Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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377 ACUS01 KWNS 310052 SWODY1 SPC AC 310051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat, with a possibility for wind damage and hail will likely continue this evening across parts of the southern Plains and central High Plains. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, and an isolated tornado threat will be possible in parts of west Texas. A marginal severe threat is expected to continue for a couple more hours in parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern Plains/Central High Plains... The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass located across most of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas extending westward into southeast Colorado. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of west Texas, the Texas Panhandle and southeast Colorado. RAP forecast soundings early this evening from near Amarillo southward to Midland, TX show a favorable environment for supercells with large hail, with MLCAPE from 2500 to 4000 J/kg, 700-500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km, and 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. A potential will exist for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, and a tornado or two from near Lubbock southward to Midland, where the combination of instability, shear and lapse rates appears most favorable. Further to the north across the Texas Panhandle, a linear MCS is ongoing. A potential will exist for severe wind gusts along and ahead of the leading edge of the line. However, the outflow associated with the line is well out ahead of the convection. This suggests that the severe weather potential could remain more isolated as the line moves southeastward this evening into parts of northwest and west-central Texas. Further to the east into the Sabine River Valley, another severe linear MCS is ongoing. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of instability from southeast Texas into western Louisiana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are in the mid to upper 70s F, which is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Lake Charles. On this sounding, 0-6 km shear is near 30 knots and a substantial amount of directional shear exists within the 850 to 700 mb layer. This could be favorable for continued linear organization. A potential for severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cores within the line. ...Mid Missouri Valley... The latest surface analysis shows a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture from northeast Nebraska into western Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the moist axis. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings early this evening have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, which could be enough for an isolated potential for hail and strong wind gusts for a couple more hours. However, lapse rates are poor which should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 05/31/2024 $$