584
FXUS63 KABR 122114
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Highs in
  the 60s and 70s on Friday may reach record highs. This comes
  with elevated fire danger too.

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
  more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
  uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
  precipitation amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Rather uneventful across the region with limited impactful weather
into the weekend, but will be highlighting the above normal
temperatures, especially for Friday. Surface ridge axis will move
east tonight and allow for light southerly winds developing into
Thursday. Above normal temps in the mid 50s to low 60s will be
common on Thursday. But again, main focus is on Friday and just how
far we want to go for high temps. A classic case where NBM is likely
too cool with high temps given the favorable low-level mixing winds
from the south-southwest. Air mass looks rather dry as well, with
limited cloud cover. Although, will have to watch cirrus thickness
trends. Went more along the lines of NBM90th for highs on Friday,
which are close to record highs. 925/850 mb temps are between +15C
and +20C across the CWA. On a side note, looking at high fire danger
across central SD, perhaps even approaching very high across the far
southwest CWA where the latest RH forecast is down around 25 percent
with breezy southwest winds.

Cold front then moves south through the region Friday night,
bringing colder temps through the weekend as highs drop back down to
the 40s and 50s. This only gets reinforced as even colder air works
into the region with a dome of surface high pressure sliding south.
By early/middle of next week, expect highs back down into the 30s
and 40s.

As for precipitation during the forecast period, the frontal passage
Friday night looks rather moisture-starved. Cannot rule out a few
showers/virga as the front moves through. Lower levels of the
atmosphere are rather dry, and certainly a non-zero chance forecast
for measurable, but not high enough to warrant even slight chances
(20%) at this time.

Better precip chances (30-50%) arrive on Monday as a system looks to
move eastward across the central/northern plains. Varying strengths
in the surface low are noted amongst the different model camps, so
plenty to sort out yet with this. GEFS is much drier and weaker,
where ENS is wetter and stronger with the surface low. A bit of help
from the CMC 12Z deterministic run showing a more closed off surface
low with more widespread looking precip over the CWA (although more
Monday night/Tuesday). This seems to side more towards the ENS camp.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with generally
light surface winds.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT