008
FXAK69 PAFG 131219
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Snow is falling this morning along the Parks Highway
near Denali Park where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect. Light snow is also falling along the western North Slope.
Elsewhere, quiet weather prevails. The Interior and West Coast
will see a mix of sun and clouds this weekend with a few scattered
showers before warming in the Interior early next week. Mostly
cloudy conditions are expected on the North Slope.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Denali Borough for
  areas along the Parks Highway from Healy to Cantwell and for the
  Denali Park Road. Snow has accumulated overnight and will
  continue to fall this morning, but struggle to accumulate after
  sunrise. Total accumulations less than 3 inches expected.

- Scattered showers will continue across the Interior through the
  weekend as moist, southerly flow is to continue. There is a
  slight chance of a thunderstorm across the Upper Tanana Valley
  this afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures persist through the weekend with highs in
  the 40s and 50s, and overnight lows in the 30s. Warming into the
  50s and 60s is expected early next week.

- Northerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes gusting to 25
  mph likely on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Generally drier weather with a mix of sun and clouds along the
  coast, with low chance (20-40%) of showers this weekend.

- Below normal temperatures overspread the area today, and
  continue through the weekend with highs in the 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow persists into Saturday along the northwest coast and
  western Brooks Range. Additional accumulations of 2 inches or
  less.

- Low chances (10-30%) of rain and snow across portions of the
  central Brooks Range/North Slope towards the Arctic coast this
  weekend.

- High temperatures near 40 along the coast and in the low to mid
  30s in the Brooks Range with lows around 30 along the coast and
  in the 20s in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A broad trough over Western
Alaska and the Bering Sea will persist through the weekend with
southerly flow aloft over the central and eastern Interior.
Shortwaves moving through the southerly flow will bring showers,
especially along south facing slopes of the Brooks Range and
Yukon-Tanana Uplands. A 532 decameter 500 mb low over Wainwright
is filling as it moves north to 325 miles north of Utqiagvik by
early Tuesday morning. A vertically stacked 536 decameter low
will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. An atmospheric river
along the east side of this feature will bring moisture from the
tropics to SE Alaska Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some
of this moisture will move into the eastern Interior by the middle
of next week as that low moves to Prince William Sound and
weakens.

At the surface, the low over Wainwright is reflected as a 1005 mb
low currently and will continue to weaken with the feature aloft.
The low moving into the Gulf of Alaska looks to have a minimum
central pressure of around 986 mb Sunday afternoon.

Models are in good overall agreement on the pattern and the
forecast. The only weather of impact that is expected over the
next 3 days is the ongoing snow along the Parks Highway in Denali
Borough that is covered with a Winter Weather Advisory, and
periods of gap winds through Alaska Range passes that look to
remain sub-Advisory level at this time. There is a higher
probability of advisory level gap winds toward the Thursday-
Friday timeframe, continuing into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm along
the Alcan Border from Eagle south to the Alaska Range this
afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the area. Otherwise, no
thunderstorms are expected through Monday. High temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 40s across most of the Interior, but
will approach 60 across the Upper Tanana Valley today and remain
in the mid 50s to low 60s through the week. RHs remain 40% or
higher.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Deterministic models begin to differ
significantly by Thursday, seemingly struggling to figure out what
happens after the tropical moisture exits the area. ECMWF
solutions have been more impactful over the last few runs,
bringing additional tropical moisture into mainland Alaska while
the GFS keeps the moisture moving toward the panhandle. Strong
southerly flow in the ECMWF solutions would likely downslope much
of the Interior out of precipitation, but high heights and warmer
temperatures would likely result in heavy rain along the south
slopes of the Alaska Range late next week. This is something we
will need to keep an eye on. With Western Alaska remaining in a
trough, conditions there look to be drier and less windy than
normal. Near normal temperatures likely across the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847-848.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Chriest