Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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118 FXUS61 KALY 092332 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 732 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another upper-level disturbance will bring additional showers to the area tonight. Cool and showery weather continues into Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before high pressure brings a drying and warming trend for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 730 PM EDT, latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave rotating around the base of an upper level low near southeastern Quebec. This shortwave is pushing through far western New York at this hour. A period of rain associated with this shortwave will push eastward across the region through this evening, primarily for areas along and south of I-90. PoPs were increased slightly for this activity, which looks more organized and expansive than some CAMs suggest. Will monitor trends through the evening. Farther north, only a few isolated showers are expected through this evening but most of this activity has already ended. In the wake of this shortwave, mostly dry and cool conditions are expected for the overnight hours under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Previous Discussion: A second potent upper-level shortwave will drop across the eastern Great Lakes and track overhead later this evening and tonight, bringing another round of enhanced rain shower coverage to the eastern Catskills and southwestern New England, as well as the southwestern Adirondacks thanks to additional lake moisture, although thunderstorms should diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will thus continue across much of the area, with clearing expected to the south in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills. Overnight lows expected in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers. Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased breaks of sun are possible. As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The persistent upper-level troughing of recent days finally exits to the east on Wednesday, although a weak trailing shortwave may result in a few showers during the day. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Thursday as largely zonal flow aloft and southwesterly low and mid-level flow about surface high pressure over the Atlantic allow temperatures to warm well above normal. Following near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 80s across the region on Wednesday, hotter temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s at lower elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and especially Friday may make for more muggy-feeling conditions as the heat index approaches 90 degrees from the Capital District southward along the Hudson Valley. Guidance continues to suggest Friday may feature more active weather as a strong upper-level trough and associated surface cold front swing across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Given expected temperatures and humidity, thunderstorms are certainly possible ahead of and during the frontal passage, with the potential for some stronger storms depending on shear magnitude and if diurnal heating further destabilizes the atmosphere ahead of the boundary. Any showers or storms will exit by Saturday morning upper ridging and surface high pressure usher in more placid weather for the weekend. Temperatures look to trend downward toward seasonal norms through the weekend as drier and cooler air filter in on northwest flow beneath clearing skies. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z/Tue...VFR conditions are in place at the terminals at this time. Another area of rain showers will cross the terminals through this evening, mainly at KALB/KPSF/KPOU. While vsbys/cigs should remain mostly VFR, a period of MVFR vsbys cannot be ruled out and has been addressed by a TEMPO. KGFL will be far enough to the north to not be affected. In the wake of these showers, drier weather is expected for the overnight, though patchy MVFR stratus/stratocumulus clouds may develop at some sites. There looks to be enough clouds and dry air in place to prevent fog formation, so have left out of the TAF at this time. By Monday morning, clouds will slowly lift back to VFR levels by the afternoon, though KPSF may be the last to do so and take longer into the afternoon hours. A few isolated showers are also possible, mainly in the vicinity of KALB/KGFL/KPSF so included a VCSH for this activity. Wind will be west to southwesterly tonight decreasing to less than 10 kt, then be out of the west to northwest on Monday at 10-15 kt with a few higher gusts, especially at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Rathbun