Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
930 FXUS64 KMAF 012325 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Another active afternoon is ahead today, with severe weather possible region-wide. An outflow boundary from a nocturnal MCS that developed over the high plains of eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains and subsequently moved south has continued its slow progression across the area, and has largely "washed out" early this afternoon. This feature has aided in pushing the dryline westward, with dewpoints in the 60s as far west as the western mountains (and beyond). Concurrently, a shortwave in the quasi-zonal/weak southwesterly flow aloft continues its gradual eastward progression, evidenced by latest water vapor imagery and RUC analysis. This feature will serve to increase ascent, with the first storms of the day already beginning to develop over the Sacramento Mountains, with towering cumulus observed over the Davis Mountains. CAMs have been consistent with storms developing first over the higher terrain where the aforementioned shortwave, differential heating, and help from topography will produce what have the potential to be rapidly strengthening storms this afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible, including large to very large hail given steep lapse rates, damaging wind gusts, and despite generally weak low-level shear, supercells that manage to develop and propagate southeastward will lend to a non-zero tornado threat. Given expected trends, locations along and west of the Pecos River look to have the greatest potential to see severe storms, with storms progressing eastward through late evening, likely evolving into one or more multicell clusters or line segments and transitioning to more of a wind and heavy rain threat. In the wake of storms tonight, low-level moisture will remain elevated given persistent southerly to southeasterly surface flow. Thus, lows will be on the mild side, and fairly close to normal for late May, in the 60s for most and 70s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos. After a comparatively cooler day today, the heat cranks back up on Sunday, with highs on target to top out in the middle 90s to lower 100s for most. Even the mountains will climb into the 90s, with Heat Advisory conditions likely to return for the higher terrain of Southwest Texas as well as the Big Bend Region. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas Sunday afternoon and early evening. In addition to the heat, yet another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible, mainly across eastern areas in closer vicinity to the eastward-moving dryline. Similar to previous days, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Storms Sunday evening will quickly exit to the east, with a quiescent night then to follow as lows drop into the 60s west and lower 70s east. JP && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Little change to the long term forecast as temperatures trend upward for much of the coming week. Zonal flow across the region will keep the area dry. Most locations reach into the upper 90s and low 100s each afternoon with portions of the Big Bend reaching into the 110s. A weak ridge develops and moves nearby Wednesday and into Thursday. A weak cold front looks to be pushed through by the end of the week that could bring temperatures closer to normal for a few and even introduces a chance for showers. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers and storms will impact terminals west and southwest of the Pecos River until rain moves out of the area by 03Z-06Z when CIGs lift from MVFR to VFR and VFR VIS prevails. MVFR VIS or lower is likely in any storms that impact terminals, along with gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain and hail, and frequent lightning. CIGs lower to MVFR in stratus from 12Z to 17Z for terminals over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau before CIGs again lift to VFR. Southeasterly winds veer to southerly by 17Z-20Z at all terminals aside from PEQ and FST, with weakest winds Sunday afternoon through evening likely over the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 93 71 101 / 30 10 10 10 Carlsbad 65 101 66 101 / 40 0 0 0 Dryden 72 97 74 102 / 40 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 69 100 69 104 / 40 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 97 62 99 / 40 10 0 0 Marfa 57 96 57 96 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 95 71 101 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 69 95 72 101 / 30 10 10 0 Wink 70 102 68 104 / 30 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94