628
FXUS63 KABR 230221 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
821 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with some
  locations flirting with 60 degrees.

- Much colder by mid/late next week, with highs in the 20s/30s and
  lows in the single digits and teens.

- Rain chances (50-70%) across southeast SD, northwest IA,
  southwest MN, into northeast NE Monday. Amounts look to be less
  than 0.25in.

- Snow potential increasing for Tuesday/Tuesday night across northern
  SD into west central MN, where 1 to perhaps as much as 4 inches
  (higher elevations in the Coteau) are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

No updates needed tonight. Forecast appears to be in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The remainder of the weekend looks quiet, with much above normal
temperatures. Surface ridge axis moves over the region this evening,
then shifts east into MN between 06Z and 12Z Sunday. At that time,
light southerly winds develop as well. South to southwest winds and
mostly sunny skies on Sunday will allow temps to warm rather nicely
as 925mb temps rise to between +10C and +15C by Sunday afternoon.
Temps look to rise into the mid/upper 50s, perhaps even low 60s
across portions of south central SD.

Will then be watching two separate areas of low pressure moving
eastward across the central/northern plains Monday into Tuesday.
First low on Monday looks to bring best chances (50-70%) for
rainfall to mainly southeast SD and into adjacent parts of northwest
IA and northeast NE. Further north, lesser chances around 30 percent
or less over east central and northeast SD. Precip amounts look
light, with most areas generally less than 0.25in.

Next wave of precipitation (in the form of snow) looks to affect
mainly northern SD into west central MN Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Models now latching onto a solution that looks to bring snowfall to
the area, something not seen 24 hours ago when the GFS was
considered an outlier. Current snowfall forecast does feature a
general 1 to perhaps 4 inches across northern SD into west central
MN, highest up on the Coteau in the higher elevations. Lesser
amounts across southeast SD into northwest IA and northeast NE from
a dusting to nothing at all. Will continue to monitor trends with
this system.

Still looking at colder air overspreading the region by the middle
and end of next week, with highs in the 20s and 30s while lows drop
into the single digits and teens. Still looking at a potential storm
system towards the very end of the 7-day forecast period as 20-30
percent chances creep in by Saturday. Still much to digest in
regards to storm track/intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Sunday
afternoon with scattered to few high clouds passing over the
region. Northwest winds will gradually become south/southwest by
early Sunday morning, continuing through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10