Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
624 FXUS64 KMAF 262328 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 628 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Zonal flow will continue across southeastern New Mexico and West Texas for the next 36 hours. Warm air from the west coupled with a downsloping effect will send temperatures tomorrow to their highest readings this week as highs reach or exceed 100 degrees for most locations. This will be a concern for Memorial Day activities with heat exhaustion and dehydration a threat for everyone in the CWA. The high temperatures lead to a warm night tomorrow night with lows in the 60s and 70s. No precipitation is expected in the short term. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A more active day arrives Tuesday with a sharpening dryline as southeasterly flow develops in response to surface high pressure over OK, ushering in better moisture across the eastern CWA. With the thermal ridge axis setting up over the region, highs look to reach the upper 90s for most areas with 100s in the River Valleys, around 5-10 degrees above normal. A weakness in the upper ridge should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline Tuesday afternoon, with heavy rain, hail, and strong winds all possible threats in anything that develops. This won`t be a "slam dunk" severe weather day as shear currently looks to be lacking everywhere but the far eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, but CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg and PWs of 1.3-1.5" indicate there may be some significant storms on Tuesday. Wednesday will see a repeat of the dryline sharpening in the afternoon with a weakness in the ridge, potentially bringing another round of severe storms with a similar environmental setup. Beyond Wednesday the pattern will remain fairly stagnate as the dryline sets up slightly further east each afternoon and storms will develop with multiple disturbances moving across. Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 90s for most with southerly surface flow, and those along the Rio Grande may be in Heat Advisory territory with afternoon highs 110+. Some relief may be coming this weekend with the breakdown of the ridge, but long range temperatures still looks to be at or above-normal. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions with modest westerly winds will continue this TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 With no meaningful rainfall the past several months, ERCs are currently peaking at 97th+ percentile with critically to extremely dry fuels across the west. Previous mornings have seen poor overnight recovery with dry westerly flow leading to afternoon humidity as low as 3 percent nearly area-wide. Today is no exception, and with elevated 20ft winds in the higher terrain and surrounding foothills of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas causing RFTIs to reach 6-7, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the aforementioned areas through this evening. Similar to previous mornings humidity recovery will be poor, only around 15-20%, across the west and south tonight before one final day of widespread single- digit humidity occurs Monday afternoon. Despite 20ft winds significantly lighter tomorrow, near-critical fire weather conditions will exist on Monday, specifically in the highest terrain and surrounding foothills of West Texas. Beyond Monday, better moisture returns as flow turns southeasterly and fire conditions will decrease somewhat as afternoon humidity remains above critical levels, but fuels will remain extremely dry across the west through the end of the week with no meaningful precipitation in sight. Instead, severe storms may develop each afternoon across the east this week, which will bring a lightning threat and gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 102 70 96 / 0 0 0 50 Carlsbad 61 100 63 100 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 71 106 75 99 / 0 0 10 40 Fort Stockton 67 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 40 Guadalupe Pass 64 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 60 97 61 98 / 0 0 0 20 Marfa 56 96 59 96 / 0 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 63 102 70 98 / 0 0 0 40 Odessa 65 101 71 98 / 0 0 0 30 Wink 62 104 68 102 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...10