200
FXUS63 KABR 221002
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
402 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal through
  Monday, in the 40s and 50s. Today and Sunday will be the
  warmest days.

- Turning markedly colder starting Tuesday, as temperatures drop
  into the teens at night and 20s and low 30s during the day.

- There is a 30-50 percent chance of precipitation starting Monday
  morning through Tuesday. The precipitation type will be rain
  Monday, before transitioning to snow on Tuesday.

- In addition to any falling snow Tuesday, there is the potential
  for strong northwest winds in excess of 30 mph with gusts in
  excess of 45 mph to develop Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

We`re starting out this morning with an area of low pressure set
up mainly over southern Manitoba, with a cold front stretching
southwest through ND and far western SD. Winds behind the front
have increased out of the west with gusts of 20-30mph. The dry
cold front will be mainly associated with some clouds and the
change in wind direction/speed. The cold front will sink along the
SD/NE border trough central MN by 18Z and with high pressure
quickly building in it. Despite the cold front, temperatures will
still rise into the 50s today, which is 10 to near 15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Slightly warmer air will move
in Sunday, still topping out in the 50s, as a warm front shifts
north across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday night through Monday, the split upper-level flow over SD
pushes an upper-level low from the southwest US towards the
northeast. At the surface, low pressure over NM/CO starts to move
towards the northeast, though models vary the track and speed
slightly. The models have the low in MN by Monday night, with most
having the low move out of MN by Tuesday afternoon, however, the GFS
keeps the low over eastern MN until Wednesday morning. Precipitation
around this low is forecast to move into southern SD Monday morning
spreading north through the day with 30-60% chance for precipitation
over central and eastern SD by Monday night and 20-40% chance for
precipitation for areas north of I-90 Tuesday. Precipitation should
move out of SD Tuesday night, however if the low follows what the
GFS is showing, precipitation chances could stay around for a bit
longer.

With warmer temperatures around Monday, the precipitation will stay
as rain through the day and into the night. Late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning, the cooler temperatures will start moving in
causing the rain to start changing over to a rain/snow mix then snow
starting in central SD and moving into eastern SD by Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon, the precipitation should be mostly
snow for central and eastern SD. Snowfall amounts from this system
are currently forecast to stay below an inch for most of central and
eastern SD. There does look to be a 30-50% chance for greater than
an inch of snow to fall over the Prairie Coteau and 30-40% chance
for the Leola hills by Wednesday morning. There is a bit of spread
between the ensemble models over the Prairie Coteau for snowfall
amounts, varying between 0.5-4 inches, highest over the Sisseton
hills.

Another hazard to note with this system is the strong winds coming
in as the cold air starts to advect into SD Monday night through
Tuesday. There is a bit of variability in the winds as to the
strength and how long they last, specifically the GFS keeping its
low pressure in MN longer causing winds to be much stronger and
staying around for longer. Ensembles are showing a 30-50% chance for
wind to gust greater than 45mph occurring over central SD during the
day Tuesday while the GFS is showing gusts up around 50-55mph. The
differences between the model solutions, as well as the ensembles
decreasing the wind speeds slightly over the past few runs, causes
some uncertainty in the strength of the winds Monday night through
Tuesday. This will need to be monitored as the system gets close to
see if the solutions come to an agreement. These strong winds in
combination with the snow falling Tuesday have the potential to
cause blowing snow in areas, especially over the Leola hills and
along the Prairie Coteau. This blowing snow could reduce
visibilities at times causing hazards to those who are traveling.

The colder air moving in with this system will cause temperature
that are 10-15 degrees warmer than normal on Monday to drop like a
rock. Higher surface pressure moving into central and eastern SD
with winds from the northwest Wednesday and Thursday will help to
keep precipitation out of the area while also lowering temperatures
to be 5-10 degrees colder than normal by Thursday, with highs in the
20s to low 30s and low temperatures in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals, and winds that shift from south
southwest to west northwest. High clouds coming down out of ND
will generate a sct/bkn ceiling AOA 20-25kft.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...07