546
FXAK69 PAFG 151525
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
625 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist for most of the mainland, with most
of the shower activity remaining more confined to the coastal areas
of the North Slope, as well as southeastern portions of the
Interior, mainly within the Upper Tanana Valley by later this
evening and through tonight. There could be some areas of patchy fog
and/or low stratus developing overnight. There are still going to be
some strong and gusty winds along the Northwest Arctic Coast and
across the Lisburne Peninsula, where there could be some gusty winds
approaching 40 mph at times. There will begin a more active pattern
through this weekend as we begin to see a broad area of low pressure
moving up into the Bering Sea, which will allow for an increase in
the chance of snow, and perhaps even a rain/snow/wintry mix for
portions of the YK-Delta for tomorrow, as there is some warmer air
advected up ahead of this low, which may result in a few places
getting above freezing. After that, and going into early next week,
we are going to see several low pressure systems transitioning to
the south of us, and reinforcing some warmer temperatures and
allowing for there to be a better chance of snow, and even some
gusty southerly winds through the passes for Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior through
the weekend, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations mostly out
across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double digits below
zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer Monday into Tuesday as isolated to
scattered snow chances return.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
Isabel Pass Sunday night into Monday, with gusts up to 40-50 mph
possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
through much of Saturday, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and
flurries.

- A more active weather pattern ramps up tonight into Sunday, and
then again for much of next week as a series of storms in the Bering
Sea lift north along the West Coast, supporting gusty winds and
increasingly widespread snow chances into early next week.

- Strongest winds Sunday and Monday will remain offshore and at St.
Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 45-55 mph are possible.
  Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around 20-
40 mph.

- Secondary system moving in Wednesday will help to reinforce
widespread snow chances and breezy winds through midweek.

- Temperatures will still be on the colder side today, then begin to
trend warmer trend beginning tomorrow and into Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero along
the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below zero, with
coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as isolated
to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.
Currently, there is a weakening area of low pressure to our south
over the Gulf of Alaska, and a much broader trough is beginning to
enter into the Bering Sea. There is also an area of high pressure
over the Chukchi sea, and an area of low pressure over Beaufort Sea
north of Canada, with associated troughing extending over the
northeastern portion of the state. This as resulted in snow showers
to be possible for areas of the Arctic Coast, and a few snow showers
beginning to move into the Upper Tanana Valley with the
southeasterly flow ahead of the low driving up some moisture over
this area. A strengthening low around 965m associated with the broad
area of troughing is going to move up into the Bering Strait along a
triple point with an occluded low further west. Due to fact that
there is already some troughing to the north, the gradient is not
going to be as tight to produce significantly strong winds with
this, so while some areas will see some increased strong and gusty
winds along the Southwest Coast later on, these winds are not
expected to reach criteria. As this area of low pressure passes
north of the Aleutian Islands, it is going to begin to slightly
deepen, which may help to increase winds as well. There will be some
snow showers beginning to move into portions of the YD-Delta, and
eventually northward up into the Norton Sound. Also, because of the
fact that there will be some warmer air advection moving up ahead of
this low, some of the temperatures might just get warm enough to
support a rain/snow or wintry mix, or otherwise be just a heavy wet
snow.

As we continue into the weekend, we will begin to see a series of
troughs moving eastward to the south of us over the Gulf of Alaska,
and continue to provide us both with more southerly flow and
relatively warmer temperatures (teens vs singles), which is closer
to the average temperature for this time of year. There will also be
a frontal boundary expanding over the mainland by tomorrow night and
going into Monday, which will help to keep the temperatures modified
with additional cloud cover and also provide a increasing chance of
snow for the Interior, and eventually over the Brooks Range as this
front moves up towards the north. There will also be some stronger
winds through the gaps due to southerly flow, and Isabel Pass may
get some strong enough winds to get to criteria going into Monday
morning (which will continue to be monitored).

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday night through next Friday night.
A series of troughs will continue to impact the region throughout
most of the week, with relatively warmer temperatures compare to
this past week, and closer to the seasonal average for this time of
year. A consensus of the ensembles keeps an overall area of
troughing moving into the Bering Sea, and continuing to influence
the western half of the state with better chances of snow. These
members also continue to have the troughing moving further eastward
across the mainland towards the end of the week, which may also help
to bring better chances for the eastern half of the state going into
the following weekend if this verifies. The overall trend in
temperatures are a gradual warming trend throughout the later half
of next.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804>806-811-812-852-854-
     856>858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-856-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Stewey