763
FXAK69 PAFG 261435
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Arctic Ocean is bringing strong northeast
winds this morning to the Interior and West Coast of Alaska. As a
weak low pressure rotates in the northern Gulf of Alaska this
afternoon, these winds will continue to strengthen. Temperatures
will remain seasonable across Northern Alaska until we see a push
of tropical moisture by the end of the week. With this push of
moisture, there will be a return of stormy weather to the West
Coast and Western Interior this weekend. These conditions will
make there way into the Eastern Interior by the middle of next
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Seaonable temperatures will continue as daytime highs will be in
  the single digits, while overnight lows are in the single digits
  below 0. These will continue until Friday when we will see
  start to see a warm-up from a low in the Gulf.

- Northeasterly winds are picking up along the Dalton Highway
  Summits and Yukon Flats. The strongest winds will be along the
  Dalton Highway, and they will gust up to 40 mph. These winds
  could cause areas of blowing snow along the Dalton Highway,
  impacting visibility at times.

- The Tanana Valley Jet has been quicker to strengthen than
  forecasted. The strongest winds will be at Delta Junction with
  winds up to 50 mph through tomorrow night. The Tanana Valley
  Jet has been making it to Nenana this morning, but winds should
  remain less than 35 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
  we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
  pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
  inversion that develops.

- East-Northeast winds are ramping up this morning across the West
  Coast. Generally these winds will be 30 to 40 mph across much of
  the West Coast, however communities that typically see stronger
  winds from the east-northeast will see stronger winds. These
  stronger winds are expected to begin to weaken tomorrow evening.

- This afternoon we will see snow showers begin to arrive on the
  Lower Yukon and Southern Seward Peninsula. These showers today
  will favor southeasterly aspects of terrain, before becoming
  more widespread across the region early tomorrow morning.
- With the strong winds and snow showers tomorrow, we could see
   pockets of reduced visibility.

- Through Friday afternoon we are anticipating 1" to 3" of
  snowfall across the Y-K Delta, Southern Seward Peninsula, and
  Lower Yukon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and patchy fog is continuing across the North Slope
  this morning with the exception of Utqiagvik. High pressure to
  the north should help to scatter out these clouds today.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near normal with low
  temperatures in the single digits below 0 on the Arctic Coast,
  and lows in the teens below 0 on the Plains. A 10 to 15 degree
  warm-up is expected Friday night and continue through the
  weekend.

- Easterly winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible across the Arctic
  Coastline. The chances for these winds will continue until
  Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure is continuing to influence most of Northern Alaska,
bringing east-northeasterly winds, seasonable temperatures, and
generally clear skies. This afternoon the start to the pattern
shift is expected, as an area of low pressure in the Southern
Bering begins to rotate shortwaves into Western Alaska. These
shortwaves are not connected to the main moisture plume that we
are expecting by Sunday. Any snow associated with these
shortwaves will be light, but with the strongs winds that will
still be in the Y-K Delta and the Southern Seward Peninsula we
could see areas of reduced visibility. Convective allowing models
are hinting at the possibility of snow squalls imbedded, however
with low snow ratios and qpf it does not seem likely that we will
see any. Friday afternoon we will see our first push of warmer air
aloft as an upper-level trough moves into Mainland Alaska. This
trough will not bring moisture with it, so chances are low with
this feature. As we move into the extended forecast on Saturday
there is better model agreement compared to a few model runs ago.
There are still stark differences on the fine details of the
forecast, but the picture is being painted. These model solutions
will be discussed below in the Extended Forecast section.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As we look towards Saturday night there will be low pressure move
into the Gulf of Alaska. This low will send a warm front into the
Interior that will bring very warm 850 mb temperatures and
additional moisture. By Monday afternoon the ECMWF has
850 mb temperatures approaching freezing. This would reflect at
the surface to temperatures in the upper 30s. Now the ECMWF and
GFS have differing solutions with how warm it could get. There is
an arctic cold front that will drop out of the Chuckchi Sea and
into the Interior sometime early next week. The GFS is much
quicker with this feature which limits how much warm air can get
into the Interior, keeping temperatures below freezing. Depending
on which solution pans out will dictate the precipitation type,
the GFS solution would be all snow across Northern Alaska, while
the ECMWF solution introduces freezing rain and rain potentials
across the Southern Interior.

Comparing model precipitation we see vastly different solutions.
The GFS is much drier than the ECMWF/GEM due to the GFS
downsloping most of the moisture. With the GFS most areas in the
Interior and West Coast would see light snow with the initial push
of the warm front on Saturday night, but will then be dry until a
deformation band forms up Tuesday night bringing heavy snow
potential along that band. While the ECMWF/GEM brings widespread
precipitation across the Interior starting Monday and continuing
through the week. With the ECMWF/GEM being warm and introducing
temperatures above freezing there is the potential to see
widespread areas of freezing precipiation or rain in the Southern
Interior. Models continue to struggle with this pattern, and
getting the details correct, but there is still ample concern for
impactful weather in the Southern Interior and Southwest Coast
come next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-812-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-806-810-850-853-854-
     856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807>809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Dennis