Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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497 FXUS65 KABQ 040004 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 504 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 446 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Accumulating snow will impact northern and central New Mexico through early Thursday morning, making for difficult travel and low visibility. Snow amounts will be heaviest in the northern mountains and near the Colorado border. - Strong northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across east central New Mexico Saturday, especially for large and high- profile vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 The upper low is moving east across north central AZ per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is near 553dam at 500mb per some 18Z upper air data across the region. At the same time, a backdoor cold front is plodding west into the central mountain chain and will result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon through the overnight hours. Precipitation associated with the approaching upper low is already bringing snow-covered roadways and difficult driving conditions to the higher elevations of northern NM, but further deterioration is expected as precipitation increases in coverage and intensity then shifts east across NM through the evening hours. Our forecast snow amounts didn`t change much from the previous forecast cycle and justify the winter highlights that are either already in effect or will go into effect later today. Light snow accumulations of around 0.5" are possible in the ABQ Metro, with higher amounts of 1-2" possible east of Tramway. Morning commutes will be impacted by snow-covered and icy roadways Thursday, including but not limited to the Santa Fe Metro, Los Alamos, Taos and Albuquerque`s East Mountain Communities. Cold conditions will prevail Thursday behind the departing upper low, with high temperatures forecast to be generally 10-15 degrees below average. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday night, which will be one of the coldest nights so far this season for many locales with low temperatures generally 0-10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft continues Friday with some warming, although with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. The jetstream will dive southeast from the Pacific NW toward the southern Rockies and northern NM Friday night into Saturday, bringing strong northwest winds to the peaks of the northern mountains and eventually down to the highlands of eastern NM Saturday morning. 700mb winds speeds are forecast to reach up to between 40-50kts early Saturday morning from near Clines Corners north along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to the CO border. Wind highlights may be required for this area late Friday night through mid day Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft will then persist through the middle of next week, but with a warming trend as pressure heights increase in response to an expanding ridge of high pressure across SoCal and the Desert SW. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Widespread aviation impacts will continue thru Thursday morning as a winter storm moves east across northern and central NM. A Center Weather Advisory is already in effect for IFR across northern NM with a Convective SIGMET across west-central NM. Mt obscurations, icing, and turbulence have also been reported in the airspace the past couple hours. Snow will focus along the central mt chain and adjacent high plains of eastern NM tonight with IFR expected thru at least 14Z. Clearing will take place slowly from west to east Thursday morning followed by increasing westerly winds Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. An upper low and backdoor cold front combo will impact northern and central NM today through early Thursday with increasing humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. Mostly poor vent rates with continued higher humidity and colder conditions will prevail Thursday in the wake of the departing upper low. Strengthening northwest flow aloft will bring windy to very windy conditions to the higher terrain of northern NM Friday night into Saturday, including the eastern highlands. A notable warming and drying trend is forecast from early through the middle of next week, with temperatures trending above average. Vent rates will be mostly poor from early to mid next week as pressure heights increase and temperature inversions are the rule in the lower atmosphere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 25 37 20 39 / 30 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 20 33 11 37 / 70 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 20 33 13 37 / 80 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 18 39 11 45 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 21 37 16 42 / 50 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 19 40 12 45 / 50 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 23 38 15 42 / 50 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 26 41 23 46 / 40 0 0 0 Datil........................... 22 39 19 43 / 40 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 21 47 16 53 / 40 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 24 51 20 57 / 40 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 29 8 35 / 80 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 34 17 37 / 90 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 18 35 18 42 / 90 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 19 30 13 35 / 90 10 0 0 Red River....................... 11 24 9 29 / 90 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 9 28 3 35 / 100 10 0 0 Taos............................ 20 33 10 37 / 90 20 0 0 Mora............................ 13 36 14 43 / 100 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 39 16 43 / 80 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 23 34 20 37 / 80 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 36 16 39 / 80 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 28 38 25 42 / 80 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 30 41 21 44 / 70 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 43 19 46 / 70 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 42 21 45 / 70 10 0 0 Belen........................... 30 44 18 46 / 70 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 42 22 45 / 70 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 29 43 16 45 / 70 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 42 20 46 / 70 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 43 18 45 / 70 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 26 37 22 41 / 80 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 42 21 45 / 70 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 31 48 23 52 / 40 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 21 34 19 37 / 80 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 24 35 21 38 / 80 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 21 35 17 39 / 90 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 37 14 40 / 80 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 17 32 17 35 / 90 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 23 37 19 41 / 80 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 39 19 42 / 80 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 30 45 24 48 / 70 20 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 24 40 25 44 / 70 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 16 34 14 42 / 80 5 0 0 Raton........................... 18 35 12 45 / 90 5 0 0 Springer........................ 19 39 12 46 / 90 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 16 35 14 43 / 90 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 21 38 20 48 / 80 10 0 0 Roy............................. 20 34 16 45 / 90 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 24 40 17 48 / 90 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 24 38 24 45 / 90 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 23 41 20 50 / 80 40 0 0 Clovis.......................... 26 40 25 53 / 70 50 0 0 Portales........................ 26 41 26 54 / 60 40 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 42 24 52 / 80 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 31 44 23 58 / 40 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 27 42 24 55 / 50 10 0 0 Elk............................. 24 43 22 57 / 40 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ203- 210>212-214-216-221-223-228-229. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ213-215-227. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42