819
FXUS65 KABQ 132051
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
151 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Temperatures will warm to near record highs across eastern New
  Mexico again Friday afternoon, then again over some
  southeastern locations on Saturday.

- Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected mainly over
  western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night. Snow
  accumulation now looks to favor locations above 8500 feet with
  a few inches possible on higher peaks.

- Rain and mountain snow showers may become more widespread
  Tuesday through Wednesday as another storm system crosses the
  state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Periods of thin, high cirrus will continue to cross today through
Saturday night as an upper level low pressure system forms off
the CA coast, then gradually moves inland. A ridge of high
pressure lingering over the forecast area will cause near record
high temperatures to return to some places east of the central
mountain chain again on Friday afternoon, and also to the Four
Corners area. On Saturday, high temperatures will trend downward a
few degrees over western areas due to increasing high clouds with
the approaching system, and also over northeast areas behind a
weak backdoor cold front. However, near record warmth is forecast
to return to the southeast plains on Saturday afternoon. West and
southwest surface winds will gust up to 35 mph over east central
areas on Friday afternoon due to a surface trough in the lee of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and ample atmospheric mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

The upper low will weaken as it moves northeastward over the Great
Basin Saturday night and Sunday, while a shortwave trough ejects
east northeastward across the Four Corners and the central
Rockies. This trough will spread rain and high terrain snow
showers across mainly western and north central areas Sunday and
Sunday night. Temperatures at 700 mb will remain above freezing
until Sunday night, when they will gradually fall between -2 to
-4 C as a gusty Pacific cold front crosses NM. As a result, only
 an inch or two of snow accumulation are forecast above 8500 feet.
 Otherwise, rain amounts across western and north central NM
 should generally remain near and below a quarter inch with
 locally higher amounts near the CO border. Southwest winds will
 become breezy to windy Sunday and Sunday night, with the
 strongest gusts near 50 mph on mountain peaks during the
 overnight hours.

High temperatures will trend cooler during the first half of the
coming week as a long wave trough moves inland over the western US
with additional shortwave troughs rotating through it. Models are
in fairly good agreement that a second shortwave trough will bring
rain and mountain snow showers to the forecast area Tuesday
through at least Wednesday night. At this time models generally
depict this second shortwave trough being deeper and crossing more
directly over the forecast area with longer dwell time than the
Sunday/Sunday night trough, which would result in more and more
widespread precipitation if it pans out. It will be a west and
southwest upslope flow event, so most of the precip should favor
the central mountain chain westward. With the long wave trough
over the western US, high temperatures will trend downward Sunday
through Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon highs will bottom out
around 10 degrees below 30-year averages over western areas, near
average along the central valley, and as much as 4 degrees above
the averages on the far eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours with periods of
thin, high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

With the ridge of high pressure lingering overhead, broad areas
of critically low minimum humidity are forecast to return to many
locations east of the central mountain chain on Friday. Minimum
humidities will climb above 15 percent over western areas Friday,
then over the east as well this weekend, and should remain above
15 percent areawide through the first half of the coming week
with the active storm track over the western US. Southwest winds
will become gusty in many locations on Sunday with the strongest
gusts potentially reaching 40 mph across the northeast highlands
and northeast plains. After gusts up to 50 mph over mountain peaks
along the central mountain chain Sunday night, west wind gusts up
to 40 mph look to return along the central mountain chain, and
eastward down the I-40 corridor on Monday. Winds may be weaker
over northeast areas Monday if a backdoor cold front arrives as
a few models depict. Southwest winds may become breezy again
Tuesday and Wednesday as the second shortwave trough moves in.
Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are expected to continue
Friday through the middle of next week, except for ventilation
improvement in many locations with the stronger winds on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  68  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  67  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  34  66  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  31  67  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  65  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  70  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  36  68  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  38  67  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  34  73  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  39  78  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  61  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  41  64  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  37  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  32  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  22  62  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  27  67  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  36  68  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  32  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  65  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  36  68  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  70  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  38  73  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  34  73  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  39  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  34  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  39  73  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  36  73  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  44  68  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  40  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  42  76  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  42  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  70  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  37  66  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  39  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  70  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  68  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  70  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  32  73  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  31  74  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  37  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  44  77  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  37  73  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  36  80  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  37  81  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  44  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  42  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  39  81  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  42  82  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  45  81  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  78  43  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44