Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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539 FXUS64 KLUB 310533 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 This morning`s convection has thrown a small monkey wrench into today`s severe forecast. The outflow boundary has pushed much further south than expected and, as of 18Z, stretched from Tatum, New Mexico to near Seminole to Snyder. This boundary has stabilized the airmass across most of the FA to some degree by significantly lowering surface temps. This also shifts the main tornado threat further south than originally expected. Storms are expected to develop by 3-4 PM CDT across eastern New Mexico and push into the FA by 4-5 PM CDT. Though forecasted MUCAPE has been lowered from 2000- 4500 to 2000-3500 J/kg, it will still be plenty enough instability for storms to be sustained and, combined with bulk shear of near 50 knots, allow storms to be strong to severe. Baseball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph are still the expected threats, but a gust to 80 mph cannot be ruled out. Discrete storms should form into an MCS as they move to the edge of the Caprock. As PWATs will be near/over 2 inches and many areas across the Rolling Plains has already received heavy rainfall, there will be a risk for flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued from 00Z-09Z tonight for our eastern two rows of counties. As for the tornado risk, as mentioned previously, it will be along the remnant gust front and mostly to our south. Storms should exit our eastern zones before 12Z. A cold front will push into the region by tomorrow morning with the passage of the upper shortwave that is aiding with developing today`s storms. This should help to keep highs in the 70s and 80s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 An unsettled semi-zonal flow remains in place through the weekend with moist southerlies in the low levels pushing PWATs to 1 inch or greater over much of the forecast area. Similar to recent nights, Friday night has potential once again for storms initially in northeast New Mexico to make headway southeast through the southern TX Panhandle along a theta-e gradient. PoPs remain greatest across our northern zones for this nocturnal round of precip with a gradual downturn Saturday morning. Shortwave ridging for much of the day on Saturday along with a dryline anchored well to our west looks to keep much of the region on the quiet side during the daytime. By late day, increased ascent from both an approaching shortwave trough and upslope flow along the dryline in eastern NM should easily spur storm development that leads to another efficient nocturnal rain event, perhaps more significant than prior nights given PWATs nearly 150% of normal. Will disregard the NAM`s dry scenario as it is a southerly outlier (for now) with the track of the shortwave trough. Severe prospects would also be in play given sizable MLCAPEs and enough deep layer shear for both supercells and MCSs. For Sunday, the dryline mixes out of NM and settles somewhere on the Caprock underneath flat westerly flow. The dryline by itself may be able to eke out some storms by peak heating in lieu of weaker background forcing, so will keep NBM`s PoPs intact which fit well with global ensemble means. Deeper westerly flow by Monday brings an abrupt halt to our rain chances as the dryline shifts off the Caprock and contends with a strengthening EML. Although our forecast remains dry, GFS soundings at CDS show convective temps within reach which may squeak out a lone storm. This overall dire theme takes a turn for the worse by Tuesday as thicknesses jump in even drier westerly flow resulting in triple digit highs for many locales. Relief from the heat is on the way as soon as Wednesday thanks to a vigorous cyclone progged to track over the northern plains. The ECMWF is notably sharper and deeper with this trough which lends itself to even cooler temps for us, but will stick with the modest cooling of the NBM until ensemble spreads lessen. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Low confidence forecast early this morning given uncertainties regarding the potential for overnight convection. All sites are expected to remain VFR through most of the overnight hours, with an MVFR cloud deck expected to attempt to develop near sunrise. An area of TS currently over the west-central Texas Panhandle is expected to shift southward overnight. Confidence is highest in TS reaching PVW and LBB during the hours surrounding sunrise, with slightly lower TS potential at CDS. This activity is likely to bring a period of erratic gusty winds in addition to a period of more persistent MVFR CIGs. After this convection clears the area to the south by mid-morning, VFR is expected to return to all sites and continue through the rest of the day on Friday. Additional TS will be possible Friday afternoon and evening especially at PVW and LBB, but confidence in this is too low for a TAF mention at this issuance. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ025-026-031- 032-037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...30