172
FXUS61 KBUF 260234
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1034 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight and provide us
with quiet weather...though light winds and mainly clear skies will
allow for the development of areas of fog and low clouds. The high
will then drift across our area on Sunday and provide us with a
pleasant middle day of the long holiday weekend. A complex storm
system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will then bring rather
unsettled weather into our region for Memorial Day...when some
strong thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will build across our region overnight. With
skies clearing...light winds...and plenty of leftover low-level
moisture remaining in place from today`s convection...this should
allow for the development of areas of low stratus and/or fog
overnight...with the lower clouds and fog most likely across far
western New York and the Finger Lakes (where showers/storms were
most prevalent and low level moisture will consequently be richer).

On Sunday the surface ridge axis will slide eastward across our area
during the morning...before passing off to our east during the
afternoon. Renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the
dissipation of any low stratus and fog during the first half of the
morning...leaving behind increasing sunshine and pleasant weather
for the balance of the day. This will make for a superb afternoon
(and the best of the long holiday weekend) for outdoor activities...
with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern will become amplified as an upper level trough digs
into the Mid- Western States and Upper Great Lakes region
Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from
surface low pressure over Illinois will move from south to north
across the forecast area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move
into the region with PWATS over the 90th percentile for this
time of year. The first wave of showers will be associated with
the nose of a 40kt low level jet. The showers will move through
the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. There
will likely be a break across western NY Monday morning, however
destabilization will occur with daytime heating and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a prefrontal trough
across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an approaching
cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower
Michigan. Relatively strong mid- level flow will be present as a
shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest.
Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some
strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move
northeast across the Finger Lakes region and into north central
NY into Monday evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for
the area. The moist airmass will also make for torrential
downpours and isolated flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall
amounts may exceed an inch especially east-southeast of Lake
Ontario. There will likely be drier air in the mid-levels across
western NY which may limit rainfall amounts.

The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall,
showers and storms will end from west to east across the region,
however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will
remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will
become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of
shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper
Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime
heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to
medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region
Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold
front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of
showers overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region
Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs
that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of
unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the
afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the
end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into
Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the
weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather
Friday to Saturday.

Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and
increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region overnight. With low level
moisture remaining in place...the clearing skies and light winds
attendant to the high will also lead to the development of areas of
fog and lower stratus...resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR
conditions through daybreak Sunday. The worst conditions will be
most likely from far western New York eastward into portions of the
Finger Lakes...where low level moisture will be the richest.

On Sunday...renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the
dissipation of any fog and low stratus during the first half of the
morning...followed by increasing amounts of sunshine through the
rest of the day. This will result in a return to widespread VFR
conditions areawide.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms developing. Restrictions possible.
Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the Lower Lakes Region overnight
while supplying the area with generally light winds. With a moist
airmass in place...clearing skies should allow for some areas of fog
to develop overnight...particularly across Lake Erie...the Niagara
River...and western Lake Ontario.

On Sunday the axis of the high will slide across our area in the
morning...then off to our northeast during the afternoon. This will
result in light to modest winds turning east-northeasterly under 10
knots...with fair weather prevailing outside of any areas of
dissipating early morning fog.

More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing
southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly
component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the
15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed
during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be
possible Monday.

Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given
the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity.
This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the
lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...AR/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...AR/JJR