782
FXUS63 KPAH 051110
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, ending this
  evening as a frontal boundary passes through the area.

- High temperatures will cool from the mid to upper 80s
  Thursday and Friday to the upper 70s and low 80s for the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will pass through the area from the west and northwest
through early this afternoon. As this happens, a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms will push through the area along and ahead
of the frontal boundary. Forcing isn`t particularly strong along the
boundary, but enough to keep scattered showers and storms
through early afternoon. Instability is expected to be around
500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front, this will allow for thunder,
but storms aren`t expected to be strong or severe this morning
as shear is fairly weak ahead of the front. Additional showers
and storms may develop along the front over the eastern portions
of the area, western KY into southwest IN as the frontal
boundary exits to the east. High pressure will then begin
building in from the northwest overnight, bringing and end to
the precipitation.

Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure continues to build across the
region.

A closed low is still expected to set up over the Great Lakes for
the weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for
northwest flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow
around the upper-level low, especially Saturday into Sunday. This
will allow for intermittent increases in cloud cover and at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Expect
precipitation chances to increase as it becomes more clear on the
timing of each one of the aformentioned disturbances. This will also
lead to a bit cooler conditions across the Quad State area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A frontal boundary passing through the area today will touch off
showers and storms through mid afternoon before ending from west
to east. Timed out the storms at the beginning of the TAF period
for each site, most confidence in the western sites (CGI, MVN,
PAH). Brief MVFR ceilings/visibility will be possible with the
heavier rainfall. Improving conditions can be expected later in
the afternoon and especially tonight into Thursday as high
pressure builds into the Quad State.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC