824
FXAK69 PAFG 040026
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will continue to be possible for some of the areas over
the North Slope, and Interior, as the overall pattern remains
unsettled with lower pressure overhead. There have also been some
areas with lower ceilings and patchy fog. Temperatures will continue
to gradually cool off throughout the week as there will be more
colder air moving down with the troughing to the east over Canada. A
potentially more impactful system will bring some increased gap flow
winds for the passes within bouts of snow moving over the region and
providing more chances of snowfall, especially for portions of the
Interior, White Mtns, Yukon Flats, and Kuskokwim River Valley, where
there could be 6" or more through the weekend, as well as for the
higher terrain. Otherwise, generally amounts of 1-3" can be
expected. There will continue to be some strong and gusty winds
along portions of the eastern North Slope through tomorrow evening,
and then will begin to weaken thereafter. Colder air will continue
to infiltrate the region, allowing for a gradual cooling to take
place, with portions of the North Slope and Arctic Plains likely
having highs in the singles, or even below zero, by this weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Better snow chances return Wednesday night into the weekend.
  While there is uncertainty, most areas have a chance for at
  least an inch. With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, some
  areas could see up to six inches over a multi-day period. Higher
  amounts of possibly 6 inches or more are expected for the
  Dalton Hwy passes and within portions of the Yukon Flats, as
  well as the White Mtns and eastern Brooks Range (especially for
  the southeastern-facing slopes).

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually cool off each day
  this week with highs mainly in the 20s and lows mainly in the
  teens for the beginning of the week, then highs generally in the
  teens by the second half of the week. Expected breaks in clouds
  in southeastern areas could yield lows in the single digits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered ocean effect snow showers will be possible for the
  northeast areas this evening and along the coastal areas of the
  Norton Sound, and then increase across the Seward and Lisburne
  Peninsulas tomorrow.

- With the exception of parts of the Lower Yukon Valley, an
  additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible through tomorrow
  morning for most of the Western Interior and the Bering Sea
  coastline. A few inches of snow will be possible across most of
  Western Alaska from Wednesday through Friday. Higher amounts
  will also be possible later this week through the weekend within
  the Kuskokwim River Valley.

- Highs near 30 with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are expected for
  St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs cool from
  the upper 20s today into the mid teens by Friday, with lows
  falling from near 20 into the single digits. The West Coast will
  see highs in mid/upper 20s and lows in the low 20s/high teens.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Easterly winds continue across the Arctic coast, with the
  highest gusts today being east of Utqiagvik up to 45 mph. These
  winds will shift toward the eastern Arctic coast by tomorrow.
  There will also be some blowing snow, with restricted
  visibilities getting down to a quarter of a mile at times.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries with little
  accumulation will be possible through the rest of today, mostly
  near Utqiagvik and Point Hope. 1-2 inches of snow, perhaps more
  with high snow ratios, will be possible in the western two-
  thirds of the North Slope from Wednesday through Saturday. Snow
  showers will increase in coverage across the Arctic Plains
  beginning Wednesday, with more significant snowfall amounts
  expected towards the end of the week.

- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures continue through
  early this week. A colder air mass drops highs into the teens
  and single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast,
  with lows in the single digits or lower by Wednesday into late
  week. Portions of the Arctic Plains could have highs below zero
  by the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An upper level low located over the Chukchi Sea is going to
propagate up towards the north, along with an area of strengthening
high pressure to the northeast over the Beaufort Sea, which is
going to allow for a tighter gradient along the eastern shores of
the North Slope, with some stronger winds over the waters just
offshore, which may reach gale strength tonight through tomorrow.
Meanwhile, there will also be a more significant major shortwave
trough moving up into the Gulf of Alaska. This low pressure system
will continue to advance northeastward going into Wednesday, with an
associated frontal boundary and gap flow winds for the Alaska Range
initially, and then increasing moisture advected up from the south
will bring about increasing chances of snow across the portions of
the Interior. There will also be a minor shortwave moving across the
northern half of the state, which will result in an increasing
probability for the West Coast/Arctic Plains as well beginning
tomorrow. Depending on the evolution of this major shortwave trough,
there could be some areas of more impactful snow accumulations,
which the ECWMF EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) continues to highlight
an area around the Kuskokwim River Valley, as well as the Yukon
Flats/White Mtns, due to higher snowfall amounts. Going into the
weekend, there will be another approaching low pressure system into
the Bering Sea, and this could also help to reinforce more moisture
over the region and aid in some additional snowfall for the
portions of the West Coast, and Western Interior.

&&

HYDROLOGY... No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across
the area and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... By Thursday, most of the moisture
associated with the large area of low pressure will move northward
and into the Alaska Range, as well as into the Southeastern
Interior. These fronts are expected to bring widespread snowfall
across the state, with similar amounts to the snowfall seen late
last week. This snowfall is expected to develop in a colder pattern
and thus fluffier, less dense snowfall is expected. There is
currently low confidence in snowfall amounts, but areas of up to 6
inches is possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in the
White Mountains and other more elevated areas. Another low moves
east along the Aleutians early next week which will likely bring
additional snow and gusty winds to the West Coast and parts of the
Western Interior.

$$

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813>815-859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-859-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stewey