371
FXUS64 KSJT 172323
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Quiet weather will continue through the rest of today and into
tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the Davis
Mountains and Stockton Plateau this evening  but most of this
activity should remain west of our area. Skies this afternoon are
mostly clear across the western half of area with some scattered
clouds streaming across the Big Country, Heartland, and northwest
Hill Country. Temperatures are hottest across the Concho Valley,
where we have readings currently in the upper 90s. Overnight,
expect low level clouds to spread across the area. Lows will drop
down into the lower 70s. Clouds should scatter out in the
afternoon giving way to partly sunny skies. The hottest
temperatures will again be across the Concho Valley. South-
southeast winds will remain gusty overnight and into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Heavy rainfall, possible flooding Wednesday and Thursday...

Main weather concern will be a tropical disturbance in the Gulf
of Mexico, which could become a tropical depression/storm over the
next 48 hours (around 70 percent chance of development on the Two
Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the Hurricane Center). Models,
have the system moving into Gulf Coast Tuesday night...along a
Junction to Brownwood line Wednesday...before moving west across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tropical moisture with 2 inches of precipital water moves into
the region Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be extremely
efficient, and localized flooding possible, particularly south of
I-20. Main problem will how much influence a developing upper
ridge over Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. will have....as
it may keep the heavy rainfall confined father south along the
I-10 corridor. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be
beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash
flooding.

The system does moves west of the region Thursday night, and dry
conditions with clearing skies are expected Friday as the upper
ridge continue to expand in from the east. Temperatures rebound
back well into the 90s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Gusty southeast winds will continue throughout this TAF package,
with gusts generally varying from 20 to 30 kts. MVFR CIGs are
expected to move across the whole area tonight, entering our
southern counties around 7Z to 9Z and then progressing northwest.
Low clouds should start to scatter out by the late morning,
leaving VFR conditions for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  92  71  84 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  75  97  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    75  95  72  83 /   0   0   0  30
Brownwood   74  89  71  81 /   0   0   0  30
Sweetwater  74  95  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       73  94  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       73  89  71  79 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...AP