689
FXUS64 KHUN 111543
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1043 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1043 CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Upper-level trough is continuing to move away from the TN Valley,
promoting northwesterly flow at 500 mb. This promotes subsidence,
helping to reinforce the surface high pressure, centered over the
Ohio Valley.

Clear to partly cloudy skies should prevail through the rest of
the day. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s in the
mountains to the lower 80s closer to the TN River. Rain chances
remain near zero though the rest of today. Expect northerly winds
around 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Latest short term model consensus suggests that the southern
stream disturbance (noted above) will spread southeastward into
the central Gulf of Mexico over the course of the short term
period, as a strong 500-mb subtropical ridge (initially centered
across northern Mexico) builds eastward across the southern Plains
and southeastern CONUS. Subsidence beneath the expanding mid-
level anticyclone will contribute to further drying of profiles
aloft, and with only gradual modification of boundary layer
dewpoints anticipated (given the projected orientation of broad
surface ridge across the region), dry conditions will continue
along with a notable warming trend in afternoon high temperatures,
which should reach the u80s-l90s by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The center of the mid-level high is predicted to become centered
directly across the TN Valley by Saturday, with the warming trend
continuing as mostly sunny skies during the afternoon will support
highs in the mid 90s on Friday and mid/upper 90s on Saturday (but
roughly 5-10 degrees cooler both days atop the Cumberland
Plateau). Unfortunately, it appears as if low-level moisture will
begin to pool ahead of a weakening cold front that will drift
southward into the TN Valley before stalling on Friday
afternoon/evening as the parent surface low ejects northeastward
across Quebec, and the increase in dewpoints will result in heat
indices in the 95-99F range Friday and 98-102F range Saturday.

The 500-mb high will begin to shift east-northeastward into the
NC/VA vicinity on Sunday and Monday, allowing for a gradual
increase in deep-layer SSE flow across the TN Valley by early next
week. Although this configuration will eventually contribute to
gradual moistening of the atmospheric column (and a subsequent
increase in clouds and showers) this will likely not occur by
Sunday, and highs are forecast to reach the m-u 90s, with heat
index values in the 100-105F range. We have indicated a low
(20-30%) POP for showers and thunderstorms returning to most of
the region Sunday night/Monday, and have indicated lower afternoon
temps on Monday as a result of this. However, if the subtropical
ridge remains more influential (as indicated by several global
models), then the hot/dry pattern may continue for several
additional days next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

No changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR
conditions will continue, with a few high-level clouds expected at
times and a few lower-level Cu possible during the peak of the
diurnal warming cycle this aftn. Light NNE sfc winds will back to
NNW and increase to 5-10 kts 16Z, before becoming lgt/vrbl late
this aftn. Although non-zero, the risk for BR/FG development at
the two terminals early Wednesday morning appears rather low attm.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70