Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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848
FXUS63 KFSD 012303
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
503 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Upper-level low finally pulling well east through the Great Lakes,
but lingering confluence zone back through the Northern Plains
between shearing upper trough and the main westerlies through the
Central Plains. Widespread lower clouds remain in place, and have
seen a few patches of drizzle and flurries through the later morning
and afternoon. As we progress through the night, depth of saturation
into the ice nucleation zone and slight cooling of temps in the
profile will suggest that solid form should dominate, and flurries
will be concentrated through the night in northwest to southeast
band along the axis of dilatation centered along a KHON to KSPW
line. Clouds will hang tough once again, and with a bit drier and
cooler airmass should be able to see lows a couple degrees cooler
than last night.

Weak surface ridging will settle across the area through Friday,
allowing some drier air to filter in on north to northwest flow.
Drying should keep flurries at bay, and should be able to break into
some sunshine in the afternoon, especially southwest MN and through
the Missouri River corridor.  Highs with the lesser wind and slow
erosion of clouds should remain mainly in the lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Saturday through Monday looking dry and mild as low pressure deepens
to the west. Lows should be in the 20s with highs in the 30s to
lower 40s. Monday should prove to be the warmest day and some chance
to climb into the 50s south of Interstate 29 but timing differences
in the models will keep forecast highs in the mid 40s. There may
also be struggles at times with cloud cover which might keep highs a
little lower.

Tuesday into Thursday is the focus for the outer periods. Models
continue to be hobbled by to phase or to not phase. Latest trends
over the past 3-4 runs of the models is to not phase which means a
more open wave and a much higher probability of the highest
precipitation remaining well south of the area. This does not mean
that a major storm closer to the four state region is impossible,
just that chances are severely diminished. Many times the models
start grabbing on to a more reliable solution 3 to 4 days out so
tomorrow and Saturday may begin to provide a more confident
solution. What is becoming more apparent, regardless of phasing or
not, is a slug of the coldest air of the season spreading into the
region on or about Tuesday night. Will keep temperatures well below
normal Wednesday and Thursday and focus the highest threat for snow
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 502 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A few flurries will be possible across the area through the
evening, otherwise MVFR ceilings will hold through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Chapman
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



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