temps in the 20s to
lower 30s.

Monday through Thursday...An upper level low pressure system will
start to affect western Colorado Monday morning and the ContDvd Mon
aftn as it digs south across Nevada. Latest model solutions have
slowed the system down just a bit, sweeping it across Arizona on
Tue, new Mexico on Wed, then the Panhandles Wed night into Thu. The
GFS is slightly slower with movement as compared to the EC, but both
models have very similar placement. This system will bring another
significant shot of moisture to the forecast area, coming as snow
for the mts and likely rain for the lower elevations. Look for max
temps in the 50s and 60s on Mon and Tue, then in the 50s for Wed and
Thu. There is a hint that there may be some convective activity near
the mts on Tue. No mention of thunder has been added to the wx grids
just yet, but will continue to monitor this potential.

Friday and Saturday...The system slowly exits the region late Thu,
with a very small break before the next system moves. long range
models are really starting to play this storm system up, but this
far out the best recourse is to gradually push the forecast in one
direction or the other, and to monitor. The low is forecast to drop
south along the UT and NV border Fri morning, then across AZ on Sat.
This will produce a significant amount of snow for the ContDvd, but
actual pcpn potential for the e plains will depend on whether the
system either continues heading south, or veers off to the east. Stay
tuned. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An approaching system will continue to bring thickening cloudiness
to the region...with IFR CIGS developing along the Continental
Divide by 06z.  A band of showers will spread across the San Luis
Valley overnight with VFR to high end MVFR cigs and a chance for
-SHRA at KALS after 05-06Z.  Showers will spread into the I-25
corridor and eastern face of the southeast mountains by 12z...with
best window for -SHRA at KCOS and KPUB between 12z-18z.  VFR to MVFR
cigs will be possible with -shra before showers pull away to the
east in the afternoon.  Snow levels should stay around 8500 feet
during the afternoon...so mtn obscurations and IFR to localized LIFR
conditions will be possible at times across Pikes Peak...the
Wets...and Sangre De Cristos mountains.  Conditions will improve in
the afternoon. Winds will increase from the north at 15-25 kts at
KCOS and KPUB by mid morning. Winds will remain generally under 15
kts at KALS through the 24 hour taf window. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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