857
FXAK68 PAFC 111444
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds will continue through the extended forecast.
  Although winds diminish tonight into Fri, winds increase again
  Fri night in Valdez, Seward/Resurrection Bay, the Matanuska
  Valley, and the waters around Kodiak Island with lower
  confidence with how long those winds will remain elevated.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills persist until at least the end
  of this week. A Cold Weather Advisory is currently in effect
  through Fri afternoon for the Copper River Basin and through the
  Thompson Pass area. Cold air across Southcentral has caused some
  rivers to begin freezing quickly. There could be some ice
  jamming of rivers as they freeze over. A hydrological outlook
  has been posted.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through
  frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on
  others.

Discussion:

Stubborn high pressure remains over the Bering Sea with northerly
flow spanning across Alaska. A trough is over the Gulf with a
weak low circulating well offshore. As this trough moves out of
the area to the south and high pressure builds in, winds will
gradually decrease, becoming mostly calm this afternoon.

The relatively calm, but very cold conditions will continue
through Friday morning. However, by Friday afternoon, a strong
upper trough drops into Southcentral. The first effect of this
trough is gusty winds in Whittier and Seward, reaching over 40 mph
through Saturday. Then, gusty winds return to the Matanuska
Valley and Valdez with gusts to 50 mph expected. Higher gusts up
to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Another round of cold air also
arrives on Saturday with this trough. Apparent temperatures have
the potential to be just as cold or perhaps even colder with this
arctic airmass. The Climate Prediction Center`s outlook for the
next couple weeks continues to favor towards colder than normal
for most of the state. Cold temperatures with the overall synoptic
pattern persisting also favors gap winds. Timing and intensity of
the cold and winds will continue to be the primary forecast
challenge across Southcentral through the next week.

Rux/JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure will remain situated over the southern Bering and
Eastern Aleutians through the period. Morning satellite shows
continued clear skies across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian
Chain. Higher clouds associated with an upper trough are
overspreading the northern Bering and Pribilof Islands. Cool
morning low temperatures range from the single digits along the
Bristol Bay Coast down into the minus teens up into the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Valley. The coldest spot is currently Aniak
which is minus 22 degrees.

For the rest of the day mostly clear skies are forecast across
Southwest Alaska and the Eastern Aleutians. An upper trough moving
into the Seward Peninsula later today into early Friday will
bring increasing clouds into the Kuskokwim Delta along with
southwesterly winds and "warming" temperatures. A chance for light
precipitation will accompany the trough`s passage, though any
precipitation will be very light with no accumulations
anticipated. A warm nose over the YK Delta may support a brief
period of freezing rain mixing in with snow after 9pm tonight and
through the early morning hours on Friday. Temperatures will then
peak on Friday sometime around 9am with highs in the 20s and 30s
for much of Southwest Alaska.

Dry conditions return to the region through Saturday. Gusty
northerly winds will be the primary impacts through the weekend
from Southwest Alaska into the Aleutians. Winds of 15 to 25 mph
will gust from 30 to 45 mph from the Greater Bristol Bay region
down into the Alaska Peninsula.

BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

This weekend, an expansive area of high pressure will be centered
over the northern Bering Sea and extend across the rest of the
Bering Sea. This high pressure will aid in pulling Arctic Air
south across the state, causing a trough to dig across the
southern mainland and around a low in the Gulf of Alaska. This
will create the potential for another round of prolonged high
winds through gaps and passes, cold temperatures, and wind
chills. A shortwave low will descend from eastern Russia Monday
afternoon, but remain offshore until it crosses the Alaska
Peninsula by Tuesday morning. A complex surface low in the Gulf of
Alaska could retrograde just enough early next week to bring some
light snow to the north Gulf coast and parts of the Copper River
Basin, but forecast confidence is still low. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue region-wide, which could persist for the next
several weeks as this general pattern of cold, dry weather looks
to stick around.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.
Occasional gusts up to 15 kt are possible before diminishing this
evening.

&&


$$