Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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610 FXUS64 KLCH 291020 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 520 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A stationary boundary stretches across the coast, while high pressure is situated to the east. Upstream convection located in Texas will be the main weather feature for Wednesday. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather in central Louisiana, but conditions do not look particularly favorable, especially with a cooler and drier airmass in place. On Thursday and Friday, we will have a moderately unstable environment with favorable conditions that will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We could also see the sea breeze boundaries form during the afternoon, which can provide areas of local convergence. Temperatures during this time will be fairly typical for this time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will start to build on the east coast, and we will see onshore flow return, along with more humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Over the weekend, with surface high centered off to the east just off the southeast US coast, southerly flow will bring in plenty of Gulf moisture allowing muggy and humid conditions to continue. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will be centered over western old Mexico and this will allow west-northwest flow aloft with a general weakness over the forecast area. Therefore, disturbances aloft will be able to interact with the moist air mass to produce a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours for Saturday and Sunday. Into early next week, some differences in the global models make for a lower confidence forecast. What does seem certain is that southerly low level flow will persist and bring in Gulf moisture with humid conditions. What is uncertain is how much the upper level ridge over Mexico will strengthen and build into the forecast area. At this time will have a general lowering of pops as the expectation is the upper level ridge will build over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A second round of showers will be possible between 12Z to 16Z as a disturbance moves through the region. I removed thunderstorms from the TAFs as the atmosphere is worked over from yesterday and the line seems to be mostly stratiform rain. Still we could see MVFR CIGS/VIS during the early morning. After the passage of the disturbance we will have VFR conditons with a high overcast cloud deck. Winds will be light and variable this forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Current observations show light and variable winds offshore. Winds will shift to become offshore around 10 to 15 knots later in the week as high pressure builds to the east. Looking at buoys and altimeter data waves, they are at or below 4 feet in the Gulf. This aligns well with current model guidance, and waves are expected to stay below 5 feet through the weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms may form in the coastal waters, but strong to severe storms are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 68 86 68 / 40 30 70 30 LCH 89 74 87 74 / 40 30 70 20 LFT 91 74 88 74 / 20 20 60 20 BPT 88 75 88 75 / 50 30 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14