370
FXAK69 PAFG 240024
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of snow showers and/or flurries will be transitioning over
the eastern Interior through this evening, and may allow for an
additional amount of 0.5-1" inch (or locally more). This will all
continue to taper off with clearing skies as high pressure
conditions begin to set in through the mid part of the week. It will
remain fairly dry and colder through the end of the week, with some
locations within the North slope and Brooks Range possibly getting
down into the -30s overnight by Wednesday. Going into the following
weekend, the region will begin to see a return of more mild
temperatures with an increased chance of snow, as a series of storm
systems begin to propagate up from the southwest and into the Gulf
of Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The steadier snowfall over the Eastern Interior rapidly
  diminishes through this afternoon. Storm total snow amounts from
  Snotel observations as of 12AM Sunday listed below.
 - White Mountains to Upper Chena Dome- 5 to 10 inches.
 - Fairbanks Area- 3 to 5 inches.
 - Nenana to Delta- 1 to 2 inches.
 - Upper Tanana Valley east of Delta- 1 inch or less.
- Expect possibly 0.5-1" (or locally higher) of additional
  snowfall within the Fairbanks area and White Mountains through
  this evening as another band of snow is currently moving over
  the area from north to south.

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
  Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits and
  lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.

- Clouds will continue to clear going into tomorrow and through
  the mid part of the week. Temperatures decrease further in
  valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
  inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds begin tomorrow and last through much
  of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow
  are possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton,
  Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.

- There will be a transition to a warmer and wetter period going
  into the following weekend, with an increase in the chance of
  snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
  Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the weekend
  to the teens and single digits for highs tomorrow. Western
  Interior Valley lows fall to the negative single digits
  overnight and into tomorrow morning.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
  tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to
  30 mph by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
  and in the Brooks Range through this evening. Additional snow
  accumulations will be around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of
  spots near 4 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range and near
  Kaktovik.

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
  Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits today, to the
  single digits to near 0 tomorrow along the coast. In the Brooks
  Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative teens and
  possibly the negative 20s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For tonight through Wednesday.
A weak mid-level shortwave is continuing to transition over portions
of the Interior around the Fairbanks area through this evening, the
actual area of low pressure associated with this feature is located
over Canada, east of the Yukon Flats. This is continuing to
transition south and will allow for possibly another 0.5-1" (or
locally higher) in and around the Fairbanks area, and within the
White Mountains throughout the remainder of this evening. Otherwise,
with the exception of some light snow showers within portions of the
western Interior, and along the Arctic Coast due to onshore
northeasterly flow, most areas are beginning to clear out as higher
pressure begins to set in across the region. This will continue
going into the mid-half of the week as a ridge becomes established
over the Chuckchi Sea, and then transitions over into the Beaufort
Sea and enhances northerly flow. As the Mainland continues to dry
out under high pressure conditions, there will be notably colder
temperatures felt across most areas, with much of the Interior
returning back to highs in the singles by tomorrow.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday night through next Sunday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing that there will be a large
expansive area of low pressure moving in over the Aleutians by later
this week and going into the weekend. While there still remains to
be some uncertainty at this time, and deterministic models have
continued to struggle with being consistent in terms of the
progression of some of the associated major shortwaves embedded with
this feature. There is, however, agreeance with the ensembles
showing that this will tap into moisture streaming up from 20N
(displaying the characteristics of an atmospheric river), which may
prove to be impactful for the region, depending on the track.
Because there is an ample amount of moisture, and warm air being
advected up with this, there could be some possible icing issues
within portions of the southern Interior and within the Tanana River
Valley. This will all be depended on the tracks of these systems
coming up into the Bering Strait through the following weekend,
although at this time they are too inconsistent to be considered
reliable and will need to evaluated in the upcoming days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>806-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stewey