Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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998 FXUS65 KABQ 031145 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 445 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 441 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Remaining dry with highs generally around 5 to 15 degrees above average this week. - Breezy conditions across the central highlands Tuesday and eastern highlands and east central plains Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 It will be yet another pleasant Fall day around central and northern New Mexico today. A weak, dry backdoor front will stall out along the east slopes of the central mountain chain late morning, with winds turning around to the south by the afternoon. High temps will be similar to Sunday`s highs in most areas outside of the northeast plains where it will be 10-20 degrees cooler in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The sensible weather will change little Tuesday, except across the northeast and east-central plains where temps will warm back above average thanks to westerly winds taking over. A light breeze is likely in most areas, with gusts up to 30mph in the eastern plains. High temps will threaten record highs in locations such as Portales and Clovis where temps will be more typical of late September than early November. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1247 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 Dry weather with above average temperatures will continue Wednesday through the weekend. Quasi-zonal flow will remain over the desert southwest as a trough passes through the Intermountain West. This will increase the sfc pressure gradient slightly on Thursday, as a weak Pacific front crosses the state. Winds will generally be a nuisance at most in the typically windy areas where gusts could be up to 40mph. Modest cold air advection Thursday night into Friday will drop temps just a tad, with above average temps continuing areawide. Long-term guidance is in good agreement that a ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late week into the weekend, keeping the dry and warm weather around. Northwest flow aloft will leave the eastern plains vulnerable to a backdoor frontal passage over the weekend, once again dropping temps a few to several degrees in the plains. There is moderate to high confidence that the quiet weather will persist early to mid-week, with the potential for a pattern change late week as the ridge breaks down. Both the EPS and GEFS are showing troughing developing over the desert southwest late next week. Furthermore, about half of GEFS ensembles are showing a shift to the negative phase of the PNA around Nov. 15th, indicating the potential for a more active storm track in the Intermountain West. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A backdoor front just recently entered from the northeast, but its progress will be stalled around 18Z as it approaches the central mountain chain. Winds will eventually turn back around to the south in eastern NM later in the afternoon. Elsewhere, light winds will prevail through the TAF period. High clouds will increase in coverage from the west through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 Ventilation improves across much of western and central New Mexico today as ridging begins to break down. A backdoor frontal passage in eastern NM will turn winds around to the north briefly this morning, with southerly flow developing again by the afternoon. Above average temps, light breezes, and fair to good ventilation prevail across most of the area through the rest of the workweek. Elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions may develop in the central highlands and eastern plains Thursday afternoon, but ERCs continue to suggest fuels are not susceptible for rapid fire spread. Ridging is forecast to redevelop over the Intermountain West Friday into the weekend, keeping dry weather around. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 73 38 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 28 68 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 36 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 72 29 68 24 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 38 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 31 72 26 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 37 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 74 45 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 73 39 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 35 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 36 80 34 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 32 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 68 43 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 68 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 62 36 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 24 63 16 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 71 33 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 68 40 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 76 38 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 44 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 40 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 49 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 44 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 78 38 78 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 76 45 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 78 32 77 29 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 43 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 77 31 77 28 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 77 43 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 77 32 77 29 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 74 46 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 76 45 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 79 45 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 44 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 73 39 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 31 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 40 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 73 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 73 42 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 75 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 62 41 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 66 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 36 76 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 66 41 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 63 47 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 41 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 69 41 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 70 43 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 44 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 40 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 79 42 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 78 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 45 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16