038
FXUS64 KBMX 141724
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024

Mostly sunny skies, light northeasterly flow, and rising heights
will promote dry and hot conditions as we head into the weekend. The
center of the 591dam ridge will shift from Texas to the Deep South
through tomorrow resulting in near record temperatures across
Central Alabama. The dry conditions will cause RH to mix down into
the 30 to 40 percent range both today and tomorrow, but highs in the
mid to upper 90s will push heat indices towards Heat Advisory
criteria. Some locations may reach a heat index of 105F, but it`s
more likely that we will see values ranging from 100-103F. Hot
nonetheless, especially this early in the season, and heat-
sensitive individuals or those who will be spending time outdoors
will need to factor in extra safety considerations for the heat.
Little relief is expected overnight as lows remain anomalously
warm with values ranging from the lower to mid 70s. The center of
the ridge will be directly overhead by Saturday evening.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024

The extended period will feature predominantly hot and dry weather
across central Alabama. An amplified 500 millibar ridge axis will be
positioned across the Mid Atlantic on Sunday with weak southerly
flow across the state. This will help low level/Gulf moisture slowly
creep northward across the region. We may see some isolated diurnal
storms but most areas will remain rain free on Sunday.

The combination of temperatures in the middle to upper 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will produce maximum heat
indices between 100 and 104 - nearing advisory criteria. Low
temperatures will also be quite warm allowing very little diurnal
relief. This prolonged period of above normal temperatures, although
below traditional advisory levels, will require more caution than
usual for heat-sensitive groups or those with prolonged outdoor
activities on Sunday and potentially into early week.

Monday and perhaps into Tuesday looks to be more of the same with
the newest guidance showing the H5 ridge hanging tough across the
Mid Atlantic region. The blended numbers are a touch cooler for both
both days with some higher pops in the west/southwest (particularly
on Monday). However, the 12z guidance trends lead me to believe that
the NBM may be a touch on the low side (for temps) on
Monday/Tuesday.

The mid level ridge begins to break down slightly by mid week due to
height falls/energy impulses to our west. Overall, the pattern still
looks dry/mostly dry with above normal temps through the end of the
upcoming work week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024

A strong ridge will provide widespread stability across Central
Alabama through the next 24 hours. VFR conditions are expected to
continue with light and variable winds and some fair weather cu this
afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected this afternoon through Saturday
afternoon with min RH ranging from 30-40 percent. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly across
southern and eastern areas. 20-foot winds should average less than
7 mph with directional variability through Monday morning. Some
thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as well, but highest
chances will shift to the western areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  95  70  96 /   0  10   0  10
Anniston    71  96  73  95 /   0  10   0  20
Birmingham  74  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  73  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Calera      74  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  20
Auburn      74  95  74  94 /   0  10  10  20
Montgomery  73  98  74  97 /   0  10  10  20
Troy        71  98  73  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...86/Martin