661
FXUS64 KSHV 071557
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1057 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A broad upper level high over west Texas this morning will continue
nudging is associated upper level ridging eastward today, serving
reinforce the dry and hot pattern which defined Thursday. Based on
the performance of yesterday`s highs compared to forecast models,
have elected to trend 2-3 degrees warmer than NBM guidance for this
afternoon, putting the ArkLaTex firmly in the middle 90s with a few
sites climbing closer to the upper 90s. While such air temperatures
look likely, dew points look to stay in the upper 60s, thus heat
products should not be necessary at this time. However, apparent
temperatures may still briefly reach the triple digits, and
sensitive and vulnerable groups would do well to exercise caution
in regards to outdoor exposure.

GFS guidance paints the upper level high as being directly overhead
Saturday morning and drifting south and east over the Gulf Coast
quickly. Stubborn dew points indicate that even with adequate
clearing, overnight lows will drop no lower than the lower 70s east
to upper 60s west. Ridging will still be very much in play, but the
precise extremity of afternoon temperatures is more uncertain and
will hinge on the position of the ridge, thus carrying NBM guidance
for the time being. Another afternoon of middle 90s looks very much
in store, while dry conditions abound across the Four State Region.
Ambient flow will become more southerly into the weekend, raising
dew points into the 70s on a more widespread scale. Apparent
temperatures will still be below advisory criteria, but afternoon
conditions may become increasingly uncomfortable.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sunday will see the beginning of a short-lived regime change for the
ArkLaTex, namely a break to the dry and hot pattern which closes out
this week. Before this change fully takes effect, another afternoon
of 90s is to be expected, with building clouds from the northwest.
Our upper level high will make tracks and rapidly progress east,
making way for a deepening low over the Great Lakes region to swing
its attendant trough over the midwest and into the central and
southern Plains.

As of this writing, a consensus of model guidance places the time of
arrival of showers and storms to our northernmost zones possibly as
soon as Sunday afternoon, through some individual constituent models
depict a more gradual trajectory and do not introduce rainfall until
Monday morning. Thus, watching the end of the weekend and beginning
of the new work week for our next substantive chance of rainfall,
beginning from the northwest and trekking southeast to cover the
entire Four State Region into the day Monday. This initial round
looks to diminish late Monday, only to be reinforced by a secondary
wave continuing convective activity into the morning and afternoon
Tuesday. This system will be paid close attention in coming forecast
cycles for developments in timing solutions, as well as the
possibility of severe weather and flash flooding, which much of the
region remains vulnerable to.

After the upper level trough responsible for the early week rainfall
advances to the east, the ArkLaTex looks to enter a more classic
summertime pattern, with mostly dry conditions through the night and
morning, with rounds of what is most likely sea breeze convection
pushing north into our southernmost zones of east texas and north
Louisiana during the afternoon and evening. Rainfall early in the
week will finally break the 90 degree tend, with highs in the 80s
expected, gradually warming back towards the 90s by the end of this
extended forecast period, with lows dropping into the 60s before
climbing back into the 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 07/12Z TAF period.
Extensive areas of AC cigs have developed/spread S across much of
E TX/portions of SW AR and NW LA, and will persist through much of
the morning before scattering out by midday through the afternoon.
SKC will return areawide by 00Z Saturday, and persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. ESE winds 4-6kts today will become
SSE 5kts or less after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  66  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  68  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  96  73  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...15