629
FXUS61 KBUF 041415
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer weather will be found throughout the region this
afternoon...as most areas will top out in the mid 80s with a touch
of humidity. This will be followed by a warm dry night...then
conditions will deteriorate Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slow
moving cold front will work its way through a notable more humid
airmass at that time...nearly guaranteeing showers and drenching
thunderstorms. Significant day to day cooling can be expected for
the remainder of the week...along with fairly frequent showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Partly to mostly sunny skies will be found across the region this
afternoon...as the axis of a mid level ridge will be centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. The associated subsidence should all but
guarantee issue free weather...but unlike yesterday (Mon) when we
had a cap arnd 750mb...there is nothing to prevent isolated towers
from `going up` in a diurnally destabilized airmass. This would be
more the case across the Finger Lakes...Genesee valley and portions
of the western Southern Tier.

Otherwise...it will be quite warm this afternoon. High pressure in
the lower levels based off the Jersey shore will help to circulate
H85 temps of 16-18C into our region. Simple adiabatic warming will
allow our mercury to climb to the mid 80s for most areas...with
spots like Dansville and some of the Southern Tier valley sites
tickling the 90 degree mark.

Any isolated convection from the afternoon will collapse early this
evening. This will leave a fair dry night with temps running at
least 5 degrees higher than those from last night. Mins will thus
range from 60 in some of the Srn Tier valleys and in parts of Lewis
county...to the mid and upper 60s most elsewhere.

Conditions will deteriorate on Wednesday...as the ridge axis of the
previously mentioned mid level ridge will slowly push to our east.
Immediately in its wake...an initial shortwave (pseudo warm front)
will lift northeast across our region. This elevated boundary will
essentially be the leading edge of a sub tropical airmass that will
include PWAT values that will climb to near 2 inches by late
afternoon. The boundary will prompt scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the western counties in the morning and midday to
become likely by late afternoon. Have added the mention of heavy
rain to the likely pops. Otherwise...Wednesday will be warm and
increasingly humid with Tds reaching into the mid and upper 60s.

Wednesday night will be quite unsettled throughout the region...as a
large negatively tilted trough over the Upper Great Lakes will push
the first of two cold fronts through our forecast area. Given the
moisture rich airmass that will be in place...the forcing from the
front will generate numerous showers and thunderstorms...most of
which will include pockets of heavy rain. Categorical pops will be
in place regionwide...with the most widespread activity found over
the western counties thorugh midnight...then east of Lake Ontario
during the second half of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc based ridging in the wake of an initial cold front will
keep the first part of Thursday relatively pcpn free...then
showers and thunderstorms will once again blossom during the
afternoon and evening ahead of the front.

The convection will die off during the course of Thursday
night...as much drier air in the mid levels will work its way
across the region in the wake of the front. Thursday night will
also note the return of more comfortable sleeping weather...as
mins will return to the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A closed upper level low will drop across our region this period,
with cooler but unsettled conditions. Multiple shortwave rotating
around this upper level low, combined with steepening lapse rates
will maintain showers and thunderstorm chances, especially during
daytime heating right through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through tonight...although isolated
convection cannot be ruled out across the Finger Lake and western
Southern Tier this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some showers and thunderstorms,
especially over the western counties during the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light to modest
winds and minimal waves into midweek.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday with a few rounds of thunderstorms likely. West to
southwest winds will increase on the lakes behind the cold front
Thursday through Friday with choppy conditions developing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/Apffel/JJR