084
FXUS61 KCAR 091923
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
323 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low will slowly track northeast through the Maritimes through
Wednesday night, bringing a series of weak troughs of low pressure
across the region as it does so. A warm front slowly lifts to the
north Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the
west on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave will continue to cross the forecast area early this
evening, dragging numerous rain showers through the region this
evening. Rain will begin to taper off into the overnight hours
across the Downeast region as the low exits into the Canadian
Maritimes. As for the northern half of the forecast area, wrap
around moisture behind the back side of the low will persist the
threat for rain for the north through the night. With persistent
overcast skies and lingering low level moisture, low
temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 50s.

For the day on Monday, numerous to widespread rain showers
across the north will begin to taper off as the low continues to
exit further to the east. However, PWATs remain around 1 inch
due to the moisture advection of the weekend, and with diurnal
heating, will result in afternoon convective showers. A few
thunderstorms are possible for Monday afternoon, but CAPE will
be limited with more stable air working in ahead of the next
ridge of high pressure, so thunderstorm threat is limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A full latitude trough continues to build into the region
Monday night. A closed upper low develops over the region
Tuesday, then slowly lifts northeast across Maine as it
gradually opens again though Wednesday.

The result will be mainly diurnally driven convection through
this time frame. The cold pool with the upper low continues to
modify through the period, so expect any showers to be more
widespread on Tuesday than on Wednesday. With that said, the
forcing is not impressive, so do not expect more than scattered
coverage on Tuesday, mainly across the North, and then only
isolated coverage on Wednesday just across the North. Noting
the warming cold pool aloft and limited dynamics, while a
rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, there is not
sufficient confidence in its occurrence to place it in the
forecast at this time.

Lows Monday night should be near normal, with highs on Tuesday
around 5 degrees above normal. Lows Tuesday night should be a
few degrees above normal and highs on Wednesday should be a
degree or two warmer than those on Tuesday.

With plenty of low level moisture, along with some clearing
overnight and light winds, cannot rule out some patchy fog late
at night/early each morning as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The northern stream portion of the upper trough exits to the
northeast Wednesday night, allowing for weak northern stream
shortwave ridging to build in overnight. It should be dry as a
result.

A northern stream shortwave passes Thursday bringing with it a
chance of showers and a slight chance of thunder. At this time
it appears that any storms should be at most strong.

The models have come in better agreement with the timing of the
next more significant system, but still differ on the details.
Given the continued model uncertainty, beyond that which is
typical for the extended time frame, have opted to limit pops to
at most chance Thursday night-Saturday.

A northern stream shortwave passes to the north Thursday night,
bringing some isolated to scattered showers - once again mainly
across the north.

The main axis of a northern stream trough approaches Friday,
then crosses the area Friday night. This should bring some
scattered showers along with a risk for some thunderstorms. This
will be the most organized convection of the week, with decent
CAPE and shear expected - there is the potential for strong to
possibly severe storms Friday afternoon/evening ahead of the
surface cold front. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the
timing of the system, so a mainly if not entirely night time
frontal passage cannot be ruled out. If this occurs, then the
severe threat would be greatly reduced, if not eliminated.

Another northern stream trough passes Saturday, with some
scattered showers.

The trough could linger into Saturday evening, so do have some
pops then, otherwise expect deep layered ridging to build in
through Sunday with dry weather.

Temperatures should be above normal Wednesday night through
Friday night, then near normal Saturday and Saturday night. For
now it appears temperatures on Sunday should be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Rain will continue to spread across all terminals
late this afternoon, dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR into the
early evening. Rain will clear out across southern terminals
this evening, and conditions there will improve to VFR
overnight. Patchy fog could briefly lower vis to MVFR/IFR
overnight near the coast, but the chance is low (10%). For
northern terminals, ceilings will remain IFR through the night
with continued rain and rain showers. Winds will remain out of
the W to SW and less than 5 kts. Rain will gradually taper off
at northern terminals on Monday, but ceilings will be slow to
recover. Meanwhile, VFR likely to hang on at southern terminals.
Winds W 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Thursday...VFR, except for brief period of MVFR
possible in any stronger showers in the afternoon and MVFR or
lower possible in patchy fog late at night/early in the morning.
SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday evening and again during the
day on Thursday.

Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...VFR..except MVFR or lower possible in any stronger
shower/thunderstorm. SW winds G15-20KT possible, with LLWS
possible at southern terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will remain below SCA and seas around 4 ft
offshore and 3 ft intracoastal through Monday. A few gusts to 20
kts possible in any rain showers. Moist air over the waters may
result in reduced visibility in areas of dense fog overnight
tonight.

SHORT TERM: A light to moderate pressure gradient over the
waters Monday evening will allow winds up to 15 kt and gusts up
to 20 kt, along with seas up to 4 ft. The pressure gradient
relaxes late Monday night, becoming light by Tuesday. This light
pressure gradient continues through Thursday night, with winds
10 kt or less and seas 3 ft or less. The pressure gradient
tightens again on Friday, with winds up to 15 kt. Continued S-SW
swells could end up building seas to SCA levels by late in the
day on Friday on the coastal ocean waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Maloit