505
FXAK69 PAFG 181542
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad trough over the Bering Sea with an associated area of low
pressure has continued to support a series of low pressure systems
moving into Western Alaska, with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast, Western Interior,
Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic Coast. An overlap of
gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times, although this threat is diminishing as warmer
air is being advected in from the south and not allow for as much in
the way of blowing snow. However, these conditions are still
possible, and Winter Storm Warnings, as well as Winter Weather
Advisories have remained in place for the Yukon Delta north through
the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds and
snow/blowing snow through tomorrow. A rain/snow mix will be possible
across southern portions of the West Coast as warmer temperatures
build in.

Across the Central/Eastern Interior, conditions have and will
continue to remain drier overall with more isolated to scattered
snow chances, as temperatures also see a warming trend. Best chances
for more moderate snow in this corridor will remain confined to
higher elevations and in the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.

Snow chances are expected to continue across Northern Alaska through
the rest of the week with lessening chances, as a series of low
pressure systems and fronts in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska
continue to support moisture transport into our region, but then
going into the weekend there has been increasing confidence of a
strong area of high pressure building in over Alaska starting early
next week, supporting cooler and drier conditions returning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
  snow showers possible through the weekend.

- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Interior this
  week, with highs reaching back into the single digits and teens
  above zero and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
  week as snow chances diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An active weather pattern continues through tomorrow across
  Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
  gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
  the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
  blizzard conditions are possible at times.

- Strongest wind gusts through Wednesday night will peak around
  30 to 50 mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island
  where gusts up to 60 mph are expected. A secondary system will
  be moving in tomorrow, and reinforcing chances for more snow.

- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
  southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
  in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
  particularly the southern coastlines.

- Temperatures will begin to steadily drop off beginning this
  upcoming weekend and going into the early part of next week, as
  a cooler and drier pattern sets in.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
  continue to support widespread snow moving into the
  Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
  Arctic Coast through tomorrow, and then chances of snow will
  gradually taper off by later in the week into the weekend and
  beyond.

- Gusty winds are expected today into tomorrow across higher
  elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas of blowing snow
  and significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
  Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.

- Temperatures will continue to see a warming trend overall this
  week, with highs by Wednesday reaching back into the teens and
  20s above zero and lows in the single digits and teens, but then
  begin to drop off this upcoming weekend into early next week as
  a much colder and drier pattern establishes itself over the
  region.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday.
In the short term (24 hours), the models have done a fairly good job
with resolving the position and propagation the the first associated
low located nearly over St. Lawrence Island continuing to fill and
becoming absorbed back into the longwave trough towards the
northwest, however, with respect to the secondary low developing in
its wake while strengthening as it absorbs the energy from the first
low and eventually begins to transition into the Gulf of Alaska,
models have shown a lot more discontinuity, especially with the GFS.
Because of this, there has been some uncertainty with just how much
moisture and southerly flow will be expanded northward across
portions of the Interior and Upper Tanana, by later in the week.
There will likely be some gap wind flow winds with this secondary
low as it moves in over the Gulf, although there is not a tight
enough pressure gradient to be too concerned at this time for winds
to reach criteria, although this will continued to be evaluated in
the upcoming days.

In terms of the first area of low pressure, there has been some
reports of unknown precip at Unalakleet, with temps hovering right
around and just over the freezing mark, or just barely above. This
will continue to be possible today, with rain possibly mixing with
snow for some of the coastal locations within the Norton Sound,
otherwise the majority of precip should be in the form of snow. For
some of the higher elevations within the Seward Peninsula, there
could be a few areas receiving as much as 2 feet of snow through
tomorrow. Otherwise, generally additional amounts 6 to 9 inches can
be expected for most of the southern facing slopes, and generally 3
to 6 inches for the lower elevations within the Y-D Delta, through
tomorrow. There may also be some localized areas of blizzard
conditions possible at times, although the warming of the airmass
with the more southerly flow in place will help to mitigate this
potential threat. Strong and gusty winds are still jamming just off
the northern coast of St. Lawrence Island and towards Savoonga, with
occasional gusts up to 50 mph. These winds are expected to weaken,
and conditions will improve tonight going into tomorrow and the low
continues to fill and move northeast.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday night through next Monday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing a rather strong ridge
moving up from the Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea, which is going
to allow for a more stable and much colder pattern beginning this
upcoming weekend and going into early next week. Chances of snow
will remain mostly confined over the Upper Tanana Valley, and Yukon
Flats along the Alcan Border, as well as portions of the eastern
Interior, otherwise, most of the region is expected to remain mostly
dry with colder temperatures setting in over the Mainland under a
very strong longwave ridge that will continue to build in over the
state going into the early part of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-816-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-817-852-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-850-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-856>858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$