307
FXUS65 KABQ 291916
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1216 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Below normal temperatures eastern NM today thru Sunday behind a
  cold front bringing gusty northeasterly then easterly winds.
  Strong east canyon winds gusting 25 to 35 mph into eastern ABQ
  tonight into Sunday morning.

- Slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the northern
  and the west-central high terrain Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

- Another round of valley rain and mountain snow Wednesday and
  Thursday, with low forecast confidence for duration and
  intensity of winter related impacts over northern and central
  NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Colder air is pushing into NM as a cold front backs south and west
thru eastern NM today. A 5-6mb MSLP pressure gradient b/w Denver and
Raton associated with the frontal boundary continues to bring gusty
northerly winds to northeastern NM. Clayton has regularly observed
peak gusts of 35-45mph all morning and this will steadily taper off
thru the afternoon today. Strong CAA will drop today`s high
temperatures 10F to 17F across northeastern NM. The frontal boundary
is expected to slow its progression this afternoon before speeding
back up again to reach Roswell late this afternoon and evening, and
thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande
Valley. A potent east canyon wind will develop thru the Tijeras
Canyon into eastern Albuquerque as well as into Santa Fe tonight,
with peak gusts of 25-35mph immediately downwind of canyons. CAA
behind the front has a chance to drop tonight`s low temperatures at
the ABQ Sunport to its first freeze of the season (Disclaimer: Much
of the ABQ metro area aside from the Sunport has seen its first
freeze already). Mixing from winds may end up keeping temperatures
at or just above freezing however.

Sunday will see cold air hold on to much of the eastern half of the
state with modest modifications. This will knock high temperatures
to 5F to 20F below normal ranging from the 30s along the TX border
to 40s along the highlands of the central mountain chain and
upper Rio Grande Valley and low 50s within the middle Rio Grande
Valley. Thereafter, a shortwave trough currently over the PacNW will
advance south and east across the Intermountain West and over
northern NM and CO Sunday night thru Monday morning. Snow showers
associated with this system and its attendant surface Pacific front
will favor the northern mountains. Forecast snow accumulations are
little changed with this forecast package ranging from 2 to 6 inches
at elevations of 8,500` or above. Locally higher amounts will
focus atop the mountain peaks of the Tusas near Chama and the
northern Sangre de Cristo`s from east of Taos to Red River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Snow tapers off over the northern mountains thru the day Monday as
cooler temperatures fill into the western half of the state where
highs top out in the 40s. Temperatures moderate along and east of
the Rio Grande Valley where the prior backdoor cold front will be
washed out. The exception will be far northeastern NM where high
temperatures will remain in the 30s. Temperatures quickly warmup
along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday where
westerlies will undergo downslope compressional warming thanks to a
lee-side surface low east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts.

Thereafter, forecast confidence continues to dwindle as numerical
model guidance continues to split on whether or not the next storm
system from the PacNW will progress quickly as an open trough over
the area or be cutoff and retrograde back out over the EPAC off the
Baja Peninsula. Model cluster analysis reveals a near even split b/w
GFS suite favoring the more progressive solution and the ECS and
GEPS suite favoring the cutoff low solution. Did spread out PoPs a
bit thru the day Friday as precipitation chances have a chance to
persist over southwestern NM in the ECS/GEPS scenario from Wednesday
night thru Friday. As the NBM was featuring near 0% PoPs Friday,
this should better reflect the lower forecast uncertainty for the
end of week timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Gusty northerly to
northeasterly winds will accompany cooler temperatures filling into
eastern NM today thru tonight. East canyon winds will also develop
thru the gaps of the central mountain chain tonight lasting into
Sunday morning. A modest winter storm system brings snow to the
northern mountains Sunday night. Thereafter, temperatures warm back
up over eastern NM Tuesday alongside gusty westerly to northwesterly
winds allowing for elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Strong northeasterly winds are filling in behind a cold front thru
northeastern and east-central NM this hour. These winds will advance
to KROW later this afternoon. The front then advances westward thru
the gaps of the central mountain this evening bringing strong
east canyon winds to KSAF and KABQ. The earlier arrival time at
KTCC of the front lends some weight that these east canyon winds
could reach Airport Weather Warning criteria of 35kts at KABQ.
However, confidence is a bit too low still to include in the TAF
just yet. Otherwise, another round of MVFR ceilings are likely to
develop along and east of the central mountain chain tonight into
Sunday morning. KLVS at this time has the best chance to see MVFR
ceilings again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  53  30  44 /   0   5  40   0
Dulce...........................  17  48  22  41 /   5  20  70  20
Cuba............................  22  45  26  39 /   0   0  40  20
Gallup..........................  22  53  21  43 /   0   0  40  10
El Morro........................  26  53  28  43 /   0   0  30  20
Grants..........................  20  56  26  46 /   0   0  20  20
Quemado.........................  26  57  29  43 /   0   0   5  20
Magdalena.......................  28  51  32  48 /   0   0   5  10
Datil...........................  27  53  29  44 /   0   0   5  10
Reserve.........................  24  59  26  53 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  25  64  29  60 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  18  42  21  36 /   0  20  70  30
Los Alamos......................  25  41  29  41 /   0   0  40  20
Pecos...........................  18  42  25  43 /   0   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  23  40  25  38 /   0   0  60  40
Red River.......................  18  34  19  30 /   0   0  60  40
Angel Fire......................  10  38  15  36 /   0   0  40  30
Taos............................  18  43  24  41 /   0   0  50  30
Mora............................  15  44  23  43 /   0   0  20  20
Espanola........................  23  47  29  48 /   0   0  30  20
Santa Fe........................  27  43  29  43 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  25  44  28  45 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  32  49  36  48 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  51  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  53  33  53 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  31  49  34  50 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  27  53  30  53 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  28  51  34  50 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  27  53  30  53 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  29  51  34  51 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  30  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  30  47  34  46 /   0   0   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  28  50  34  50 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  30  55  33  58 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  45  30  43 /   0   0   5  10
Tijeras.........................  26  46  32  44 /   0   0   5  10
Edgewood........................  22  48  29  45 /   0   0   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  50  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  18  41  27  43 /   0   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  22  47  31  46 /   0   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  22  48  29  47 /   0   0   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  29  50  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  25  47  34  48 /   0   0   5   5
Capulin.........................  12  31  15  32 /   0   0   5  20
Raton...........................  13  37  16  39 /   0   0  20  20
Springer........................  16  40  17  43 /   0   0   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  17  36  23  44 /   0   0   5  10
Clayton.........................  16  34  21  39 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  16  35  19  43 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  20  44  23  48 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  21  40  22  49 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  18  42  23  48 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  20  39  21  50 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  21  41  20  53 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  21  43  20  53 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  30  45  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  26  44  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  22  50  27  59 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24