Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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543 FXUS63 KLBF 051744 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and sunny conditions persist today and tomorrow, with the area under the influence of upper level high pressure. - Increasing moisture Friday brings the return of thunderstorm potential, with a threat for a few strong to severe storms Friday evening. - Thunderstorm potential persists into the weekend and early next week, though the threat for severe weather is unclear at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Currently, clear skies prevail across the area, with light southwest winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s. Aloft, upper ridging continues to amplify across the southwestern US, with rising heights across the central Plains. For today and tomorrow, the area will remain under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridge, as it strengthens and anchors over the Desert Southwest. Continued warm advection will push highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s across southwest Nebraska today, with lower 80s expected further north. Lesser boundary layer moisture today should temper any threat for heat concerns, even in areas that climb into the low 90s. The lower temperatures across northern Nebraska are driven by a backdoor cool front progged to drop into the area this afternoon, in association with a deep surface low across northern Ontario. Behind this backdoor cool front, stronger H7-h85 flow will promote increasing gusts across northern Nebraska, with gusts around 30 miles per hour this afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected further south across western and southwest Nebraska as well, though only around 20-25 miles per hour amid weaker low level flow. By tonight, H5 heights will climb to above the 90th percentile climo as the upper ridge continues to amplify. However, the area remains post-frontal in the low levels and this will keep highs "cooler" in the low to middle 80s. Subsidence aloft amid continued height rises will keep skies clear again through the day tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 By Friday, surface ridging will slide off to the east of the area, with southerly flow strengthening in its wake. This leads to good northward moisture return, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to perhaps even the low 60s by Friday afternoon. Discrepancies remain in ensemble/deterministic guidance with the placement of a lee trough across western Nebraska, and this will help to drive the placement of any severe weather. As for the severe threat, modestly increasing instability and deep layer shear ahead of the lee trough looks to be adequate to support updraft organization. Forecast soundings suggest initial largely straight-line hodographs, suggesting a threat for large hail. Additionally, high LCLs and inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles would support a threat for damaging winds as well. Weak convergence along the aforementioned surface trough should keep convection widely isolated, and primarily driven off the high terrain of WY/CO. By late evening, should any discrete convection remain, a modest increasing southerly low level jet does lead to increasing low level hodograph curvature, though confidence in any tornado threat still remains low. At least some severe threat looks to develop on Friday evening, though mesoscale details will need to be resolved to determine the area of greatest threat. Additional thunderstorm chances exist Saturday, though a cold front is anticipated to push through the area during the afternoon and timing difference remain in current guidance. This leads to low confidence, with some guidance suggesting an early enough passage to limit the bulk of any severe threat. Confidence wanes even further as we head through the weekend and early next week, with some ensemble/deterministic guidance suggesting this frontal boundary will reach the Gulf of Mexico and scour moisture out of the deeper moisture in its wake. Should this verify, lesser thunderstorm chances will exist for at least a couple days, before moisture begins to return to the High Plains into the middle and late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Aviation concerns will focus on gusty winds. A frontal boundary continues to track south and east through the area. This boundary has already cleared VTN but should clear LBF early in the period, leading to a veering of winds in its wake. Gusts subside this evening but should redevelop after sunrise on Thursday with peak speeds around 25 knots, mainly for north central Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...NMJ