Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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836 FXUS61 KALY 111729 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 129 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will continue to allow for a mostly cloudy sky and cool conditions through this evening. Some partial clearing is expected for tonight into Wednesday, as the upper level low finally starts to move away from the region. Much warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold front, which is expected to bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 129 PM EDT...An upper level trough continues to be situated over the Northeastern US, with a closed upper level low continuing to sit and spin over New England. With the low heights and cyclonic flow in place, plenty of clouds are in place over the region. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast skies over the region. Even southeastern areas are fairly cloudy now and the best breaks are located close to Lake George and parts of southern VT. Any breaks will be limited, as clouds will continue to develop today thanks to the low heights in place. Will continue to keep sky cover mostly cloudy through the afternoon for nearly the entire area. Radar imagery shows no precip is occurring at this time. Deep moisture is limited, but the cyclonic flow could promote the development of a few spotty showers or sprinkles through this afternoon. Will keep POPs limited to just slight chc and mainly for high terrain and eastern areas today. Any shower would be very light and brief, with little QPF and limited impacts. Highs will be cool again, maybe 1-2 degrees warmer than Mon, but still below normal for mid June with 60s in the higher terrain to lower 70s in the Hudson Valley. The pressure gradient will be weaker today, so winds be lighter than yesterday. The upper trough will start to shift eastward into New England tonight, but with cyclonic flow still in place clouds may be slow to clear and may take until well into the night in some areas. So again will mention greater cloud cover than the NBM. Lows will be similar to recent nights, ranging from mid 40s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 50s in lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will finally exit off the New England coast on Wed with some brief short wave ridging building in. So there should be more sunshine compared to prior days. Temperatures should respond as well, as the cold pool aloft will be gone. Highs will warm back to normal levels with mid 70s to around 80 in the valleys and upper 60s/lower 70s in the mountains. Guidance indicating a low amplitude upper level disturbance approaching from the west Wed evening, and moving across our area Wed night. Due to lack of forcing/moisture, dry conditions are expected with just an increase in high/mid level clouds. A brief light shower/sprinkle can`t be ruled out though. Lows will be milder than recent nights, ranging from upper 40s in the Adirondacks to mid/upper 50s in the Hudson Valley. Heights aloft rise on Thu in wake of the disturbance passage, with short wave ridging developing. This should result in rain- free conditions and temperatures warming to above normal levels as the low level flow becomes southwesterly. Highs could reach the mid to upper 80s in lower elevations given the wind direction and change in air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) by late in the day. Heights aloft flatten out Thu night in response to a weak disturbance moving through, while farther upstream a much stronger upper level trough and associated cold front will being to approach from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. At this time it appears this system could get close enough to bring scattered showers/T-storms mainly to areas north/west of Albany before daybreak. Lows will be mild with a southerly breeze and increasing clouds, ranging from upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A brief period of unsettled conditions is expected at the start of the extended forecast period before high pressure becomes locked in over the region to bring tranquil, warm weather... Broad troughing spans much of the northeast by Friday morning with its associated upper-level low pressure system located within the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. The upper-trough will dig south and east through the region Friday with a shortwave perturbation aloft accompanying the passage of a cold front at the surface. The progression of this boundary and upper disturbance will bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. It is too early to draw upon the strength of convection Friday given uncertainties with the timing of the front, extent of available instability, and spatial coverage of showers, but with dewpoints looking to be in the upper 50s and 60s, this will be a day we continue to monitor moving forward. High temperatures Friday will look to range widely from the upper 70s to upper 80s with pockets of low/mid 70s in the SW Adirondacks and possible pockets near 90 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Upon the passage of the front by Saturday morning, atmospheric heights gradually begin to rise as the upper trough begins its exit eastward. Ridging aloft will then build in from the west as a surface anticyclone sinks in across the area from southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec. Fair weather will subsequently set in across eastern New York and western New England from Saturday through the beginning of the next work week as high pressure remains dominant across the region. There are some hints in the medium to long range models that a weak disturbance could ride along the apex of the ridge, flattening it slightly as a result, and bring some showers and maybe some embedded rumbles of thunder mainly north of Albany. However, with some differences in model depiction of this disturbance, kept PoPs maximized at slight chance for now. As a result of the cool fropa, highs Saturday will range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s and pockets of upper 60s to low 70s above 1500 ft. A warming trend then begins starting Sunday with temperatures rising just a few degrees warmer than Saturday before Monday`s highs reach the low 80s to near 90. With the strength of the upper ridge, highs later next week could become quite warm (latest NAEFS indicating 1 to ~2 STDEVs above normal for mid June), so will continue to monitor trends as lead time decreases. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday... Continued MVFR/low-VFR cigs with unrestricted vsbys expected through the near-term period to 00Z Wed as strato-cu deck at 2-5 kft persists beneath a subsidence inversion. VFR conditions then prevail at all terminals as increasing pressure tendency aids in eroding the low cloud deck, leaving sct coverage at 6-8 kft. Light northwest winds at 5 kt or less diminish to calm at all terminals after 21Z Tue-03Z Wed, before increasing out of the southwest to west at 3-5 kft after 14-16Z Wed. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Picard