338
FXUS63 KDLH 222016
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and clouds slowly exit our area through the afternoon
  with gusty winds being felt near the lake with a Wind
  Advisory in place till this evening

- Low chance of storms  tomorrow ahead of a more widespread
  rain maker arriving early Friday Morning

- Cooler and drier pattern takes hold starting this weekend and
  continuing into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Short Term:

As a sub 990mb low pressure system moves eastward across
Northern Ontario, we are still feeling some lingering effects
of it in our neck of the woods. Some weak rain showers and
drizzle is hanging around NE Minnesota especially closer to the
Canadian Border. Furthermore, due to a tight pressure gradient
in the area, winds have been quite gusty. Weve had multiple
gusts >40mph for areas surrounding Lake Superior. As a result, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas to accommodate
these gusty conditions. As the low treks further NE through
today, both the precipitation chances and wind gusts will drop.
One more thing to note for this afternoon for areas further
southwest from the Brainerd Lakes region stretching into
Sandstone and onto Hayward has a chance (20-30%) of showers and
a possible thunderstorm this afternoon and into the evening.
While no major impacts are expected out of them, some small hail
and stronger gusts (up to 40mph) could be seen in the stronger
cores. With diurnal help, these storms should die off later this
evening. Though tonight and into tomorrow, a cold front moving
down from Canada will become stationary in an E/W orientation
somewhere across the central portion of our CWA. There exists
the potential for some patchy frost across Northern Minnesota
with the best chances closest to the International Border where
temperatures will be flirting with the freezing mark.

Heading into tomorrow, soundings suggest the potential for
showers and a few storms to develop along the boundary later
Thursday afternoon. With upwards of 500-1000 joules of MUCAPE
and 25-30kts of shear some organized convection could present
the possibility of hail and/or gusty winds. It should be noted
that CAMs arent the most enthusiastic on these storms firing so
its chances hedge on the lower side (20-30%) of these storms
even firing in the first place. Later on Thursday and into
Friday, storms that developed earlier on Thursday across the
Dakotas in association with a shortwave trough will finally be
reaching the far western edges of our CWA. This will likely be
in a linear form with gusty winds being the biggest threat as
they move eastward with time. As the low pressure system
continues eastward Friday we should expect scattered showers and
even a few rumbles of thunder as the system moves across our
CWA. NBM is highlighting another 0.4-0.7 of rain into Saturday
morning which could exacerbate any pre-existing hydrological
concerns from the system over the past few days.

Extended Range:

Following this, the synoptic pattern will flip with a ridge
likely setting up over the Western CONUS and troughing in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes. Within the upper level flow out of
the northwest, ensembles are highlighting cooler and drier
conditions through the middle of next week where models diverge
on the future synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Low pressure will continue to pull away from the region but
gusty west to northwest winds will continue this afternoon with
good mixing and tight pressure gradient. A mix of low VFR and
MVFR ceilings will occur into early evening then they should
diminish becoming VFR for most. Scattered showers, most numerous
in northern Minnesota. A few thunderstorms may also develop
across this afternoon into early evening. Showers and any
lingering thunderstorms will end overnight. The wind will also
diminish this evening.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday morning through 18Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

West to southwest gales around 35 knots will continue this afternoon
but decrease through the evening/overnight. A Small Craft Advisory
will be needed following the Gale Warnings through at least late
evening, and for the North Shore through much of tonight.

A period of lighter winds, mostly at or below 15 knots, will develop
Thursday but this will be short-lived as another area of low
pressure moves toward the region. Easterly winds will ramp up
Thursday night into Friday with gale force gusts possible (30-60%)
Friday, highest in the Twin Ports area. There will be a chance for
thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020-021-037.
WI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde/KP
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde