560
FXUS65 KABQ 040548 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1048 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1044 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Accumulating snow will impact northern and central New Mexico
  through early Thursday morning, making for difficult travel and
  low visibility. Snow amounts will be heaviest in the northern
  mountains, Sandia/Manzanos, and near the Colorado border.

- Strong northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across
  east central New Mexico Saturday, especially for large and high-
  profile vehicles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

A winter storm moving east across northern and central NM this
evening is showing signs of trending toward the higher end of
the probabilistic guidance envelope. The Sandia/Manzano Mts were
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning and may end up the epicenter
of this system. The Moriarty area was added to the Winter Weather
Advisory and a larger Special Weather Statement was issued for
eastern NM. A 130kt H3 jet slicing northeast across central NM is
interacting with a well-defined baroclinic zone and backdoor cold
front. Two lesser defined mid-level waves over western NM will
move east in this pattern and continue to provide additional lift
thru late tonight within central NM. The thermodynamic profile is
just shy of optimal dendritic snow growth as well. Nonetheless,
spotters have reported snowfall rates of 1"/hr in the Sandia/
Manzano Mts with similar rates likely in the Jemez and parts of
the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The latest hi-res model guidance and
higher NBM snow probabilities support additional snow thru the
predawn hours before tapering off around sunrise. Additional
upgrades are possible as new information becomes available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

The upper low is moving east across north central AZ per the
latest water vapor satellite imagery and is near 553dam at 500mb
per some 18Z upper air data across the region. At the same time, a
backdoor cold front is plodding west into the central mountain
chain and will result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio
Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon through
the overnight hours. Precipitation associated with the approaching
upper low is already bringing snow-covered roadways and difficult
driving conditions to the higher elevations of northern NM, but
further deterioration is expected as precipitation increases in
coverage and intensity then shifts east across NM through the
evening hours. Our forecast snow amounts didn`t change much from
the previous forecast cycle and justify the winter highlights
that are either already in effect or will go into effect later
today. Light snow accumulations of around 0.5" are possible in the
ABQ Metro, with higher amounts of 1-2" possible east of Tramway.
Morning commutes will be impacted by snow-covered and icy roadways
Thursday, including but not limited to the Santa Fe Metro, Los
Alamos, Taos and Albuquerque`s East Mountain Communities. Cold
conditions will prevail Thursday behind the departing upper low,
with high temperatures forecast to be generally 10-15 degrees
below average. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday
night, which will be one of the coldest nights so far this season
for many locales with low temperatures generally 0-10 degrees
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Dry northwest flow aloft continues Friday with some warming,
although with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. The
jetstream will dive southeast from the Pacific NW toward the
southern Rockies and northern NM Friday night into Saturday,
bringing strong northwest winds to the peaks of the northern
mountains and eventually down to the highlands of eastern NM
Saturday morning. 700mb winds speeds are forecast to reach up to
between 40-50kts early Saturday morning from near Clines Corners
north along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to the CO
border. Wind highlights may be required for this area late Friday
night through mid day Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft will
then persist through the middle of next week, but with a warming
trend as pressure heights increase in response to an expanding
ridge of high pressure across SoCal and the Desert SW.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widespread aviation impacts continue late this evening as a
winter storm moves east across the airspace. Areas of snow with
IFR cigs/vsbys will continue around the central and northern high
terrain with mt obscurations, icing, and turbulence expected.
Large areas of IFR will also develop over eastern NM thru sunrise
Thursday. Snow will then taper off over the entire area with a few
flurries lingering along the central mt chain. Slow clearing will
take place from west to east Thursday morning. A few area of far
eastern NM may not clear out until late afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. An upper low and backdoor cold front combo
will impact northern and central NM today through early Thursday
with increasing humidity and good chances for wetting
precipitation. Mostly poor vent rates with continued higher
humidity and colder conditions will prevail Thursday in the wake
of the departing upper low. Strengthening northwest flow aloft
will bring windy to very windy conditions to the higher terrain of
northern NM Friday night into Saturday, including the eastern
highlands. A notable warming and drying trend is forecast from
early through the middle of next week, with temperatures trending
above average. Vent rates will be mostly poor from early to mid
next week as pressure heights increase and temperature inversions
are the rule in the lower atmosphere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  37  19  39 /  30   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  36  10  39 /  70  10   0   0
Cuba............................  20  36  13  38 /  80   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  18  40  13  45 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  39  16  43 /  50   0   0   0
Grants..........................  19  44  13  47 /  50   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  39  14  43 /  50   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  26  43  22  47 /  40   0   0   0
Datil...........................  22  41  18  44 /  40   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  51  16  54 /  40   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  24  55  20  57 /  40   0   0   0
Chama...........................  17  31   8  35 /  80  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  22  35  18  38 /  90   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  18  36  18  42 /  90   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  19  32  13  36 /  90  10   0   0
Red River.......................  11  32   9  35 /  90  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  11  30   3  36 / 100  10   0   0
Taos............................  20  34   9  36 /  90  10   0   0
Mora............................  13  38  14  43 / 100   5   0   0
Espanola........................  25  41  16  44 /  80   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  23  36  21  39 /  80   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  38  17  39 /  80   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  41  25  43 /  80   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  44  21  45 /  70   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  47  20  47 /  70   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  29  44  22  46 /  70   0   0   0
Belen...........................  30  46  17  47 /  70   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  28  44  21  46 /  70   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  29  45  17  46 /  70   0   0   0
Corrales........................  28  45  20  47 /  70   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  29  46  18  47 /  70   0   0   0
Placitas........................  26  39  23  41 /  80   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  44  22  46 /  70   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  51  23  53 /  40   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  21  35  18  37 /  80   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  38  18  40 /  80   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  21  38  15  40 /  90   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  21  38  14  40 /  80   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  17  33  17  36 /  90   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  23  39  18  42 /  80   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  23  41  20  43 /  80   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  47  25  49 /  70   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  24  42  26  45 /  70   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  16  34  13  42 /  80   0   0   0
Raton...........................  18  36  13  46 /  90   0   0   0
Springer........................  19  39  11  45 /  90   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  16  36  14  43 /  90   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  21  37  20  46 /  80   0   0   0
Roy.............................  20  34  15  44 /  90   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  24  42  17  49 /  90   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  24  40  25  47 /  90   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  23  44  20  51 /  80  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  26  43  26  54 /  70  20   0   0
Portales........................  26  44  27  55 /  60  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  27  44  25  53 /  80  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  31  47  23  60 /  40   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  27  44  25  56 /  50   0   0   0
Elk.............................  24  47  22  56 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ203-
210>212-214-216-218-222-223-228-229.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ213-215-221-
227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42