276
FXUS63 KPAH 262330
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A final line of storms is expected to move southeast through
  the region this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  tornadoes will remain a threat tonight.

- The flood threat remains as many areas saw several inches of
  rainfall. The flood watch is unchanged.

- A much needed respite from the active weather pattern is in
  store for the bulk of next week, as we return to drier weather
  and near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Visible satellite shows extensive clearing taking place behind a
convective complex now moving across central Kentucky. While
convective overturning has been evident over the past few hours,
surface observations are beginning to show boundary layer recovery
taking place. Most, if not all available guidance shows scattered
development of showers and storms to the west and northwest this
afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to continue to strongly destabilize
with CAPE values reaching upwards of 3000+ J/kg. The
expectation is that updrafts will be able to take advantage of
this instability and could quickly become severe. The
thermodynamic and kinematic fields that these storms will be
moving into will be more than sufficient for severe weather into
the evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these
storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible.
The main questions surrounding this evening is convective mode,
specifically how long discrete convection lasts before becoming
linear. A strong tornado threat will especially be associated
with any supercell mode, with the primary hazard becoming
widespread damaging winds with linear modes.

The flood threat will also continue tonight with heavy rainfall
rates. Antecedent conditions will be favorable with recent radar
estimates of 3-5 inches of rainfall across portions of SE MO and W
KY. Any additional heavy rainfall will only aggravate ongoing
conditions and could lead to further flash flooding. The flood watch
will continue through 12Z Mon.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Monday bringing much
drier weather to much of the work week. Cooler temperatures and
lower relative humidity are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High
pressure eventually moves eastward across the Great Lakes with
an upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains
bringing weak height falls across the area. This will bring a
slight increase in PoPs for Friday and into the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase back to near or above normal
with southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Severe convection will move across the region this evening.
Scattered storms will be possible ahead of the main line which
plows through between 00-05z from northwest to southeast. Could
see wind gusts exceed 50 kts with these storms. Overnight, could
see some MVFR cig development mainly east of the Mississippi
River. Guidance hints at EVV Tri-State for area most likely for
this. Can`t rule out some patchy fog development overnight too.
Most of tomorrow will feature mostly clear skies along with NW
winds of 7-10 kts. May have some gusts of 15-18 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP