470
FXAK69 PAFG 271449
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
549 AM AKST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery winds are continuing across much of Northern Alaska this
morning, as high pressure remains over the Arctic Ocean. Snow
showers will continue today across the Southwestern Interior and
the Southern Seward Peninsula as another weak front moves into the
area. Later today we will begin to see a pattern shift take a
hold. Temperatures will begin to warm up tonight due to a warm
front bringing tropical moisture. This moisture will bring stormy
weather across much of the West Coast and Western Interior this
weekend, and will then move towards the Eastern Interior come
early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures will begin to warm tonight, as a warm front will
  bring cloud cover and warmer air. By Saturday night low
  temperatures will be in the single digits above 0, and are
  expected to keep rising into early next week.

- Gusty northeasterly winds up to 40 mph are possible along the
  Dalton Highway Summits, Eagle Summit, and Yukon Flats. These
  winds could cause areas of blowing snow, impacting visibility
  at times.

- The Tanana Valley Jet is creating strong and gusty winds, with
  the strongest winds being at Delta Junction, which may
  occasionally approach 60 mph tonight, and then gust up to 55
  mph tomorrow into Friday morning.

- Light snow is possible tomorrow night in the Eastern Interior as
  the warm front moves over the region. Snow accumulations would
  be less than inch. Isabell Pass could see up to 2 inches.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures will begin to warm today as a warm front brings
  tropical moisture into the Western portion of the state.
  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with chances
  of seeing temperatures approach freezing in the Southern
  Interior starting Sunday.

- East-Northeast winds are continuing this morning across the West
  Coast. Generally these winds will be 30 to 40 mph across much of
  the West Coast, however communities that typically see stronger
  winds from the east-northeast will see stronger winds. These
  stronger winds are expected to begin to weaken this evening.

- Light snow showers are expected to continue in the Lower Yukon
  and Southern Seward Peninsula today. With strong winds remaining
  in the region, there could be pockets of reduced visibility due
  to blowing snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures are expected to remain near normal with low
  temperatures in the single digits below 0 on the Arctic Coast,
  and lows in the teens below 0 on the Plains. A 10 to 15 degree
  warm-up is expected Friday night and continue through the
  weekend.

- Fog and low stratus is continuing across the Beaufort Sea
  Coastline this morning. The fog should dissipate later today,
  but low stratus is expected to remain.

- Easterly winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible across the Arctic
  Coastline. The chances for these winds will continue until
  Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 1042 mb high pressure that is southwest of Banks Island is
continuing to move to the southeast. This is bringing our east-
northeast winds across the Interior as there is a general area of
troughing in the Bering Sea tightening the pressure gradient. A
shortwave trough will rotate through this broad area of low
pressure bringing a week front in Southwest Alaska today. This
front will bring snow showers to the region, as well as some
warmer air aloft. This air will help to erode the cold air at the
surface for when the main low moves into the area early next week.
An upper level low located in Eastern Siberia will catch up to an
Arctic Low west of Wrangel Island. Friday evening these features
will merge, reinforcing the strength of an arctic cold front. This
cold front is the cause of most of the model uncertainty in the
extended forecast, and will be highlighted in the Extended
Forecast section.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty across the model suites
on the forecast details come Sunday when a low moves towards
Bristol Bay. There are stark differences in precipitation amounts,
precipitation types, as well as temperatures. Many of these
differences stem from an arctic cold front that will come into the
Chuckchi Sea Sunday afternoon. The deterministic GFS pushes this
cold front faster across Northern Alaska, and bringing the colder
air farther south limiting how much tropical air remains in the
Interior. This would of course be the best case, as precipitation
would remain as all snow, and impacts would stem from heavy
snowfall chances. While the ECMWF and GEM are slowing that front,
and allowing for the warm air advection to keep 850 mb
temperatures at or above freezing in the Southern Interior. This
would introduce the chances for a wide area in the Southern
Interior from the Lower Yukon to Denali Park to potentially see
freezing precipitation. The ECMWF ensemble solution supports that
solution and the GFS ensemble is trending towards that solution,
but is keeping temperatures below freezing. I would lean towards
this warmer solution with a slower arctic front because over
Western Canada is a stout ridge. Models will try and either
flatten or push a ridge quicker than what they will realistically
do, especially when we are in a highly amplified pattern.

With the potential to see freezing rain being more realized, we
need to also see how the models are differing in precipitation
amounts. With the ECMWF/GEM pushing the low into Bristol Bay,
there would be southerly flow over the Eastern Interior which
would cause most of the precipitation to be downsloped. We would
still have the chance to see light precipitation whether it is in
the form of drizzle or light snow due to how much moisture will be
advected into the Interior. However the western portion of the
state is a different story. The ECMWF/GEM is putting periods of
precipitation starting Sunday night, becoming heavy Monday night.
This heavy precipitation would potentially continue through the
week. With warmer temperatures potentially approaching freezing
in the Southern Interior, we could see impactful weather. If a
colder solution is the one that pans out this would turn into a
heavy snow event for some communities. As we are approaching the
event confidence is increasing for the Y-K Delta and Southern
Interior, but there is still not a lot of confidence on the
Eastern Interior. With models trending towards a solution we
should see confidence quickly increase in the coming model runs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-812-814-815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Dennis