632
FXUS64 KSHV 080758
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
258 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The upper level ridging responsible for the string of days with
above average heat across the ArkLaTex will be spending at least one
more full day with us before the pattern begins to change. The
closed high at the apex of the ridge looks to be passing overhead as
we wake up this morning, drifting south and east through the course
of the daylight hours today, setting up shop along the Gulf Coast of
Louisiana by nightfall, and inducing another afternoon of well above
average highs. Based on the performance of today`s temperatures wrt
the forecast package, once again trended 1-2 degrees warmer than
NBM, placing area sites confidently in the mid to upper 90s by early
evening. Meanwhile, as winds become southerly for a more prolonged
period, Gulf moisture will filter back into the region, driving up
dewpoints and heat indices. "Feels like" temperatures will approach
and briefly exceed 100 degrees. While conditions will not meet heat
advisory criteria, strictly speaking, conditions are likely to
become very uncomfortable, and sensitive and vulnerable groups would
do well to use caution in regards to outdoor exposure.

Sunday will see the expected regime change begin to take shape in
the upper level synoptic pattern. The high will begin to lose its
organization as it drifts offshore and the associated upper level
ridging flattens out. Meanwhile, ridging over the northern Plains
and troughing around a closed low pushing east into the Maritimes
will collaborate to return the ArkLaTex to northwest flow. As those
who are attentive to our late spring / early summer wx patterns will
no doubt know (with no small degree of exhaustion), this regime will
favor the return of showers and thunderstorms.

However, before the precipitation begins to fall, mostly sunny
conditions for most of the day Sunday will allow temperatures to
quickly rise from low to mid 70s at daybreak into the low to middle
90s once again my midafternoon. Whether or not any upper 90s reenter
the picture will depend both on the speed of intruding cloud cover
as well as the effects of the flattening ridge. Based on the margin
of time between these contributing factors, elected to split the
difference and only trend 1-2 degrees above guidance.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As promised by the return to northwest flow aloft, a developing low
over the southern Plains will have a clear shot to swing a weak
surface boundary into the ArkLaTex early next week. The time of
arrival for showers and storms has remained rather variable from one
forecast cycle to the next, owing to the difficulties models seem to
be facing in resolving small scale disturbances in the ambient flow.

As of this writing, the consensus of model guidance paints showers
and embedded storms as beginning late overnight Sunday into Monday
at the earliest for our northernmost zones north of the I-30
corridor. Convection looks to spread south and east through the
morning, overspreading in coverage into Monday afternoon and
diminishing towards evening. A secondary round as the closed low
over the southern Plains begins to work its way east overnight looks
to begin for our east Texas zones Tuesday morning, increasing in
coverage into the afternoon once again, continuing to exhibit some
ebb and flow, but not entirely departing the Four State Region
through Wednesday.

It is worth pointing out that confidence represented in the PoPs for
this activity is not especially high, and the latest runs of long
range models waver considerably on the extent and intensity of
convective coverage.

The upper level low responsible for this unsettled pattern looks to
struggle to quickly depart east, broadening out as it drifts towards
the Gulf Coast. Guidance attempts to resolve slight chances of
precip continuing for our southeastern zones towards the end of the
week, though the impacts to the ArkLaTex may be changed
significantly by a disturbance attempting to organize itself in the
eastern Gulf. Rainfall early in the week will finally break the 90
degree tend, with highs in the 80s expected, gradually warming back
towards the 90s by the end of this extended forecast period, with
lows dropping into the 60s before climbing back into the 70s
throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 08/06Z TAF period. SKC is
expected overnight, with areas of stratus expected to develop
after 13-14Z across Deep E TX, which will spread NNE across E
TX/Wrn LA and possibly extreme SW AR through mid and late morning
as it lifts into a scattered cu field over much of the region by
midday. Can`t rule out brief MVFR cigs through mid-morning, with
the fair weather cu field more prevalent that what has been seen
the last couple of days, along with some cirrus dropping SE from
OK/AR. The cu field should diminish by/shortly after 00Z, with
the potential for some cirrus lingering through the end of the TAF
period. SSE winds 5kts or less overnight will become SSW 7-13kts
after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  96  73  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  93  71  92  67 /   0   0  10  20
TXK  96  74  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  95  73  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  96  71  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  96  71  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  97  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15