707
FXAK69 PAFG 231136
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As snow in the Eastern Interior diminishes early Sunday, colder
and drier conditions take over from the west. Winds shift easterly
and increase Sunday night into Monday across the Interior and West
Coast. These colder, drier conditions last through Thursday
before warmer, wetter weather returns for late this week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The steadier snowfall over the Eastern Interior rapidly
  diminishes through early Sunday. Storm total snow amounts from
  Snotel observations as of 12AM Sunday listed below.
 - White Mountains to Upper Chena Dome- 5 to 10 inches.
 - Fairbanks Area- 3 to 5 inches.
 - Nenana to Delta- 1 to 2 inches.
 - Upper Tanana Valley east of Delta- 1 inch or less.

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
   and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
  further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
  temperature inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through much of the week.
  Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow are possible as
  are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott, and
  Steese Highway Summits

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
   weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valley lows fall to the negative single
   digits late Sunday into Monday.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
  Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
  20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
  and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
  around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
  the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
   digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
   teens and possibly the negative 20s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Sunday morning through Tuesday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Sunday morning, a trough
stretches through the Eastern Interior to a 520 decameter upper
level low in the Gulf of Alaska and a ridge in the Bering Sea is
about to be severed from the south to become a 546 decameter upper
level high near the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 505 decameter upper
level low near the Western Aleutians continues east through Sunday
and Monday, cutting off the ridge and pushing the Chukotsk high
further north and east. This high combines with an existing weaker
high pressure over the North Slope and builds to a 552 decameter
high in the Chukchi Sea by Monday evening. As this high builds the
two lows to the south both weaken. The Gulf of Alaska low moves
further east allowing higher surface pressure to build further
into the Southeastern Interior. As this higher pressure builds
we`ll expect colder, drier conditions to take hold. The low near
the Aleutians stalls south of the Aleutians near 170W and 50N. The
building high and stalled low will allow for gusty easterly to
northeasterly winds across the West Coast to set up Sunday night
into Monday and continue through much of the week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period on Wednesday, a
strong Arctic high around 552 decameters sits in the Arctic Ocean
west of Point Barrow and a weakening 518 decameter low remains
stalled near 170W and 50N. Another low is moving in from the
Northwestern Pacific and will phase with the stalled low Thursday
into Friday. This will allow this new low to rapidly strengthen
and expand allowing it to tap into moisture from as far south as
20N. A strong atmospheric river event is expected to impact
Alaska Friday into the weekend.

Model confidence is still low on how exactly these two systems
phase though. That would then determine how the resultant low and
atmospheric river evolve and move. Run to run consistency over
the last few days has been poor with the ensemble means in the
latest 00Z run pulling significantly further north than the 12Z or
00Z runs from yesterday. There is additionally some notable
differences in the intensity of the event between forecast models
and runs. Regardless of its exact placement, the presence of the
feature alone gives high confidence in a significantly warmer and
wetter pattern for Friday through the weekend. Wintry mix and
areas of rain are possible as well as high temperatures reaching
above freezing. Where exactly these conditions develop is still
uncertain however.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804-805-807-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stokes