101
FXUS63 KABR 172156
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will mainly be in the 40s through next Monday.

- Rain will spread across central to northeastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota tonight, before ending Tuesday morning. Cold
air overnight will result of a wintry mix of rain and snow over
mainly east central South Dakota. The highest snow amounts of around
1-2" is expected over Deuel County, with a light icing of freezing
rain over the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The latest surface weather map shows low pressure over far
northeastern WY and another low over central KS. Also of note is an
elongated area of high pressure stretching from north central Canada
through northeastern MT/WI. Ahead of the low, a large swath of thick
clouds has moved over South Dakota. We`re starting to see a
convective look to some of these clouds near and west of PIR, which
is expected. So far today, most of the thunderstorm activity has
been over southeastern SD (and briefly west of Jones county prior to
20Z). Thunderstorms will remain possible over our southern counties
into the early evening hours, with most of any thunderstorm activity
remaining to our south/east.

By 03Z the 2 surface lows will organize across central to eastern
NE/KS, with the pivoting band of rain currently from around PIR to
southeastern SD expanding north to our northern SD counties. Just
how far north the rain can get is a bit of an unknown/lower
confidence. While areas near the ND/SD border may stay dry tonight,
it can`t be completely ruled out that light rain occurs.

The highest amounts of precipitation will be from from Highmore and
Gettysburg east through Watertown and Clear Lake, with amounts
generally around a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Cold air
moving in early Tuesday morning will result in a wintry mix of rain
and snow over east central South Dakota, and even a light icing of
freezing rain (around a trace to 0.03") over the eastern slopes of
the Prairie Coteau from near Summit through South Shore. The highest
chances for accumulating snow will be over east central South
Dakota, with snowfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches will be across
Deuel County. While most of the snow will quickly melt as it touches
the wet and warm ground over east central South Dakota, a quick
burst of snow could result in brief slushy roads. Precipitation will
come to an end over central South Dakota by 09Z and over eastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota by 16Z as the surface high
to our northeast will push a ridge into our forecast area.

Temperatures over eastern SD will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s
by early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions start the period, with MVFR ceilings near PIR at
times (PROB30) as early as 19Z. Low pressure sliding across NE/KS
will bring rain to most of our TAF sites, while staying mainly
dry at MBG. Cold air moving in overnight will bring the potential
for RA/SN at ATY after 05Z Tuesday. Expect MVFR ceilings at most
locations overnight through 18Z Tuesday, with the highest
potential for IFR conditions at PIR and ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06