Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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237 FXUS63 KILX 050744 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front should exit to the east of Illinois around early afternoon. - A mainly dry pattern sets up starting this afternoon. A small (10- 20% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as some MCS type systems pass to our south. - High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. Severe threats appear to be low with these storms. These storms will be scattered in a semi-line formation. As it works eastward, locally heavy rainfall is possible. The activity should be out of the area by 18/19z this early afternoon (based on the 06z HRRR), exiting to the east into Indiana. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. However, confidence is low so only have 15-20% POPs in the forecast for late this evening through tonight. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle. This will allow a mostly dry period for the extended forecast. The next tiny chance for rain comes Saturday and Sunday as MCS activity transverses to our south. There is a 10-20% chance that the systems move just north enough to affect our southern portion of the CWA. As we move closer we can get a better idea of the exact location of these southern MCS systems and if they will directly affect us here in central and southeastern Illinois. Daytime temperatures following this cold front will hang around the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Then it will warm back up into the 80s starting Wednesday afternoon. CPC shows below normal temperatures for the 6-10 day period and near normal to above for the 8-14 day period. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A few scattered storms remain near KBMI, but elsewhere there will be a lull in precip for a few hours. Scattered showers and storms return as a front moves from west to east across the area between 08-12z. Behind the front, winds turn to northwesterly and ceilings drop to low MVFR. IFR ceilings can`t be ruled out but appeared too spotty to include in the TAFs. By late morning, skies return to VFR and trend towards less cloud coverage. Erwin && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$