856
FXUS63 KFSD 080844
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers will be possible through the MO River
  corridor today. Any precipitation amounts would be very light.

- Pleasant with seasonable temperatures for Sunday and Monday.
  It will be dry both days.

- Returning chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday
  night into Tuesday. Temperatures are then forecasted to rise
  to above seasonal norms for the middle and end of next week as
  upper level ridging slowly builds across the western CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A diffuse frontal boundary and an upper level shortwave has been
producing a band of showers across the eastern portions of the CWA
early this morning. This activity is expected to exit the area by
12Z. Otherwise, weak high pressure begins to build into the region
today, and with cooling 850 mb temperatures, highs will be a touch
lower than yesterday - topping out in the lower to mid 70s. Although
it will be mostly dry, another shortwave will track through northern
NE through the day. This in conjunction with upper level lift
provided by a jet oriented NW to SE over the Northern Plains, and
developing midlevel frontogenesis, may trigger a few showers along
the MO River corridor and southward today. Even so, any
precipitation amounts would be light with soundings indicating dry
air in the low levels. Thunderstorms are not expected with
instability residing well to our south. Any isolated showers would
end by early this evening, leading to a cool night tonight with
seasonably cool lows - in the lower to mid 50s.

Stronger high pressure builds across the region for Sunday and
Monday. This will lead to a pleasant couple of days with highs in
the 70s to near 80. Winds are expected to be relatively light
through the period, although somewhat breezy west of Interstate 29
on Monday afternoon in a tightening surface pressure gradient.

Related to this, models are in good agreement on a surface trough
developing over the western High Plains during the day on Monday.
This trough will push to the east on Monday night into Tuesday,
pulling a cold front through our area by mid day on Tuesday. With
that, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
area on Monday night into early Tuesday - with increasing mid/lower
level theta e advection related to a low level jet oriented ahead of
the eastward tracking trough. Current models would indicate only
weak instability and shear over our area during this time frame, so
severe storms are not expected.

After that, models indicate the upper level pattern transitioning to
a more zonal flow through midweek, then trending toward upper level
ridging by the end of the week. With these trends, temperatures will
warm back to above normal through much of the remainder of the week,
with highs well into the 80s. There will be periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances, especially for midweek, as a series of
shortwaves traverse the zonal upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The previously mentioned scattered showers have exited the area this
evening. The second round of showers is on track to move into
locations north of highway-14 over the next hour or two. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible in this cluster of showers. The
showers are expected to track along and northeast of Wessington
Springs, SD to Sioux Falls, SD to Spencer, IA line through the
overnight hours. Confidence has grown in the possibility of MVFR
ceilings developing overnight. As such, have added MVFR ceilings to
KFSD and KSUXs TAFs. A few models show the possibility of IFR
stratus. However, confidence is too low to include in a TAF at this
time. The MVFR stratus looks to lift through the morning hours
tomorrow. A second round of showers is possible during the daylight
hours mainly across the Missouri River Valley. However, have left
out of KSUXs TAF as dry air in the low level looks to preclude any
rain from reaching the surface. Aside from rain chances, light
northerly winds will persist for the majority of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Meyers