040
FXUS65 KABQ 031748 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1048 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Snowpacked and icy roads will begin developing over northern
  areas this afternoon, then spread to east central areas tonight.
  Commutes will likely be impacted this evening and Thursday
  morning, including I-40 east of Albuquerque to the Texas border,
  I-25 north of Albuquerque to the Colorado border, and Highway
  550 northwest of Albuquerque over the continental divide.

- Strong northwest crosswinds will impact travel across east
  central New Mexico Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Commutes will likely be impacted in many locations and especially
Thursday morning as a fairly deep upper level trough swings
through the forecast area from the northwest with increasing
coverage of accumulating snow today, then widespread accumulating
snow tonight. The deep upper level trough is already drawing a
moist backdoor cold front through the eastern plains, and this
front is now forecast to produce east canyon wind gusts from 25-40
mph in Santa Fe and Albuquerque from late this morning through
tonight. By sunrise Thursday, snow amounts should vary from a few
to 5 inches below 7500 feet across the northwest and northeast
highlands, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and upper Rio Grande
Valley. The northern mountains can generally expect 3 to 8 inches
of snow, except 6 to 15 inches in the mountains near the Colorado
border including 4-6 inches on I-25 over Raton Pass and Glorieta
Pass. I-40 can expect 2-5 inches through the east central
highlands and Tijeras Canyon. With this forecast package we
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains near the CO border, and issued Winter Weather Advisories
for the far northwest highlands, Jemez Mountains, and
Sandia/Manzano Mountains. We may expand the Winter Weather
Advisories further with future forecast updates. The NBM currently
depicts a 30-55% chance of over 2 inches of snow tonight from
Clayton southward to the Caprock (including Tucumcari), as well as
Santa Fe and the Espanola Valley. There is also a 20-35 percent
chance of over 2 inches of snow tonight in Moriarty.

Temperatures will fall today and Thursday. Highs will bottom out
on Thursday around 4-16 degrees below 1991-2020 averages. The base
of the upper level trough will exit east of NM by midday Thursday,
and accumulating snow will probably linger until mid morning in
the Clovis area where less than an inch is currently forecast to
accumulate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

In the wake of the storm system, gusty northwest flow aloft is
forecast to persist Friday through Tuesday. An upper level trough
crossing the central Rockies will strengthen the flow aloft over
NM producing the gustiest northwest surface winds along the
central mountain chain and from the Clines Corners area to around
Clovis and Portales Friday and especially Saturday. Peak gusts
Saturday will probably reach around 30 to 45 mph. High
temperatures will trend gradually warmer Friday through Monday,
except for a few degrees of cooling over northeast and far east
central areas on Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. High
temperatures will reach near to several degrees above 30-year
averages areawide starting Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

A mixed bag of VFR to IFR conditions prevail across northern and
central NM late this morning as a storm system over northern AZ
spreads areas of light precipitation across northern and central
NM. Deterioration is forecast later this afternoon and overnight
as this system moves across northern NM through Thursday morning.
Rain will likely mix with snow before turning over to all snow
this evening at KABQ/KAEG and KTCC. MVFR and IFR conditions will
be associated with snow this evening and overnight, with low to
moderate probabilities for LIFR at KSAF. Snow on runways is likely,
except at KROW where temperatures will remain too warm for
accumulation. Improvement Thursday will be slow. A backdoor cold
front will create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ later today and
overnight, but gusts are forecast to remain below Airport Weather
Warning threshold at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

There will be wetting precip in the form of rain and accumulating
snow in many north central, central, and eastern locations today
and tonight, then minimum humidities are forecast to stay above
15 percent for the next seven days. Strong winds look to develop
over the mountains and east central areas on Saturday, but
minimum humidities should be in the 25-45 percent range by then.
Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are forecast each day, with
the most widespread poor ventilation Thursday, then Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  25  37  20 /  70  30   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  20  33  11 /  80  70  20   0
Cuba............................  40  20  33  13 /  50  80  10   0
Gallup..........................  40  18  39  11 /  40  30   0   0
El Morro........................  40  21  37  16 /  40  50   0   0
Grants..........................  45  19  40  12 /  30  50   5   0
Quemado.........................  45  23  38  15 /  50  50   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  26  41  23 /  10  40   0   0
Datil...........................  45  22  39  19 /  20  40   0   0
Reserve.........................  51  21  47  16 /  30  40   0   0
Glenwood........................  56  24  51  20 /  20  40   0   0
Chama...........................  32  17  29   8 /  90  80  30   0
Los Alamos......................  39  22  34  17 /  50  90  20   0
Pecos...........................  40  18  35  18 /  50  90  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  37  19  30  13 /  80  90  10   0
Red River.......................  27  11  24   9 /  80  90  10   0
Angel Fire......................  32   9  28   3 /  70 100  10   0
Taos............................  39  20  33  10 /  60  90  20   0
Mora............................  36  13  36  14 /  60 100  10   0
Espanola........................  47  25  39  16 /  50  80  20   0
Santa Fe........................  41  23  34  20 /  40  80  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  24  36  16 /  40  80  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  48  28  38  25 /  40  80  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  30  41  21 /  40  70  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  30  43  19 /  40  70  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  29  42  21 /  40  70  10   0
Belen...........................  53  30  44  18 /  40  70  10   0
Bernalillo......................  50  28  42  22 /  40  70  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  53  29  43  16 /  40  70  10   0
Corrales........................  51  28  42  20 /  40  70  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  29  43  18 /  40  70  10   0
Placitas........................  46  26  37  22 /  40  80  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  29  42  21 /  40  70  10   0
Socorro.........................  57  31  48  23 /  20  40   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  21  34  19 /  50  80  10   0
Tijeras.........................  44  24  35  21 /  50  80  10   0
Edgewood........................  44  21  35  17 /  50  90  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  21  37  14 /  50  80  10   0
Clines Corners..................  38  17  32  17 /  50  90  10   0
Mountainair.....................  47  23  37  19 /  50  80  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  23  39  19 /  40  80  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  30  45  24 /  20  70  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  24  40  25 /  10  70  20   0
Capulin.........................  31  16  34  14 /  60  80   5   0
Raton...........................  35  18  35  12 /  70  90   5   0
Springer........................  39  19  39  12 /  50  90   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  16  35  14 /  40  90  10   0
Clayton.........................  38  21  38  20 /  20  80  10   0
Roy.............................  40  20  34  16 /  30  90  10   0
Conchas.........................  48  24  40  17 /  20  90  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  46  24  38  24 /  20  90  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  23  41  20 /  10  80  40   0
Clovis..........................  50  26  40  25 /   0  70  50   0
Portales........................  52  26  41  26 /   0  60  40   0
Fort Sumner.....................  51  27  42  24 /   5  80  20   0
Roswell.........................  57  31  44  23 /   0  40  10   0
Picacho.........................  52  27  42  24 /   5  50  10   0
Elk.............................  57  24  43  22 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ203-
210>212-214-216-228-229.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ213-215-227.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Thursday for NMZ221-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11