269
FXUS63 KABR 152124
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Monday, with highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- 20% chance of light rain over mainly north central SD late this
afternoon through tonight. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- There is a 40% chance of precipitation Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. While precipitation will be mainly in the form of
rain Monday afternoon, colder air moving late Monday night into
Tuesday morning will result in a wintry mix of mainly rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Radar returns are showing up over portions of western ND and
northwestern SD. These are backed up, at least just north/northwest
of our border, over ND by ND DOT webcams showing either wet roads or
active rain on. Will keep our 20% chance of precipitation going for
mainly north central SD through the early overnight hours.

There are some indications that fog could develop over southwestern
ND and possibly over portions of wester/central SD. At this point,
after looking at the available moisture and visibility forecast from
several CAMs, we`ll keep any mention out of our forecast for now.
The idea is that any fog that does develop will stay west of our
forecast area.

While most areas will experience high relative humidity recoveries,
over and near the higher elevations of northeastern South
Dakota/Prairie Coteau will only rebound to around 60 percent Sunday
morning and again Monday morning. Fortunately, winds will be light
as the surface high over the Dakotas will reside over our
northeastern counties 03-18Z Sunday. Even on the back side of the
surface high Sunday afternoon, winds will only be around 5-10 mph
out of the south-southeast. It will be another day of low to
moderate Grassland Fire Danger Index values.

The pressure gradient will increase Sunday night, with winds out of
an easterly direction 10-18 mph with gusts near 25 mph by daybreak
for locations over and west of the Prairie Coteau. The elongated
surface trough to our west will be set up from southwestern SD
through western KS at 18Z Monday as light rain starts to move into
central SD. The main focus will be the southern low, as it deepens
over northeastern SD/southwestern NE by 06Z Tuesday and colder air
moves in behind the low over our area. Ensemble forecast support a
larger swath of rain or snow in the forecast for Monday night into
Tuesday morning. With the assistance of the forecast wet bulb
temperature, we were able to make some adjustments to increase the
coverage area for rain or snow. Without this adjustment, more of a
rain-only forecast was being produced. This is backed by looking at
ensemble soundings, where temperatures below 700mb are hovering very
close to the 0C line. The surface low will shift across northern MO
Tuesday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure quickly sinks/rotates
in from the northeast across SD, quickly putting an end to lingering
precipitation. The chance of 0.10" or more precipitation is near 40
percent across a majority of the forecast area.

A weak cold front looks to sink in from Canada Thursday/Thursday
night, accompanied by a 20-30% chance of precipitation. Rain again
looks to be the primary precipitation type at this point. Overall
precipitation amounts look to be less than Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday, with only a 20 percent chance of 0.10" or greater.

Highs through Saturday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s
(excluding Tuesday and Friday when we could get some upper 30s
over the Prairie Coteau). Lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to remain over the next 24 hours.
Winds will be light as they shift from out of the northwest to out
of the east-southeast behind the exiting surface high this evening
at MBG/PIR and between 10 and 15Z Sunday at ABR/ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06