Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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534 FXUS65 KABQ 102327 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 427 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 408 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 - West wind gusts up to 40 mph will impact areas from Clines Corners to Vaughn Tuesday. Temperatures will also warm to within a few degrees of record highs across eastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. - Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will return Friday over much of the region as a strong storm system approaches from the west. - Confidence is increasing for cooler and unsettled weather this weekend. Valley rain and mountain snowfall may impact parts of the region between Friday night and Sunday. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the storm track, timing, snow levels, precipitation coverage and intensity. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 A weak shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Rockies tonight will increase west winds along the central mt chain and nearby high plains of eastern NM thru Tuesday. Model trends have decreased wind gusts Tuesday but the area from near Clines Corners to Vaughn and Clovis may still see a few gusts near 40 mph. Cirrus will also spread south over the region late tonight and Tuesday. A northeast wind shift has now trended a little stronger near Clayton which may keep max temps a tad cooler than the rest of the area for Tuesday. Otherwise, a few areas over eastern NM may be close to record highs with the downslope flow regime. Lighter winds will return to all areas Tuesday night with weak shortwave ridging. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 Flow aloft will flatten Wednesday and Wednesday night then begin to back more out of the west/southwest Thursday. The main impact will be increasing high clouds over the region with more above normal temps. Forecast confidence beginning Friday deteriorates considerably with very little improvement to model agreement. The wave pattern over the Pacific is very complex and it will likely take a couple more days for models to come into better agreement. An upper level low currently over the Aleutians is shown diving southeast toward the west coast Thursday while phasing with an upper low already churning several hundred miles off the CA coastline. This complex interaction then moves eastward onto the west coast with a broad spectrum of solutions from model guidance. Most deterministic models develop a closed low over SoCal by Friday before pushing it slowly east along the US/MX border and southern NM thru Saturday. The ECMWF is much slower with a strong H5 low still over eastern NM Sunday. AI model versions are even slower with the H5 low still over AZ Sunday. As such, the latest forecast is almost strictly the NBM which drags the higher precip chances and colder air across NM Saturday and Saturday night. Folks planning travel across the region this weekend should keep an eye on the latest forecast since there is potential for an impactful burst of weather over the region, including strong winds, valley rain, mountain snow, low visibility, and hazardous travel. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 Ridge top winds will increase tonight along the central mt chain then spread to the east slopes and nearby high plains thru Tuesday morning. West winds trended weaker on recent guidance but speeds will still be strong enough with min RH near 15% for a few hours of marginal critical fire weather. The main focus area will be from near Clines Corners to Vaughn and northeast Lincoln County. Max temps will also be 10 to 15F above normal over eastern NM. Wednesday and Thursday will feature lighter winds again with above normal temps, low humidity, and increasing high clouds. The next storm system is trending slower for Friday and winds have trended lighter. Southwest gusts up to 35 mph are still possible around the high terrain and eastern NM. Model guidance is all over the place with timing, placement, and strength of the next system for the weekend. At this time, confidence is high that conditions will turn colder but the coverage of rain and snow is still uncertain. There is potential for parts of the high terrain to see the first noteworthy snowfall of the season with wetting rainfall possible elsewhere thru Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 32 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 63 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 64 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 27 68 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 33 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 27 70 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 69 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 75 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 30 78 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 60 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 31 59 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 61 19 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 64 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 36 68 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 70 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 37 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 65 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 33 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 28 69 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 36 71 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 28 69 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 30 69 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 40 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 36 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 68 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 68 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 36 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 37 68 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 73 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 29 74 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 44 75 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 33 74 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 79 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 76 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 36 77 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 78 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 80 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 79 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 34 83 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 36 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...11