Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
343 FXUS63 KMKX 081604 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers are likely today with a small chance of thunder - Another breezy day is expected on Sunday - Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the remainder of the week && .UPDATE... Issued 1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rain and showers are underway across Wisconsin late this morning. Lightning chances remain low across southern Wisconsin, but a rumble or two is not out of the question. Any clouds that get tall enough to produce lightning will likely be routed along the best low level frontogenesis and capitalizing on some lower freezing levels around 10-11 kft. Overall showers will struggle to actualize any very weak instability we have available. Scattered to widespread rain will continue into the afternoon hours before gradually ending from west to east. By this evening dry conditions will return. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today through Sunday: Showers are expected today as a shortwave moved through. Bumped up precip chances based on good agreement among models for measurable precip, with the HREF showing high (80-100%) of members with at least 0.01" of rain over a 6 hour period. Though precipitable water values are expected to rise to 1-1.25 inches today, not expecting very high precip totals due to limited convective potential and difficulty obtaining deep saturation per model soundings. Still think there could be a few rumbles of thunder based on some weak instability in models along with some lightning currently associated with the upstream showers. Lowered high temps a bit from the previous forecast due to higher confidence in cloud and showers for a good chunk of the day. Clouds will decrease tonight behind the departing trough, though expecting to in increase in clouds again on Sunday as weak trough drops through the broad cyclonic flow. Moisture increases a bit Sunday ahead of this trough, but soundings don`t look favorable for showers, so left the forecast dry. High temps tomorrow should recover to within a couple degrees of normals, though breezy northwest winds are expected through the day. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Monday through Friday: Latest model runs continue to suggest multiple shortwaves moving through during the upcoming work week. Kept precip chances on the lower end for now given model differences in timing and strength of the waves. Should see temps gradually warm through the week as the northwest flow pattern gradually becomes more zonal across the region. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rain showers will continue across southern Wisconsin through the morning and into the afternoon hours today. There is a small chance for a rumble of thunder or two through this afternoon. Initially VFR ceilings around 8-10 kft late this morning are expected to gradually fall to MFVR levels around 2 kft. These lower ceilings are expected to be associated with the rain and showers through the afternoon. Late this afternoon and evening cloud cover will decrease from the northwest to the southeast leading to a return of VFR conditions. Mostly Clear skies will remain through Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds will become northerly by this afternoon. Overnight tonight winds will gain a more westerly component becoming northwest to west through Sunday. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected Sunday afternoon. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Winds will be west to southwest through the day today in the north, while become northerly in the south as a front drops through the area. Breezy northwest winds are then expected Sunday between high pressure over the Northern Plains and low pressure just east of James Bay in Canada. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed tomorrow. Breezy northerly winds are likely Monday as the high continues to build in from the west, with lighter winds Monday night as the high moves overhead. Southerly winds are expected to pick up a bit Tuesday on the back side of the high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee