600
FXAK69 PAFG 140030
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern
Alaska heading into the weekend, with localized areas of fog, low
stratus, and flurries. Isolated snow showers will linger for the
West Coast, Southwest Alaska, and Arctic Coast through Friday as a
low moving west through the Brooks Range merges with a shortwave
today. This setup will support broad northeasterly flow across the
Arctic Plains into the Interior, allowing for temperatures to see
an overall cooling trend heading into the weekend. Coldest areas
will struggle to see highs get above zero with lows in the double
digits below zero, bottoming out around 15 to 30 below zero. Given
a tightening pressure gradient along the Northwest Arctic Coast
today into Friday, strong winds are expected out towards Cape
Lisburne and Point Hope where wind gusts up to 50 mph are
expected. Looking ahead, increasing confidence supports a more
active pattern as a series of storms building into the Bering Sea
work to bring increased winds, warmer temperatures, and
precipitation chances starting this weekend into early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
  finish out the week, with localized areas of fog and flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
  single and double digits below zero through the weekend.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
  scattered snow chances return. Southerly winds are expected to
  ramp up through Alaska Range passes Sunday into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
  through Saturday morning, with localized areas of fog and
  flurries.

- Highs in the single and digits and teens to teens and 20s along
  the southern coast, with lows in the single digits above and
  below zero inland to single digits and teens along the coast.
  Coldest spots reaching the double digits below zero inland.

- Temperatures trend colder overall through the weekend, ahead of
  southerly flow returning Sunday into Monday as a series of
  storms in the Bering Sea shift north.

- The first system is expected to lift north Saturday into Sunday
  with gusty winds and snow chances across the West Coast.
  Strongest winds are expected across the Yukon Delta and St.
  Lawrence Island with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
  scattered snow chances return.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
  Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
  showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
  strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope,
  particularly around the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 50
  mph are expected.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero in the Brooks
  Range to single digits and teens along the coast, with lows in
  the single digits above and below zero to double digits below
  zero across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
  isolated to scattered snow chances return across to much of the
  North Slope and Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds
over Northern Alaska as a cold and dry pattern continues overall.
A low over the Western Brooks Range will continue to move W/SW
towards the Seward Peninsula heading into Friday, as an arctic
high works slightly south towards the Northwest Arctic Coast.
Given this setup, northeast flow will prevail region wide,
allowing for temperatures to see a broad cooling trend heading
into the weekend. With the pressure gradient along the West/Arctic
Coast increasing today into Friday, breezy northeast winds will
persist in these corridors. Strongest winds are expected to be
around the Lisburne Peninsula where wind gusts up to 50 mph will
remain possible through the weekend. Across the Interior, cold and
dry conditions will continue to prevail with localized areas of
low stratus and fog leading to flurries at times. As a colder
airmass settles in across Northern Alaska heading into the start
of the weekend, more widespread subzero temperatures are expected
with coldest areas struggling to see highs above zero as lows drop
to the double digits below zero.

Further south, a series of lows will move east through the
Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska Friday into Saturday as a more
broad low settles into the Central/Western Bering Sea. As a ridge
of high pressure amplifies on the back side of these lows in the
Gulf, this will allow for a stronger low to lift northeast through
the Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea late Saturday into
Sunday. This will work to create a stronger pressure gradient
along the West Coast, leading to an increase in winds broadly with
strongest winds expected in the Yukon Delta and out on St.
Lawrence Island where gusts up to 50 mph remain possible.
Elsewhere along the West Coast, wind gusts will peak around 20-40
mph. As precipitation builds in with the accompanying stronger
winds, areas of blowing snow may lead to reduced visibility at
times.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
A more active weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend
into early next week, as a series of storm systems in the Bering
Sea and Northern Pacific track southwest to northeast into Alaska.
The first low will build into the Western Bering Sea late
Saturday into Sunday as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over
the Gulf of Alaska. The position of this low and a ridge further
east will support the potential for another low to work its way
in between these two features, favoring a track up through the
Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea Sunday into Monday. This
will support increased winds along the West Coast in addition to
through Alaska Range Passes Sunday into Monday with gusts up to 50
mph possible. That system will turn west and retrograde into the
larger low in the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday, with a
secondary stronger low building in through the Aleutians midweek.
This pattern overall will support increasing snow chances across
much of Northern Alaska as temperatures see a warming trend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804-811>813-857>859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-803-805-806-810-852-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

MacKay