Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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549 FXUS61 KALY 091945 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 345 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms continue this afternoon ahead of another upper-level disturbance bringing additional showers overnight tonight. Cool and showery weather continues into Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before high pressure brings a drying and warming trend later in the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Earlier steady rain is exiting eastward from New England while a lull in the precipitation has spread across much of the region. Beneath a mid and upper-level cold pool aloft, isolated to scattered showers continue to the north and west nearer to the next approaching disturbance, with some embedded thunderstorms beginning to develop upstream over the St Lawrence Valley and eastern Great Lakes. This shower activity will expand into the region through this afternoon and into the evening, especially the southwestern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and eastern Catskills. While a wet-bulb-zero height near 8 kft was observed in the 12z ALY sounding, the BUF sounding nearer to the cold pool aloft from the same time showed it near 6 kft, which would support relatively low-topped convection nonetheless being able to generate lightning and small hail as the core of cold air aloft moves overhead. Temperatures remain seasonably cool today, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Some breezy winds also remain possible into this evening, particularly across areas of high terrain and along the favored corridor for westerly flow from the Mohawk Valley across the Capital District and into the northern Berkshires. A second potent upper-level shortwave will drop across the eastern Great Lakes and track overhead later this evening and tonight, bringing another round of enhanced rain shower coverage to the eastern Catskills and southwestern New England, as well as the southwestern Adirondacks thanks to additional lake moisture, although thunderstorms should diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will thus continue across much of the area, with clearing expected to the south in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills. Overnight lows expected in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers. Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased breaks of sun are possible. As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The persistent upper-level troughing of recent days finally exits to the east on Wednesday, although a weak trailing shortwave may result in a few showers during the day. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Thursday as largely zonal flow aloft and southwesterly low and mid-level flow about surface high pressure over the Atlantic allow temperatures to warm well above normal. Following near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 80s across the region on Wednesday, hotter temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s at lower elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and especially Friday may make for more muggy-feeling conditions as the heat index approaches 90 degrees from the Capital District southward along the Hudson Valley. Guidance continues to suggest Friday may feature more active weather as a strong upper-level trough and associated surface cold front swing across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Given expected temperatures and humidity, thunderstorms are certainly possible ahead of and during the frontal passage, with the potential for some stronger storms depending on shear magnitude and if diurnal heating further destabilizes the atmosphere ahead of the boundary. Any showers or storms will exit by Saturday morning upper ridging and surface high pressure usher in more placid weather for the weekend. Temperatures look to trend downward toward seasonal norms through the weekend as drier and cooler air filter in on northwest flow beneath clearing skies. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The stratiform area of rain from this morning has shifted well to our east but BKN to OVC low end VFR ceilings continue in its wake as an upper level low persists overhead. Additional isolated showers are tracking from west to east towards ALB, GFL, and PSF this afternoon but given limited sunshine, we held off on mentioned TSRA in the latest TAF update. Will monitor trends and if enough sun can occur, some low-topped isolated thunderstorms may develop. Will amend and add a TEMPO group for thunderstorms as needed. An additional area of rain showers from the Southern Tier looks to develop this evening and track over the terminals, mainly ALB, PSF, and POU, by 00-05 UTC. GFL may remain too far north to see additional rain showers so only included VCSH there. While VFR ceilings and visibility should occur during any rain showers, ceilings look to deteriorate by or shortly after 06 UTC as low- level moisture remains trapped underneath the low-level inversion. More breaks of sun should occur through the afternoon leading to SCT sky coverage. With increased sun, west to northwesterly winds should increase by 19-22 UTC with gusts reaching up to 25 kts, especially at GFL, ALB, and PSF. Some peak winds up to 30 kts cannot be ruled out if enough boundary layer mixing can occur. Gusty winds should diminish by 01 UTC with sustained westerly winds remaining around 5-9 kts overnight. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Speciale