Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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627 FXUS64 KLCH 220847 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure is along the Atlantic Coast this morning while low pressure is over the TX Panhandle and Great Lakes. A cold front stretches from North WI into OK and and North TX. The southerly flow between these systems continues to drag in gulf moisture as noted with the very summer-like humidity across the local area. Showers and storms have been ongoing through the evening and early morning from North TX to OK and AR. A ridge aloft is stretched from NE Mexico into South TX and LA and over the SE states. The ridge continues to suppress convection locally. While the cold front will remain well removed from the gulf coast a series of upper disturbances will pass across the central and northern portions of the country this afternoon and tonight. The upper ridge may flatten just enough to allow isolated to perhaps scattered storms to work into the SE TX Lakes and across Cen LA this afternoon and tonight slipping under the edge of the ridge. Some hi- res guidance even indicates convection possible to I-10 tonight as the very south end of a MCS works into the region. Have adjusted pops up accordingly. The upper ridge remains over the area, albeit somewhat weakened into Thursday and Friday. Pops look minimal if any as no system is forecast to impact the region at this time, although upper disturbances may pass close to the north. With no cooler or drier airmass expected to enter the region, temperatures will continue to run slightly above climo norms for the date. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A strong ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across central MX spreading into the Gulf Coast region through the weekend. This will keep temps above average with dry weather. Daytime highs in the lower and middle 90s will combine with TDs in the 70s to push heat indices in the 99-104 degree range. This will raise the heat risk and will be something to think about during the holiday weekend. The ridge relaxes a bit early next week, which could allow for a frontal bndry to push into the region. Uncertainty remains, but this could bring our first real shot at precip in several days and may also give a little relief from higher TDs and heat indices. 78 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours. Eastern sites, ARA, LFT continue to see mostly clear conditions through late evening before cloud cover builds from the west lowering and bordering MVFR thresholds. Western sites BPT and LCH will see these BKN decks under 3kft throughout the early morning hours keeping conditions primarily MVFR. Eastern and inland locations have more favorable chance at seeing periods of ground layer BR after 11z, therefore minimal reduction of visibility expected. Upper level cirrus decks above 10kft will continue through morning and afternoon while low level clouds become scattered under 5kft during the mid afternoon. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Winds and seas will remain somewhat elevated through today and Thursday as low pressure moves across the plains. Winds will be onshore for the period and while no rain is forecast across the coastal waters, an isolated shower can not completely be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 88 71 90 73 / 20 30 10 0 LCH 86 75 87 76 / 10 10 10 0 LFT 88 76 90 76 / 10 10 10 0 BPT 88 76 89 76 / 10 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...30