231
FXUS63 KABR 261739 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1139 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  December. Below zero wind chills area possible over northern SD
  each morning Thursday through Sunday. Wind chills will fall into
  the teens to near 20 below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Snow will return Friday into Saturday morning. There is a 50-70%
  chance of 2" or more snow west of a line from Mobridge to
  Highmore, and Wessington Springs, while 20-30% south and west of
  Pierre. Most of the snow is expected Friday afternoon through
  daybreak Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 851 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

No updates planned to the today period forecast. Breezy northwest
winds with gusts up to 30 mph to persist across far northeast
South Dakota/west central Minnesota through about mid-day before
diminishing. Patchy blowing snow is in the forecast for that area
for the wind. Otherwise, cold (low level CAA ongoing) with
surface high pressure slowly nosing into the region from the west.

UPDATE Issued at 516 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

As of 08z, there are some scattered areas of occasional light snow
flurries over far northeastern SD and west central MN. These snow
flurries should dissipate shortly. After this snow dissipates,
precipitation will stay out of central and northeastern SD through
Thursday evening as high surface pressure to the west will start to
move over central and northeastern SD.

As the surface low pressure over western WI continues to move east
and the high surface pressure starts to move into western and
central SD, a tight pressure gradient between the two continues to
be over northeastern SD and west central MN. This tight pressure
gradient and some weaker areas of low-level CAA will continue to
keep stronger winds gusting over northeastern SD and west central MN
through the morning and mid-afternoon. There is 40-70% chance for
winds to gust above 30 mph along and east of I-29 through the mid-
morning before decreasing below 30 before noon. Winds will continue
to decrease speed through the afternoon. However, there is still a
20-40% chance for winds to gust around and slightly above 30 mph
along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau through the mid-
afternoon due to some downsloping winds. These winds will continue
to cause drifting snow in northeastern SD and west central MN.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will stay cold, as they will be 5-10
degrees colder than normal, with Thursday being a bit colder. Highs
today will be in the low 20s to low 30s dropping into the upper
teens to upper 20s Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
single digits to teens. While winds tonight and Thursday will be
calmer than they were Tuesday and during the day today, they will
still be strong enough to cause wind chills to be in the single
digits and even get below 0 in north central SD tonight. Even with
these colder temperatures, some models are forecasting patchy fog
over north central SD tonight. Some of these models were a lot more
aggressive with fog coverage than what was put on the grids, so if
this more aggressive trend continues in the models and/or more
models pick up on the fog over the next few runs, than fog coverage
might need to be expanded.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Continued cold and another round of snow are the main concerns from
Thursday night on. Travel may be impacted Friday, with a reminder
that now is the time to keep winter weather gear and emergency kits
on hand.

At 00Z Friday we`ll still be under northwesterly flow at 500mb with
the main low over Quebec and an open wave move across western WA and
western Canada. The wave to our northwest will move over MT/WY
Friday, and our area on Saturday, with a broad trough remaining
overhead through at least Monday night. No significant warm up is
expected until then, with cold air entrenched across the region.

At the surface, a 1036mb high will be overhead, before exiting
across western MN/IA by 12Z Friday. We`ll then be watching the
elongated surface low stretching from WY through eastern CO. A CO low
is expected to form and move over western KS Friday night, all the
while pushing an inverted trough over SD Friday into Friday night.

A northwest to southeastward swath of precipitation still looks to
come in for Friday through mainly Saturday morning (highest Friday
afternoon through 12Z Saturday). Timing will continue to be fine
tuned. The 24 hour probabilities peak at a 50-70% chance of 2" or
more west of a line from Mobridge to Highmore, and Wessington
Springs, while 20-30% south and west of Pierre. This is an increase
of about 10% over the past couple of runs, and a slight eastern
shift from 24 hours ago. Looking at the probabilities of 4" or more,
they are 30-50% from Bowdle to Aberdeen down through Highmore and
Clear Lake. The highest probabilities are over southeastern SD at
this time, which remains consistent.

Winds look munch lighter than our Tuesday storm, with soundings
indicating winds less than 25kts through 600mb. The highest winds
are currently forecast to be over south central SD, around 25kts
Friday afternoon. While temperatures stay well below freezing over
most of the forecast area, a wintry mix of rain or snow will be
possible mainly south of Jones County as temperatures rise into the
mid to upper 30s. Highs elsewhere will be mainly in the 20s Friday.

NBM probabilities of 1 mile visibility or less are around 15%,
peaking during the afternoon hours. On the lower end, the EC
Ensemble visibility meteograms continue to show a around a 30%
chance of visibilities around 1/4 mile or less 00Z-18Z at
Aberdeen/Sisseton/Watertown Friday, and closer to 40% through around
12Z at Mobridge, with less of a concern at Pierre.

Dry weather should return Friday night through at least Wednesday,
with only a 15% chance of light snow forecast Tuesday night. Highs
will be in the teens and 20s Saturday through Wednesday, coldest
Sunday/Monday with some highs in the single digits across our higher
elevations. Lows will be in the single digits below zero over much
of northern SD/west central MN Saturday morning and Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KATY is the only terminal that remains in some category below VFR
(cigs) early this afternoon. Streamer of low clouds continues to
work south onto the Prairie Coteau, so not overly confident that
KATY will ever clear off today. Other then some late night/early
morning (IFR) fog potential at KMBG Thursday morning, VFR should
prevail over the next 24 hours at KPIR, KMBG and KABR. Guidance
has low clouds sticking around at KATY through the end of the TAF
valid period. Winds should go light and variable by early this
evening at KPIR/KMBG. But, KABR and KATY will probably maintain a
light northwest wind less than 10 knots, while surface high
pressure hangs on across western/central South Dakota overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...06
AVIATION...10