574
FXUS65 KABQ 110736
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1236 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

- West wind gusts up to 40 mph will impact areas from Clines
  Corners, to Vaughn, and across northeast Lincoln County today.

- Temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of record highs
  across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and again Thursday
  afternoon.

- Confidence is increasing for cooler and unsettled weather this
  weekend. Valley rain and mountain snowfall may impact parts of
  the region between Friday night and Sunday. However, there is
  still a lot of uncertainty with the storm track, timing, snow
  levels, precipitation coverage and intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Quiet conditions will persist overnight. Increasing northwest
flow aloft to around 30kt through sunrise will allow for mountain
wave activity to develop along and east of the Central Mountain
Chain. In fact, satellite imagery suggests this activity has
already begin across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. A lee side surface
trough will allow for breezy to locally windy conditions to
develop this morning along and south of the I-40 corridor across
eastern NM, particularly across the Central Highlands. This will
continue into the afternoon as the surface low sags into east
central NM. With downsloping aiding the warming, high temperatures
should climb to within a few degrees of records across eastern
NM, though a slight warmup is expected across western NM as well.
However, as the surface low sags southward, a weak front will
follow. This will cool temperatures a few degrees across eastern
NM for Wednesday, though high temperatures will remain above
normal areawide. Both today and Wednesday should really be
fantastic days to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

After a quiet night, Thursday should be another great day, and
very similar to today. High temperatures across eastern NM will
warm back up with light westerly breezes and high temperatures
should again be within a few degrees of records for the date.

As suspected, the weekend system has slowed, and it could slow
further. For now, Friday doesn`t look to be quite as cool as once
forecast as the upper level low will still be over the coast of
California by late afternoon Friday. Instead, flow aloft will back
and become southwesterly. The surface low/trough also continues
to trend weaker, thus winds on Friday will not be as strong as
once expected. There will be a few breezes, and Las Vegas and
Clines Corners will be a little windy at times in the afternoon,
but overall, not much to write home about. High temperatures will
cool a little across the west, but will be similar to Thursday
across the east.

Precipitation may begin moving into western NM Friday night, but
the low is progged to be near the upper Baja Peninsula/CA/SW AZ
border even by late day Saturday, so chances are low. AI models
are even suggesting the low will still be over the Pacific! Thus,
now it seems the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until
Saturday night or Sunday - and if AI models are correct, even
later. For now it seems like the upper low will begin to shift
eastward Saturday night then take a northeast turn Sunday,
crossing portions of NM. Given significant differences in the
timing and track of the low, confidence is low on the current
forecast, and confidence is high than additional forecast changes
will occur. Nonetheless, regardless of track and timing, valley
rain and mountain snow continue to seem like a good bet, with at
least some light snow accumulations at high elevations. Even
though the low isn`t progged to be quite as far south as it was
yesterday as it crosses NM, it`s also not as deep, so snow levels
may only drop to between 7500 and 8500 feet. Models are hinting at
some weak lee side cyclogenesis once the low tracks toward NE NM
or SW KS, so there seems to be a low chance of some breezy
conditions on the back side of the system Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 856 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Gusty westerly winds will impact the Central Highlands
between KLVS and KROW on Tuesday, but otherwise winds will be
light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Dry and warm conditions are expected through at least Thursday.
Locally breezy to windy conditions today and again Thursday
afternoon combined with sub-15% RH will result in elevated fire
weather conditions across the central highlands and east central
plains. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the storm system
Friday through the weekend, but winds continue to trend lighter on
Friday, and the bulk of the precipitation is now forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. This system could slow down further, pushing
precipitation chances into Monday. Regardless of timing, valley
rain and mountain snow should be on tap, with some light
accumulation possible across the high terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  32  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  65  22  64  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  65  30  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  68  27  67  26 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  66  33  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  69  27  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  68  32  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  65  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  67  35  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  30  75  29 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  74  33  78  33 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  60  27  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  60  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  64  36  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  62  34  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  59  30  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  60  22  62  17 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  64  25  65  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  65  35  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  66  30  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  62  37  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  63  31  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  41  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  35  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  32  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  37  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  65  29  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65  35  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  64  28  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  65  35  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  63  30  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  40  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  66  35  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  37  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  62  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  63  32  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  25  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  61  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  61  34  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  60  33  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  36  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  62  39  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  65  35  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  66  30  73  29 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  67  28  75  28 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  65  35  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  69  43  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  63  34  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  68  32  80  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  40  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  35  78  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  38  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  38  80  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  32  80  33 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  66  35  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  68  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  68  37  75  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11