498
FXAK69 PAFG 180035
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad upper level troughing in the Bering Sea will continue to
support a series of low pressure systems moving into Western
Alaska through midweek, with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast, Western Interior,
Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic Coast. An overlap of
gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place for the Yukon Delta north through the
Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds and
snow/blowing snow through Wednesday. A rain/snow mix will be
possible across southern portions of the West Coast as warmer
temperatures build in.

Across the Central/Eastern Interior, conditions will remain drier
overall with more isolated to scattered snow chances, as
temperatures also see a warming trend. Best chances for more
moderate snow in this corridor will remain confined to higher
elevations and in the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.

Snow chances are expected to continue across Northern Alaska
through the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems and
fronts in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska continue to support
moisture transport into our region. Looking ahead, increasing
confidence supports a ridge of high pressure building in over
Alaska starting early next week, supporting cooler and drier
conditions returning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
  snow showers possible through the weekend.

- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Interior this
  week, with highs reaching back into the single digits and teens
  above zero and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
  week as snow chances diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An active weather pattern continues through midweek across
  Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
  gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
  the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
  blizzard conditions are possible at times.

- Strongest wind gusts through Wednesday night will peak around
  30-50 mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where
  gusts up to 60 mph are expected. As the first system moves
  north, conditions may briefly improve ahead of a second system
  moving in Wednesday.

- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
  southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
  in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
  particularly the southern coastlines.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
  continue to support widespread snow moving into the
  Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
  Arctic Coast through Wednesday.

- Gusty winds are expected to continue Tuesday into Wednesday
  across higher elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas
  of blowing snow and significant reductions in visibility at
  times.

- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
  Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.

- Temperatures will continue to see a warming trend overall this
  week, with highs by Wednesday reaching back into the teens and
  20s above zero and lows in the single digits and teens.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 970 mb low just off the
coast of the Yukon Delta slowly tracking northeast, supporting
gusty winds and snow across the West Coast. This system will
continue to lift NE into the Seward Peninsula, as a secondary 970
mb low builds in the Central/Eastern Bering Sea late Tuesday into
Wednesday, continuing to reinforce snow and winds into Western
Alaska. Snowfall accumulations through Wednesday night with this
series of systems will be highest across the West Coast/NW Arctic
Coast, Western Interior, Western and Central Brooks Range, and in
the Alaska Range. Here is where we are expecting a broad 3-6" with
higher totals in that 6-12" range across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and higher elevations of the
Alaska Range/Brooks Range, locally higher across highest elevations.

Wind gusts in this area are expected to be strongest offshore and
at St. Lawrence Island where wind gusts up to 60 mph are
expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak
around 30-50 mph. Due to warm air advection out of the south,
there could also be a few locations for the Southwest Coast and
the Yukon Delta which may have a mix of rain and snow. Here is
where after the intrusion of warm air builds in today, there is
lower confidence on significantly reduced visibilities in blowing
snow, which will continue to be monitored. We have extended the
winter products in effect for the West Coast through Wednesday
night to capture the impacts from that secondary system lifting
north.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass has given
way to warming temperatures through the upcoming week as broad
southerly flow encompasses the state. Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska and Southcentral overnight and earlier today helped to
create a moderate gradient across the Alaska Range, leading to
gusts peaking up to 60 mph through Windy Pass on the Parks Highway
and gusts up to 70 mph on the Richardson Highway north of Isabel
Pass. Snow has built into the Interior southwest to northeast,
with more moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western
Interior and Alaska Range with lighter amounts further east out
towards the Alcan Border. Isolated to scattered snow showers will
continue through this corridor through the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.
Ensemble trends have shown little change with most of the region
being influenced by low pressure. The overall energy from the
broad areas of low pressure is going to move into the Gulf of
Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will
keep the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to
some of the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K
Delta to get a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into
the Gulf, but then transition back to snow with colder air
advection on the backside of this system. The moisture from the
south is going to expand across much of the Mainland towards the
end of the week, and then going into the following weekend, there
are beginning signals which indicate that a ridge could be
building back in towards the end of next weekend and will continue
to lead to a cooling and drying pattern.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-812-816-817-851-854-
     856-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stewey