Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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681 FXUS61 KBUF 311807 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through Saturday as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across Western New York. Dry and warmer weather follows for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level ridge will slowly crest over the region through Saturday as surface high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will maintain fair weather across the region through Saturday. There will be an increase in high clouds by late Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Good radiational cooling conditions expected tonight, but the air mass will be a touch milder than last night, limiting coverage potential of frost. Some patchy frost is still possible in the coldest valleys of the Southern Tier and the coldest spots of Lewis county. Overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s in the coldest spots of the western Southern Tier and Lewis county with 40s elsewhere. Modest warm advection and sunshine should boost temperatures Saturday several degrees warmer than Friday`s readings with most highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Increase in clouds from the west Saturday night ahead of a shortwave trough. Greatest lift and deeper moisture will lie across southern zones, while thinner moisture profiles and farther away from the shortwave will lead to just low chance PoPs for the North Country. Instability is marginal, with just a general risk for a few thunderstorms. This now weakening shortwave and its associated showers will exit our region Sunday night. Could be some fog developing in areas where it rained earlier Sunday. Thicker clouds and slightly cooler airmass at 850 hPa will make Sunday a good 5 degrees cooler than Saturday for WNY, while similar highs are expected both days east of Lake Ontario (where some sunshine is possible Sunday). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mid level ridge of high pressure will nose its way across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. This will pave the way for a dry day Monday with still comfortable levels of humidity. By Tuesday and Wednesday humidity will increase some, and some weakening to this ridge may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to blossom...mainly in the afternoon hours. Coverage of storms Wednesday could be a little more with additional moisture advection. The next shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave trough. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure drifting across the region providing high confidence in VFR flight conditions through Saturday. High clouds will begin to filter in from the west Saturday. Outlook... Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY. Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the Southern Tier. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers. && .MARINE... Westerly winds to around 15 knots on Lake Ontario will produce a moderate chop on the lake into this evening. Relatively quiet weather this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday with high pressure building in Sunday night through Monday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA