663
FXAK69 PAFG 250001
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will continue to influence the Eastern Interior
through tomorrow and keep the chance of light snow and/or flurries
going through then, with some areas receiving additional snowfall of
up to an inch possible. As high pressure begins to build in over the
Chuckchi Sea and further strengthens as it moves eastward into the
Beaufort Sea, it will bring about blustery, colder, and drier
conditions to much of Northern Alaska by Wednesday, and eventually
the colder air will continue to infiltrate the Interior as well.
Stronger winds will begin to blow tomorrow night into much of the
rest of the week, and last through much of the week. With this,
there could be areas of reduced visibilities due to blowing snow are
possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott,
and Steese Highway Summits. This weekend we are anticipating a
pattern shift, as another round of storms move into the region, and
this will continue into early next week. These storms will bring
warmer temperatures and chances for heavy precipitation across
Northern Alaska. There could also be a wintry mix, and/or a
rain/snow mix for portions of the lower elevations within the Upper
Tanana Valley and Interior as much warmer temperatures are advected
up from the south. If this occurs, it could make travel tricky due
to icy road conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats, Dalton Highway Summits,
and the White Mountains this evening into tomorrow. Accumulations
would be from a dusting to an inch. Fairbanks could see some
flurries tomorrow, but confidence is not high on accumulating snow.

- Colder and drier conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Nighttime temperatures will be in the single digits to teens below
zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week. Temperatures
decrease further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop. Temperatures and moisture will begin
to increase this upcoming weekend with an increasing chance of
precipitation going into the early part of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds tomorrow night, and last through much
of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow are
possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott,
and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather statement has
been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tomorrow night across the
Tanana Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as
Delta Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going into
Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when we
see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the inversion
that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30
mph by Wednesday.

- Wednesday night to Thursday evening there is a chance to see snow
showers in the Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow showers
would be up to 2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins to move
into the area, these snow showers could turn into a rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow will continue across the Eastern Arctic
Coastline through tonight, and then continue to taper off going into
tomorrow morning.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal with lows
near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will develop this afternoon
as a high pressure moves east across the Arctic Ocean. These winds
will be 20 to 30 mph, and will hang around for the rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A minor shortwave is transitioning over the Yukon Flats, with a weak
area of low pressure also positioned over the Upper Tanana Valley,
which has been providing some very light snow showers and/or
flurries, across portions of the eastern Interior and along the
AlCan border near Eagle. This weak low/trough is continuing to fill,
with a lessening chance of snow going into tonight. Otherwise,
widespread dry and colder conditions exist across most of the region
under increasing high pressure conditions. As the ridge continues to
strengthen over the Chukchi Sea and then transitions eastward over
into the Beaufort Sea by Wednesday, it is going to allow for the
colder air to continue to infiltrate the region, with some locations
getting down into the -20s overnight by tomorrow night within the
Brooks Range. This cold air and drier pattern will persist
throughout the rest of the work week until we transition into a
warmer and wetter pattern for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have continued to show a strong signal of a broad area of
troughing moving up into Bering Sea, with multiple major shortwaves
propagating up towards southwestern Alaska. The upper level jet with
this feature will be tapping into moisture getting advected up from
around 20N, which is producing very high PWAT values since it is
derived from subtropical moisture, and thus is indicating a much
wetter and more mild shift in the pattern going into this upcoming
weekend. Depending on the track of these associated waves, this
could prove to be more impactful for our area if these lows take
more of a westerly track into the Bering Sea, whereas a track
further east into the Gulf of Alaska will likely for the Interior to
get downsloped by the Alaska Range, with less in the way of
precipitation. This could be significant if these lows do take more
of the westerly track, and allow more moisture to be advected up
across the Interior. This will continue to be evaluated in the
upcoming days.

Deterministic models have been struggling with respect to resolving
some of the embedded lows and associated shortwaves moving up from
the southwest and into the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska for this
upcoming weekend. The GFS has more or less been the outlier, and has
been positioning the low further north and west into the Bering Sea
come early Sunday morning than the other models. However, the latest
ECMWF model run does appear to be taking the track of the major
shortwave moving up into the Bering Sea this weekend on Saturday to
have more of westerly track now than previous models. This could
definitely be impactful if there is enough warmer air (as models
indicate temperatures over freezing at the 850 mb level within the
southerly flow ahead of the frontal boundary associated with this
system that will be moving in over the region), which may lead to
potential icing concerns for some of the lower elevations. This
southerly flow will also keep conditions more moist, with chances of
snow increasing across all of Alaska going into the early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-850-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Stewey