424
FXUS65 KABQ 031919
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1219 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

- A storm system will bring accumulating snow to much of northern
  and central NM through early Thursday morning, making for
  difficult evening and morning commutes. Snow amounts will be
  greatest in the northern mountains and near the Colorado border.

- Cold conditions will prevail Thursday in the wake of the
  departing storm system, with high temperatures forecast roughly
  10-15 degrees below average.

- Strong northwest crosswinds will impact travel across east
  central New Mexico Saturday.

- Drier and warmer conditions are forecast early to mid next week,
  with temperatures rising above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

The upper low is moving east across north central AZ per the
latest water vapor satellite imagery and is near 553dam at 500mb
per some 18Z upper air data across the region. At the same time, a
backdoor cold front is plodding west into the central mountain
chain and will result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio
Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon through
the overnight hours. Precipitation associated with the approaching
upper low is already bringing snow-covered roadways and difficult
driving conditions to the higher elevations of northern NM, but
further deterioration is expected as precipitation increases in
coverage and intensity then shifts east across NM through the
evening hours. Our forecast snow amounts didn`t change much from
the previous forecast cycle and justify the winter highlights
that are either already in effect or will go into effect later
today. Light snow accumulations of around 0.5" are possible in the
ABQ Metro, with higher amounts of 1-2" possible east of Tramway.
Morning commutes will be impacted by snow-covered and icy roadways
Thursday, including but not limited to the Santa Fe Metro, Los
Alamos, Taos and Albuquerque`s East Mountain Communities. Cold
conditions will prevail Thursday behind the departing upper low,
with high temperatures forecast to be generally 10-15 degrees
below average. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday
night, which will be one of the coldest nights so far this season
for many locales with low temperatures generally 0-10 degrees
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Dry northwest flow aloft continues Friday with some warming,
although with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. The
jetstream will dive southeast from the Pacific NW toward the
southern Rockies and northern NM Friday night into Saturday,
bringing strong northwest winds to the peaks of the northern
mountains and eventually down to the highlands of eastern NM
Saturday morning. 700mb winds speeds are forecast to reach up to
between 40-50kts early Saturday morning from near Clines Corners
north along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to the CO
border. Wind highlights may be required for this area late Friday
night through mid day Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft will
then persist through the middle of next week, but with a warming
trend as pressure heights increase in response to an expanding
ridge of high pressure across SoCal and the Desert SW.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

A mixed bag of VFR to IFR conditions prevail across northern and
central NM late this morning as a storm system over northern AZ
spreads areas of light precipitation across northern and central
NM. Deterioration is forecast later this afternoon and overnight
as this system moves across northern NM through Thursday morning.
Rain will likely mix with snow before turning over to all snow
this evening at KABQ/KAEG and KTCC. MVFR and IFR conditions will
be associated with snow this evening and overnight, with low to
moderate probabilities for LIFR at KSAF. Snow on runways is likely,
except at KROW where temperatures will remain too warm for
accumulation. Improvement Thursday will be slow. A backdoor cold
front will create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ later today and
overnight, but gusts are forecast to remain below Airport Weather
Warning threshold at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. An upper low and backdoor cold front combo
will impact northern and central NM today through early Thursday
with increasing humidity and good chances for wetting
precipitation. Mostly poor vent rates with continued higher
humidity and colder conditions will prevail Thursday in the wake
of the departing upper low. Strengthening northwest flow aloft
will bring windy to very windy conditions to the higher terrain of
northern NM Friday night into Saturday, including the eastern
highlands. A notable warming and drying trend is forecast from
early through the middle of next week, with temperatures trending
above average. Vent rates will be mostly poor from early to mid
next week as pressure heights increase and temperature inversions
are the rule in the lower atmosphere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  37  20  39 /  30   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  33  11  37 /  70  20   0   0
Cuba............................  20  33  13  37 /  80  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  18  39  11  45 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  37  16  42 /  50   0   0   0
Grants..........................  19  40  12  45 /  50   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  38  15  42 /  50   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  26  41  23  46 /  40   0   0   0
Datil...........................  22  39  19  43 /  40   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  47  16  53 /  40   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  24  51  20  57 /  40   0   0   0
Chama...........................  17  29   8  35 /  80  30   0   0
Los Alamos......................  22  34  17  37 /  90  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  18  35  18  42 /  90  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  19  30  13  35 /  90  10   0   0
Red River.......................  11  24   9  29 /  90  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................   9  28   3  35 / 100  10   0   0
Taos............................  20  33  10  37 /  90  20   0   0
Mora............................  13  36  14  43 / 100  10   0   0
Espanola........................  25  39  16  43 /  80  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  23  34  20  37 /  80  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  36  16  39 /  80  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  38  25  42 /  80  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  41  21  44 /  70  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  43  19  46 /  70  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  29  42  21  45 /  70  10   0   0
Belen...........................  30  44  18  46 /  70  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  28  42  22  45 /  70  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  29  43  16  45 /  70  10   0   0
Corrales........................  28  42  20  46 /  70  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  29  43  18  45 /  70  10   0   0
Placitas........................  26  37  22  41 /  80  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  42  21  45 /  70  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  48  23  52 /  40   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  21  34  19  37 /  80  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  35  21  38 /  80  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  21  35  17  39 /  90  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  21  37  14  40 /  80  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  17  32  17  35 /  90  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  23  37  19  41 /  80  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  39  19  42 /  80  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  45  24  48 /  70  20   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  24  40  25  44 /  70  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  16  34  14  42 /  80   5   0   0
Raton...........................  18  35  12  45 /  90   5   0   0
Springer........................  19  39  12  46 /  90   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  16  35  14  43 /  90  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  21  38  20  48 /  80  10   0   0
Roy.............................  20  34  16  45 /  90  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  24  40  17  48 /  90  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  24  38  24  45 /  90  20   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  23  41  20  50 /  80  40   0   0
Clovis..........................  26  40  25  53 /  70  50   0   0
Portales........................  26  41  26  54 /  60  40   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  27  42  24  52 /  80  20   0   0
Roswell.........................  31  44  23  58 /  40  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  27  42  24  55 /  50  10   0   0
Elk.............................  24  43  22  57 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ203-
210>212-214-216-228-229.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ213-215-227.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Thursday for NMZ221-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11