Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
652 FXUS65 KABQ 051934 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 134 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will return Monday through Wednesday this week. Areas near and east of the central mountain chain will be favored Monday before showers and storms spread to more of northern and central New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A vigorous shortwave is currently dropping into ID early this afternoon with another weaker perturbation sliding just offshore of the CA coast. The latter is outlining a longer wave trough feature over the western ConUS. Southwesterly flow aloft continues over NM with 700 mb speeds of 20-30 kt keeping some breeziness going, especially over eastern zones this afternoon. Some high-based fair weather cumulus will dot the eastern skies, but clear skies will be seen elsewhere. Breezes will subside around sunset with another cool night in store with effective radiational cooling and some light mountain drainage breezes setting up for many western and central zones. The other feature of note will be a backdoor front that will slide into northeastern zones, bringing a northeasterly wind shift and some low stratus clouds. A few showers cannot be ruled out along and near the leading edge of the frontal boundary, especially where moisture/surface convergence will be maximized through dawn Monday, but a few warm air advection sector showers farther south are not totally out of the question either. The prospects for showers and thunderstorms grow more for eastern zones into Monday afternoon. The front will have more or less stalled with moist return flow keeping moisture advection going. PWATs will rise to 1.0 inch or better in the southeastern third or so of the state Monday with areas east of the central mountain chain likely being fair game for showers/storms as diurnal heating ensues. East central areas will initiate storms easiest, assuming the surface convergence and instability are highest there as models depict. A strong to severe storm or two are not out of the realm of possibilities either for Monday afternoon, as sufficient deep layer shear will exist. Global models and higher resolution CAMs indicate showers and storms continuing over eastern zones through the overnight into Tuesday morning. A gusty gap/canyon wind will also develop in vulnerable locations like eastern ABQ late Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Into Tuesday, Monday night`s convection and a deepening moist southerly flow will help draw moisture farther west, causing storm coverage to expand toward the Continental Divide and just beyond. The Rio Grande valley, central mountain chain, and portions of the eastern plains will also remain active with PWATs reaching a 0.75 to 1.0 inch range for much of these areas. Drier values in west central, northwestern, and north central zones will inhibit storm development Tuesday, but moisture should gradually expand more northwestward into Wednesday. This will put Wednesday`s focus for storms between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain. By Wednesday, the southwesterlies aloft would be weakening some over NM as the former offshore CA disturbance gets sheared apart inland over the intermountain west and the upper high builds into TX and southeastern NM. Storms would still be drifting eastbound at 10-20 mph on Wednesday with coverage forecast to trend down Wednesday night. By Thursday, forecast model consensus is leaning toward a scenario that puts the upper high farther into NM. Some moisture will be left for recycling, but with shorter temporal windows for diurnal heating and subsidence brought on with the ridge, much less storm activity is forecast Thursday afternoon. A strong upper low will be approaching the Pacific Northwest states Thursday, dropping toward the OR/CA coastline on Friday. It looks as though the ridge will continue to limit storms over NM into Friday, but the Pacific Northwest low will begin a progression inland with its remnants being the primary influencer with the weekend`s weather in NM. Tropical cyclone activity in the far eastern Pacific will also be influential along with any subtropical moisture taps, depending how deep the late week low digs before moving inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Just a few high-based, fair weather cumulus are expected over east central to southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Breezy conditions will also persist through sunset, mainly at eastern sites. A cold front will sag into northeastern New Mexico tonight into Monday morning with low stratus clouds and scattered MVFR (ceilings less than 3000 ft) and spotty IFR (ceilings less than 1000 ft) conditions accompanying. Low clouds will burn off and erode away through the late morning with showers and thunderstorms developing in east central New Mexico Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 No significant or widespread fire weather concerns are looming for the next several days. Breezy and dry conditions will persist this afternoon, mainly in eastern NM, through sunset. A moist backdoor front will then arrive tonight from the northeast, setting the stage for shower and thunderstorm development Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Soaking rainfall potential is still fairly low to moderate (20-60%) with central zones being the most likely to receive at least 0.10" of rain Monday through Wednesday. Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will also accompany the front and associated showers/storms. Drier conditions look to wrap up the work week Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds into NM from TX. There is potential for the ridge to break down into next weekend with low probability for additional showers and storms, mostly in northwestern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 74 42 78 / 0 0 5 10 Dulce........................... 31 72 34 73 / 0 5 10 20 Cuba............................ 39 73 41 71 / 0 5 10 40 Gallup.......................... 29 74 32 78 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 32 73 35 74 / 0 5 5 30 Grants.......................... 31 77 34 74 / 0 5 10 40 Quemado......................... 34 76 37 77 / 0 5 5 20 Magdalena....................... 46 76 49 73 / 0 10 10 50 Datil........................... 37 74 40 73 / 0 5 10 40 Reserve......................... 39 78 42 80 / 0 0 10 20 Glenwood........................ 46 83 49 84 / 0 0 10 20 Chama........................... 34 66 36 66 / 0 5 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 70 48 68 / 0 10 20 40 Pecos........................... 41 71 44 63 / 0 20 30 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 68 41 67 / 0 10 20 30 Red River....................... 31 62 34 60 / 0 10 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 21 65 32 63 / 0 20 30 30 Taos............................ 36 72 41 69 / 0 10 20 20 Mora............................ 36 67 40 62 / 0 20 30 40 Espanola........................ 40 77 45 74 / 0 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 43 73 47 69 / 0 20 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 76 46 72 / 0 10 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 78 54 74 / 0 10 20 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 81 55 76 / 0 10 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 83 48 78 / 0 10 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 81 52 76 / 0 10 10 30 Belen........................... 48 84 52 81 / 0 5 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 46 81 50 76 / 0 10 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 45 82 49 79 / 0 10 20 40 Corrales........................ 47 81 50 77 / 0 10 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 47 82 51 79 / 0 10 10 40 Placitas........................ 47 77 51 73 / 0 10 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 48 80 51 76 / 0 10 20 30 Socorro......................... 52 84 56 81 / 0 5 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 74 47 68 / 0 10 20 50 Tijeras......................... 47 75 49 70 / 0 10 20 50 Edgewood........................ 42 75 47 68 / 0 20 20 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 77 44 70 / 0 20 20 50 Clines Corners.................. 44 72 46 62 / 0 20 30 40 Mountainair..................... 44 76 47 71 / 0 10 20 50 Gran Quivira.................... 46 76 48 71 / 0 10 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 54 80 55 75 / 5 20 10 40 Ruidoso......................... 46 73 46 65 / 10 20 20 50 Capulin......................... 38 63 42 58 / 5 20 40 40 Raton........................... 39 67 45 61 / 5 20 40 30 Springer........................ 40 71 46 64 / 0 20 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 38 69 44 60 / 0 20 40 40 Clayton......................... 46 64 47 60 / 10 10 60 40 Roy............................. 42 68 47 60 / 0 20 50 40 Conchas......................... 48 75 51 66 / 5 30 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 48 76 50 65 / 5 30 50 40 Tucumcari....................... 51 76 51 67 / 10 30 50 30 Clovis.......................... 57 80 55 69 / 10 30 40 30 Portales........................ 57 83 56 73 / 20 30 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 54 81 55 70 / 10 30 50 30 Roswell......................... 60 86 60 76 / 10 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 53 81 54 71 / 10 30 20 40 Elk............................. 51 78 52 68 / 10 20 20 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52