835
FXUS63 KABR 231001
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
401 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today in the 50s, with a few 60s over
south central South Dakota will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Highs Wednesday through at least next Sunday will be around 10
degrees below normal. Highs will be mainly in the 20s, with 30s over
south central South Dakota Wednesday through Friday. Wind chills a
few of those mornings will be below 0.

- Fog is possible overnight tonight through Monday morning, mainly
along the James River Valley and across portions of the Prairie
Coteau.

- Winds will increase Tuesday morning, with gusts of 35 to 50 mph
Tuesday afternoon. The strongest winds will be over central South
Dakota.

- A 30 percent chance of light rain over north central South Dakota
Monday evening will expand over the rest of central to northeastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota by Tuesday morning. Rain
will change over to snow during the day Tuesday, before ending
Tuesday evening. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for greater than
an inch of snow over northeastern South Dakota Tuesday through
Tuesday night, with the highest amounts expected over Marshall
County. Patchy blowing snow will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday
evening over north central to northeastern South Dakota.

- The combination of little to no precipitation and strong winds
will result in high to potentially very high Grassland Fire Danger
Index values over portions of central South Dakota on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A surface trough will push across western and central South
Dakota during the day today. Dry weather will continue. Temperatures
today will again rise into the 50s, with a few 60s over south
central South Dakota. While winds will be generally less than 10
mph over central South Dakota, they will be out of the south to
southwest with gusts of 20 to 30 mph over eastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota this afternoon. The strongest winds will
be over and just east of the Prairie Coteau.

Light winds and ample low level moisture will result the development
of patchy fog overnight tonight into Monday morning, mainly along the
James River Valley and across the higher elevations of northeastern
South Dakota. We`ll continue to fine tune the coverage area, but
the James River Valley looks to be the most likely area at this
time.

A cold front sinking across the area Monday morning will result in
slightly cooler air, with highs Monday in the upper 40s to low
50s. The rain we were forecasting for Monday is now expected to
stay mainly to our south (clipping only Deuel County Monday
afternoon) as the surface low to our south looks to track farther
to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The main concern for Monday evening onward is snow and winds on
Tuesday and falling temperatures through the week. To start, there
will be rain moving into northern SD Monday night that will slowly
change over to a rain/snow mix then snow Tuesday morning, with 50-
70% chance for precipitation to occur over northeastern SD during
the day Tuesday. There is a 20-45% chance for precipitation to occur
over southeast SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA during the day
Tuesday. For this area, the transition from rain to a rain/snow mix
is forecast to occur Tuesday afternoon then snow late in the
afternoon. Snow chances then move out of eastern SD as well as
southwest MN, and northwest IA during Tuesday evening. The surface
low pressure that will be moving this precipitation into the area
has shifted more to the north in the past few models runs, which has
caused the higher snowfall amounts to move further to the north than
previous forecast. There is a 30-60% chance for greater than an inch
of snow to fall over northeastern SD, with the highest chances over
the northern Prairie Coteau around 3 inches. Additionally the
probability for a half inch or more of snowfall is around or greater
than 20% north of US HWY 14, with the chances increasing to the
north.

With the stronger low pressure to the northeast and high pressure
building to the west of SD, a tight pressure gradient over the state
forms Monday night into Tuesday. This tight pressure gradient along
with the stronger CAA occurring during this time will help to develop
strong winds and get these winds down to the surface. Model
ensembles are showing a 30-50% chance for winds to gust greater than
45mph over areas west of the James River Tuesday morning and
afternoon. South central SD has the highest chances for these wind
gusts, around 50-70% chance for greater than 45mph and 30-50% chance
for greater than 50mph. These stronger winds could cause blowing
snow to occur Tuesday, which would create hazardous traveling
conditions in areas by reducing visibilities.

The cold air advecting in to the area will cause our above average
temperatures to drop Monday evening through the week. By Thursday
and into the weekend, the temperature will be 5-10 degrees colder
than normal, with highs in the low 20s to low 30s and low
temperatures in the teens to single digits. High surface pressure is
forecast to move over central and eastern SD, northwest IA,
southwest MN, and northeast NE Tuesday night. This high pressure
will help to keep things dry Wednesday and Thursday. After this, the
models have a lot of variability in the next system that could move
through the area, creating a lot of uncertainty. An eye will have to
be kept on this time period in the next couple of days to see if the
models start to come to a better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all TAF sites through
Sunday evening with scattered high clouds passing over the
region. Light winds will become south/southwest on Sunday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...10