609
FXUS63 KABR 011932
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
232 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of Clippers will pass through the region, with limited
  chances for moisture.

- The next Clipper moves through Tomorrow, with Sisseton hills
  downslope winds (40+ mph) in the morning out ahead of, and
  strong northwesterly winds (30-40 mph) for north central South
  Dakota in the afternoon on the backside of this system.

- The upcoming work week also features slight above (5-15 degrees)
  normal temperatures with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
  30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Stratus, with ceilings around 3-4kft have stalled across the
eastern CWA while a band of Cirrus is moving in from the west,
this as surface high pressure, originally overhead this morning,
shifts south. On the northern periphery of this high tonight,
winds become predominantly south-southwesterly. Low clouds in the
east may keep temperatures stable this evening before this
favorable mixing direction and warm air aloft balance diabatic
cooling. Only other weather to note for tonight is that CAMS are
identifying Prairie Coteau/Sisseton hill downslope with a peak of
about 45kts in the critical layer early Sunday morning - meaning
40-50mph gusts in those locally favored downslope areas.

As we transition to the day Sunday, with a warm airmass just off the
surface overhead with a cold front coming down out of North Dakota.
This will help enhance mixing and winds, with several hours before
cold advection counters daytime heating in the favorable mixing
environment, meaning it will be one of those days where we warm
up early and then stall. CAMS and NBM are fairly consistent with
some `higher` dewpoint air pooling or being brought in from the
west within this frontal boundary. Thus, humidity doesn`t get low
enough to meet Red Flag criteria. As for winds, mixed winds in NAM
BUFKIT top out at 30kts at Hettinger, but the NBM 5.0 is up into
the upper 30s with a 25th-75th percentile range of 32 to 39kts
respectively. Given the favorable mixing conditions will lean
closer to the NBM 5.0 mean. It should be noted that the NBM
deterministic, along with its probabilities, have dropped slightly
for the highest wind area (Corson/Dewey) in the 13Z run.

Later Sunday, NAM brings in a mid-level cloud deck, but with a dry
subcloud layer. Enough evidence for the mention of some sprinkles,
but again this is coming mainly from the EC ensembles.

The active Pacific Jet with a series of waves moving across the
Rockies and ejecting into the Plains means a fairly typical
scattershot of Clipper systems continues through next week. That
pattern may break down late next week, but in the interim, we`ll
be going back and forth between mild modified Pacific air and
cooler Canadian airmasses. The next warm surge, for Tuesday, is
less impressive in comparison to the warmup Tomorrow, and the one
for Thursday is more on par in relation to Tomorrows. Neither
comes with much more than a few ensemble members generating a few
hundreds of moisture.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with some VFR CIGS over KABR/KATY
that will go through the afternoon. Winds shift to south and
southwest ahead of a system.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07