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173
FXUS62 KILM 131353
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
953 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low
pressure passes offshore Friday. A mainly dry cold front will
move through Saturday followed by high pressure again from the
north bringing temperatures and humidity down a bit for early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thick upper level clouds along the coast are keeping
temperatures cooler than inland counterparts. Afternoon highs
have been lowered a degree or two along the coast where these
clouds are expected to continue ahead of an afternoon/synoptic
aided sea breeze.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall quiet weather expected to continue through the near
term forecast period under weak high pressure. Will be watching
convection along a broad baroclinic zone well offshore but any
guidance shower activity with this feature seems a bit bullish
this far west citing the dry environment it will need to
navigate. Highs today with a little more cloud cover to overcome
will be in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Lows Friday morning
should check in around the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Weak low pressure, likely non-tropical in nature, should
not be too far offshore Friday before moving farther away to the
northeast later in the day. On the backside of this low, a weak cold
front should be approaching SE NC later Friday night. The front
looks to move through the forecast area Saturday, although won`t be
bringing much of an air mass change as dewpoints likely won`t lower
too much. Rain chances will remain limited due to the lack of
moisture/forcing.

Temps should be a good bit above normal due to more offshore flow
Friday and frontal compression/ridging Saturday. Highs Friday should
be in the lower to mid 90s most locales with heat indices peaking
not too much hotter as we expect dewpoints to lower/mix out a bit
during the day. However, it will be hotter and a bit more humid
Saturday with highs mostly in the mid 90s (possibly a few upper 90s
near the Pee Dee/Lowcountry) and peak heat indices near 100 degrees
for much of the area. Fortunately, such heat indices are below our
Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) but still expect a pretty muggy
day. And there won`t be much relief each night with lows near/above
70 most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A bit more comfortable weather is expected early next week
as high pressure prevails from the north. Although a coastal trough
could develop late in the period moisture will be rather limited and
thus not much rain is expected. Temps should generally stay near
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some sporadic observations showing up with BR and lower
visibilities. Fortunately these reside outside of the terminals
and hopefully will remain so. VFR conditions expected to
continue through the period.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...East to slightly northeast winds will
continue across the waters between weak high pressure inland and
a broad baroclinic zone well offshore. Speeds will be 15-20
knots today and decrease somewhat by Friday morning. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet with a few five footers mixed in later
today and this evening coinciding with the stronger winds.

Friday through Monday...Weak low pressure, likely non-tropical in
nature, will be situated not too far to the east of the Carolina
coast to start the period. The low should move away to the northeast
later Friday and be followed by a weak cold front which should move
through Saturday. High pressure will then build in from the north
for early next week. Although winds/seas will be elevated at times
we do not anticipate conditions reaching Small Craft Advisory
levels.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK