516
FXUS64 KLCH 050930
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Regional radars show this morning`s MCS driving southeast across
the Arklatex and NE TX, potentially on track to reach our NW zones
by 11-12Z. This system is occurring in association with a
pronounced disturbance traveling southeast around the periphery
of a ridge building over the SW US.

Things are currently quiet across the CWA, with light to moderate
southerly winds maintaining an influx of warm and moist gulf air,
with some patchy low clouds across the area. Conditions are very
warm and muggy along and south of the I-10 corridor this morning,
with temperatures around 80 degrees and dewpoints in the upper
70s. Further north, temperatures are more on par with early June
climo values, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The active pattern will continue today, with the gradually
weakening MCS expected to travel south and southeast through the
area today. The system will be capable of producing some strong to
possibly damaging wind gusts as it moves through the area through
the morning hours, and SPC continues to advertise a MRGL risk
(level 1 out of 5) across the region. The airmass also remains
unusually moist (PWATs progged to peak around or above 2 inches
today), and this will also contribute to the potential for some
heavy rainfall with high rainfall rates. Unfortunately, soils
remain saturated or nearly saturated from the recent wet pattern,
so the likelihood for localized flooding will continue to be an
issue. The area remains in a MRGL outlook for excessive rainfall
(level 1 out of 4) per the latest WPC Day 1 outlook.

The disturbance aloft will slide southeast across the lower MS
Valley tonight into early Thursday, with a weak surface boundary
sagging into the area. Lingering moisture, combined with daytime
heating, should help focus some scattered showers or storms along
the boundary on Thursday. Rain chances should begin to diminish
by Friday as the ridge over the southwest states begins to build
east across TX. Increased insolation and warming temperatures
aloft will allow daytime highs to climb into the lower to middle
90s across the area Friday afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Low PoPs should prevail across the area through the weekend, with
any activity diurnally driven. Otherwise, the western ridge will
continue to exert its influence over the area as it builds east
and southeast over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Daytime temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will continue to be hot, with highs in the
lower to middle 90s each afternoon. At this time, mixing should
keep dewpoints from becoming too oppressive, and this will keep
heat index values below advisory criteria, with maximum values
between 100 and 105 degree.

The ridge will begin to break down late Sunday into Monday as a
shortwave trough digs over the central and eastern US. This system
will usher a frontal boundary into the region on Monday. Moisture
pooling in advance of the system will raise PWATs back to around
2 inches. This, combined with instability and low level forcing,
will help generate scattered showers and storms across the area
during the day Monday. Guidance becomes somewhat muddled by this
timeframe however, and should the front get enough of a "push"
offshore by high pressure building south (per the ECMWF), then
briefly drier conditions and slightly "cooler" temperatures could
be in the offing. However, the GFS and Canadian stall the front
near the coast, with additional disturbances potentially creating
another period of active weather through midweek.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR ceilings are anticipated to redevelop early Wednesday and
linger through sunrise. Another MCS is also expected to affect the
region Wed with lower vis and ceilings along with gusty winds.
Ahead of the incoming line of storms winds will be south to
southeast. Winds may veer northwest for a brief period behind the
MCS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Small craft exercise caution headlines will continue for the
waters west of Intracoastal City through midday, with elevated
southerly winds expected to persist before diminishing this
afternoon. Otherwise, light to moderate southerly winds will
prevail over the northern Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
week. Occasional passing disturbances aloft will provide rounds
of scattered showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days,
with rain chances decreasing by the weekend.

24

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  70  90  69 /  60  40  10   0
LCH  89  75  91  74 /  50  20  30   0
LFT  91  76  91  75 /  40  30  40   0
BPT  90  75  93  74 /  50  20  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05