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FXAK68 PAFC 040118
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A broad negatively-tilted upper level trough continues to drive
much of the unsettled pattern across Southcentral, with calm winds
but precipitation occurring largely in the form of showers.
Numerous shortwaves embedded in the trough drive southeasterly
flow which are bringing in scattered snow or rain showers to the
region. A new shortwave is approaching Southcentral this evening,
behind which disorganized snow showers across the Kenai Peninsula
and Anchorage will be supported. Snow showers tonight through
Tuesday will be generally weak and transient, lending towards
lower accumulation totals. The fickle showery pattern driven by
weak shortwaves is expected to continue into midweek, with most of
Tuesday and Wednesday appearing to be lacking significant support
for precipitation. Locally gusty winds through Thompson Pass are
expected to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning where
gusty winds may loft any available snow on the roadway. Northerly
flow will establish over most of mainland Southcentral Tuesday
afternoon, continuing the ongoing cooling trend.

The pattern is set to shift Wednesday as an organized low pressure
system enters the northern Gulf of Alaska. This will increase
northerly coastal winds and precipitation, including a push of
moisture inland towards the Copper River Basin by Wednesday
afternoon, likely precipitating as snowfall. Through Wednesday
night into Thursday the low pressure system will receive more
upper-level support, allowing the influence of the system to
spread into spread through Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and
portions of the Mat-Su valleys by Thursday morning. We will
continue to monitor this system and the potential snowfall totals
for areas like Anchorage, the Hillside and lower elevations.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

The upper-level trough across mainland Southwest Alaska has been
stubborn to move along. As of 2:30 PM AKST, satellite imagery
shows that the trough axis is just about to, or just did, move
east of Bethel. Precipitation should continue to wind down across
the Kuskokwim Delta this evening with any lingering light snow
accumulation to the east and south of Bethel. Light snow moves
into the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range
tonight through Tuesday as the best lift shifts eastward. Rain
and snow showers across the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN),
coming off the Bering Sea within northerly flow, should taper off
by Tuesday morning with a weak ridge moving overhead. With
relatively weak flow overhead tonight/Tuesday morning and again
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, fog is possible across mainland
Southwest during those times with the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast having the best chance for fog development.

The upper-level low responsible for today`s slow eastward moving
trough will move to near Norton Sound through Tuesday. This upper
feature then dives back south through the Kuskokwim Delta
Wednesday evening and into Bristol Bay and across the AKPEN by
Thursday. This will look to kick off another round of light snow
for the Kuskokwim Valley and Interior Kuskokwim Delta Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning. The best chances for a light
accumulation will be along the Kuskokwim Mountains up to Aniak.
Bethel may see some light snow showers Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening with little to no accumulation. The bigger story
will be the strong gusty winds this will bring through the favored
gaps, bays, and passes of the AKPEN Wednesday evening and
Thursday. Along with the gusty northwesterly winds, snow showers
will once again be possible across the Bering side of the AKPEN on
Thursday. In addition to the AKPEN snow chance, there is a chance
for more snow across Interior Bristol Bay, Eastern Kuskokwim
Valley, and along the Western Alaska Range Thursday evening as an
area of deformation looks to setup with interaction between the
shortwave across the southwest coast and a low in the Gulf of
Alaska. The exact placement of best moisture is uncertain at this
time though. Therefore, left PoPs at chance across the
southwestern interior for now until the Gulf low is better
resolved.

Shifting gears to the rest of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, a
trough across Kamchatka digging into the Bering Sea currently
sends a shortwave and weak low pressure to the western Bering and
Western Aleutians this afternoon and evening. Rain, currently over
Shemya and the Western Aleutians, moves east to the Central
Aleutians late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds turn
northwesterly on the backside of this low late tonight across the
Western Aleutians and western Bering and strengthen to gale-force.
The pressure gradient tightens further between the south-central
Bering low and North Pacific high pressure south of Kamchatka and
a little corridor of sustained storm-force winds is possible
Tuesday morning in the western Bering along the Western Aleutians
before winds return back to gale-force in the afternoon. Have
Storm Warnings out for the Western Aleutian marine zones on the
Pacific and Bering side for the Tuesday morning period. However,
the trend in afternoon guidance has been a tick weaker in the wind
field, so this will be something to keep an eye on tonight.

Precipitation shifts from the Central Aleutians Tuesday morning to
the Eastern Aleutians by Tuesday afternoon. With southerly flow
bringing in warmer air, the precipitaiton-type should
predominantly be rain, with maybe the chance for some snow to mix
in at the on-set of precipitation Tuesday afternoon before the
warmer air wins out and changes over to all rain by late
afternoon. Snow turning to rain/snow mix is likely over the
Pribilof Islands Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Precipitation associated with this low tapers off Wednesday as the
system exits south to the North Pacific. As this system exits
south, another front, from a low near Kamchatka, pushes eastward
to the western Bering and Western Aleutians bringing another round
of light rain Wednesday night into Thursday. This showery activity
moves to the Central Aleutians by Thursday afternoon and evening
as a ridge moves eastward over the Pribilof Island and eastern
Bering by then. There are indications that a stronger and warmer
system will move near the western Bering and Western Aleutians by
Friday.

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Slight change from previous discussion... A fairly stagnant
weather pattern continues for the long term forecast period as a
blocking upper level ridge over Canada keeps the mean trough axis
over western mainland Alaska. Temperatures will gradually cool
with northerly flow aloft, especially over Southwest Alaska.
Surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska will bring in rounds of
precipitation to Southcentral, but the majority of accumulation
will stay coastal. Gap winds on the backside of the Gulf lows will
increase through the Alaska Peninsula Thursday and Friday while
the rest of Southwest stays relatively quiet.

There are signals of a strong low pressure system sweeping a
front across the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend
and into early next week. Enhanced rain and gale to storm force
wind gusts are possible as the front moves over the region, but
the exact storm track as it moves east is uncertain at this time.
This is something we will continue to keep an eye on going as the
week progresses.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mostly VFR conditions with light winds are expected. A weak
shortwave moving overhead this evening and then again tomorrow may
produce some light snow showers and temporary MVFR conditions. A
more potent shortwave rounding the base of the trough late Tuesday
may produce more pronounced snow showers and MVFR to IFR
conditions.

&&


$$