135
FXAK69 PAFG 082307
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few snow showers will be possible over portions of the
Central/Eastern Brooks range and Interior, White Mtns, as well as
across the Yukon Flats through tonight. There will also be some snow
possible for portions of the Tanana Valley, and mainly from Northway
up to Eagle, through this evening. These snow showers will continue
to taper off and become more isolated going into tomorrow. Clearing
skies will also lead to the onset of much colder temperatures, with
the coldest air mass of the season settling in over the region. Some
strong and gusty winds just off shore along the YK Delta will
continue to diminish tonight, with some snow moving in later this
evening and then this will expand into the Seward Peninsula. Not
expecting much in the way of new snowfall accumulations with this.
Most of the accumulating snow is expected to be over the eastern
North Slope through tomorrow. The cooling and drying pattern will
continue going into the mid part of next week, then  there will be a
an increasing chance of snow, while colder temperatures continue to
infiltrate the mainland into the following weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread light snow continues across the Interior today,
  shifting east to along the Alcan Border for Sunday. Additional
  snow accumulations through Sunday around 1-3".

- Cloudy skies today will give way to clearer skies tonight into
  Sunday, supporting colder temperatures and areas of dense fog as
  conditions turn dry to start the work week.

- Highs this weekend in the teens and 20s with lows in the single
  digits and teens. Lows below zero possible Sunday morning.

- Temperatures trend colder next week, with highs dropping to the
  single digits and teens with lows mostly in the single digits
  below zero. Coldest spots especially by midweek see highs
  struggle to get above zero with lows reaching the double digits
  below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions this morning will give way to a
  frontal boundary lifting northeast into Southwest Alaska later
  today into Sunday with strong winds and snow.

- E/SE winds increase along the West Coast and St. Lawrence
  Island will continue into tonight with up to Gale Force to low
  end Storm Force winds expected offshore. Elevated water levels
  above the normal high tide line across the West Coast, highest
  around the Yukon Delta.

- Snow chances steadily increase for St. Lawrence Island and the
  Yukon Delta tonight, shifting north towards the Seward Peninsula
  for late Sunday into Monday as the Northwest Coast remains
  predominantly dry.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
  and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
  Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
  Temperatures trend colder overall early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Widespread light snow continues across the Central/Eastern
  Brooks Range north to the Eastern Arctic Coast, shifting
  northeast to along the Alcan Border and Arctic Coast Sunday into
  Monday. Additional snow accumulations through Monday around
  1-3", locally higher out towards Kaktovik.

- Snow chances along the Alcan Border and Eastern Arctic Coast
  shift to being confined to the coast Monday into Tuesday as snow
  chances diminish by midweek as predominantly dry conditions
  prevail.

- Highs in the teens and 20s across the North Slope and single
  digits and teens in the Brooks Range, with lows in single digits
  and teens to below zero in the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains.
  Temperatures trend colder early next week. Coldest spots
  especially by midweek seeing highs struggle to get above zero
  with lows reaching the double digits below zero.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Tuesday.
Very light and off snow showers will still be possible through
tomorrow under and area of weak troughing, mainly over the eastern
half of the state. There is also a weak mesolow currently moving
over the White Mtns. This will likely enhance some of the show
showers moving out over into the Yukon Flats as it tracks to the NE.
Overall, higher pressure is going to dominate the mainland
throughout this period in the forecast, as the areas of low pressure
track well south of the region. There is also going to be colder air
advection coming in from the north over the Beaufort Sea, and this
colder air mass settling in, along with clearing and drying
conditions, will lead to a cooldown and temperatures dropping off to
closer to where they should be for this time of year within the
Interior, with generally teens for highs and singles for lows. There
will also be some locations within the Brooks Range and North
Slope/Arctic Plains. Some of these locations could even see
temperatures dropping down into the double digits below zero. The
overall trend is to continue to dry out and get colder as skies
continue to clear going into the early part of next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday night through next Saturday.
As an area of high pressure sets in over the Chukchi Sea, it is
going to allow for much colder and drier air to be advected in from
the north, which will draw in the coldest air mass so far for this
season. This will allow for there to be many locations within the
Mainland, and especially for portions of the western Interior and
Arctic Plains to experience sub-zero temperatures, even for highs,
especially by Wednesday. As conditions look to remain fairly clear
and dry, the overall cooling trend will continue into the following
weekend. Some locations within the Yukon Flats will also have sub-
zero temperatures for highs towards the end of next week. Ensembles
have continued to show that the majority of passing lows will remain
far enough for there to be very little to no impact in terms of
precipitation and wind for the southern portions of the CWA, however,
some of the deterministic models are also alluding to a possible
major shortwave trough moving up into the Bering Sea going into the
following weekend, which may help to spread more moisture into the
YK Delta, and over the mainland with a better probability of snow.
Increasing PWATs also hint at this, with generally a better chance
of snow showers if this verifies.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-808>812-852-855-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Stewey