Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
424 FXUS65 KABQ 061133 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 433 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 427 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across east central New Mexico today, especially for large and high- profile vehicles. - There is high confidence for dry and warmer weather over all of central and northern New Mexico next week, leading to snowmelt across midslope and high terrain areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 103 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Northwest winds aloft are starting to intensify and will continue to trend stronger through the night into the morning hours. Initially, strong winds will be confined to mountain tops, with these winds extending into the Central/Northeast Highlands by mid-morning, and eventually the eastern plains by late morning. While there is a low chance of strong rouge gusts associated with crashing mountain waves just east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, the lack of strong stability on the east slopes suggests this is unlikely. No changes were made to the Wind Advisory, as there is a less than 20% chance of 50mph+ gust outside of the current Wind Advisory area per HREF and NBM guidance. The deeper mixing and compressional heating will warm temperatures up 5-10 degrees in most areas, with the biggest warm-up in the eastern plains. Mountain-wave induced clouds will hug the northern mountains all day, with mostly clear skies prevailing elsewhere. A dry Pacific front will cross the area from northwest to southeast Saturday night into Sunday, dropping temperatures a few ticks and keeping highs within about 5 degrees of average in most areas It will be another mostly sunny day with pleasant sensible weather for early December. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 103 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Dry northwest flow will be the story all next week. 700 and 500 mb temps rise above the the percentile of climatology on Tuesday and will remain there through the weekend thanks to an unusually strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. The jet stream will keep the storm track to the north of New Mexico, leaving the area dry for at least the next 7-10 days. Temperatures will progressively warm each day, with temperatures likely peaking on Thursday, when record highs may get threatened in the southeast plains. A backdoor frontal intrusion will likely cool temps down a tad on Friday, but high temps will remain several degrees above normal even in the wake of this front. All ensemble systems are showing above normal heights over the desert southwest through the winter solstice (Dec 21st), suggesting the dry and seasonably warm weather will persist. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds in and around the northern high terrain will continue to erode over the next few hours. LLWS is currently in place in and around the northern mountains. These gusty winds just off to the deck will begin mixing down to the sfc around 15Z, creating gusty W/NW winds today from the central mountain chain eastward. A dry Pacific front will move across the region this evening through the overnight hours from northwest to southeast, with little sensible weather change other than a shift in wind direction more to the north. LLWS will likely return to the same areas tonight and may expand more into eastern NM as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Gusty northwest winds are developing this morning, will peak in the late morning, then trend weaker through the afternoon. The strongest winds (gusts up to 55 mph) will be confined to the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Central Highlands, while most areas will only experience a light breeze. A dry Pacific front will cross the area tonight, with lighter winds and slightly cooler temps in its wake on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will be entrenched over New Mexico next week, keeping a northwest breeze around over mountain-tops and along the east slopes of the central mountain chain each day. Temperatures will rise a few ticks each day, resulting in slightly lower humidity values each day. There is high confidence that this dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through at least next weekend, with moderate confidence it could persist another several days beyond that. Outside of lower-lying valleys (such as the Rio Grande), fair to good ventilation will prevail today, becoming poor to fair in most areas Sunday through the end of next week thanks to the lack of deep mixing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 24 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 10 43 10 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 46 20 43 20 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 51 18 50 18 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 23 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 54 21 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 24 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 30 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 51 25 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 24 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 63 27 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 11 39 12 / 5 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 24 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 46 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 18 40 18 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 38 10 37 12 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 8 39 8 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 44 16 41 13 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 46 18 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 51 20 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 25 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 22 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 31 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 28 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 26 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 29 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 56 22 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 22 53 20 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 54 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 55 24 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 49 29 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 28 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 26 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 27 46 26 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 47 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 20 47 16 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 41 22 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 51 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 51 19 42 19 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 54 17 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 52 17 47 15 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 20 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 59 27 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 54 22 46 21 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 61 25 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 55 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 26 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 63 30 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 64 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 27 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 34 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 34 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 62 30 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ214-215-223. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16