Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 230911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  33  38  32 /  30 100  90  60
INL  56  36  41  32 /  20 100  90  70
BRD  47  39  47  35 /  80 100  80  20
HYR  53  36  45  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  48  34  42  33 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.