382
FXUS64 KLCH 261130
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The forecast for the Memorial Day holiday weekend remains
unchanged, with high pressure remaining the dominant feature in
our forecast. This ridge is centered over Mexico and is unusually
strong for this time of year, with heights in the 97th percentile.
This sinking air from the ridge will keep our skies mostly clear,
enhancing the diurnal heating. The subsidence associated with the
trough will also add to the already hot conditions. At the
surface, the high pressure is to our east, which is causing
consistent southern flow.

This pattern will produce highs in the low-to-mid 90s across the
CWA, with heat index values just below the criteria today with
values around 107. Monday will see the pattern reach its peak,
with actual temperatures in the high 90s across central Louisiana
and southeast Texas. We could even see a few isolated spots reach
triple digits. With the abundance of low-level moisture, heat
index values will soar well above the 108 criteria, especially in
the interior of southeast Texas. A Heat Advisory will be issued
for inland counties and parishes on Monday afternoon.

During the afternoon/evening on Monday, the ridge will begin to
retreat. During this time, a short-wave trough will dip into the
southeast. This feature will produce some decent rain chances in
the evening, with PoPs around 20%. While widespread showers are
unlikely, favorable CAPE, shear, and lapse rates provide a high
ceiling for any thunderstorms that do manage to form. The SPC has
placed parts of Rapides and Avoyelles under a Slight Risk (2/5)
while the rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk (1/5) for
severe weather. The main threat will be strong downbursts and
large hail. In particular, the downburst threat will be one to
watch closely, with DCAPE averaging over 1000 J/kg for Monday
afternoon and the MBURST index going above 9, indicating that
storms that do form could produce damaging winds.

Tuesday will see more widespread cloud cover as the ridge
continues to retreat and a weak boundary moves across the CWA.
This will lead to sporadic showers and thunderstorm activity, but
shear and CAPE will be less favorable. Still, the SPC has placed
us under a Marginal Risk (1/5) for Tuesday. The boundary will
also provide us with a nice shot of drier and cooler air, with
temperatures dropping back into the low 90s and Heat Index values
around 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Large mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. with ridging
aloft over Mexico expected to amplify Wednesday through next
weekend. This will generally keep a west northwest to northwest flow
aloft over the region during this period. Southeast winds expected
to keep increased low level moisture across the area. This, combined
with periodic weak upper level disturbances within the northwest
flow aloft, should be enough to generate isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. Blended
guidance generally shows a 20-40% range each afternoon. Lows each
morning in the upper 60s to near 70 north of I-10, lower 70s further
south. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Surface obs show patchy fog across the coastal terminals with MVFR
conditions. Through 14Z MVFR ceilings will also be a concern but
after sunrise VFR skies will remain through the rest of the TAF
period. Winds will be from the south around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

ASCAT imagery from this evening shows winds between 10 and 15
knots across our waters, with a fetch of slightly higher winds in
the western Gulf. Because of this the Caution Statement for small
craft will be allowed to expire this afternoon. Buoys and
Altimery show waves around 4 feet with a period of around 6
seconds. Waves will be higher in the western waters of the CWA,
with waves reaching 6 feet.

Starting on Monday evening, the high
pressure to our east will become weaker, which will reduce our
PGF, which will turn decrease our winds. From Tuesday through the
end of the week, sea conditions will be benign, with wave heights
below 5 feet and winds less than 15 knots. Little to no convection
is expected this week in our waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  74  95  70 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  88  78  93  75 /   0  10  10   0
LFT  91  78  94  76 /   0  10  20  10
BPT  90  78  94  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14