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FXAK67 PAJK 170536 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
836 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sunday is a relatively quiet weather period for
southeast Alaska, with two separate 998mb low transiting along our
coast, light winds across the inner channels, and some fog for
isolated areas. Upstream on the eastern edge of the Aleutian Arc a
storm force low is pushing north into the Bering, with shortwave
troughs rotating around the parent 500mb low being the catalyst
for propagation into the gulf through the next few days. For the
first of these systems, a secondary low and occluding front will
push east across the gulf Monday, bringing elevated wind, enhanced
seas, and precipitation into the Panhandle into Tuesday. As the
front moves across the inner channels there exists a chance to see
snow mixing down to the surface for the central and southern
region, but the dominant precip type, and impacts, remain rain.
The Icy Strait corridor offers its usual forecast challenge, with
confidence increasing for snow as one moves north and closer to
the border of Canada. Current published forecast has 2 to 3 inches
of snow for Haines Highway and 2 to 6 inches for the Klondike
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning; most snow closer to the
border. Heaviest rates look to come in through Monday afternoon.
Anticipate warmer southerly air to push through Haines/Skagway by
Tuesday morning bringing all rain to sea level areas. For the
Juneau area we could see a quick of about an inch of snow Monday
morning. A closing note for Yakutat, the current forecast has
about 0.8 inches of wet snow early Monday morning based off heavy
precip rates associated with the incoming front briefly dropping
snow levels down to the surface for a few hours. There is an 80%
chance that the northern coast will see all rain with no
accumulating snow.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week
with multiple systems and a range of possibilities for snow. The
Haines and Klondike Highways remain the likeliest suspects for
accumulating snow at this time. Communities at sea level will be
harder pressed to see any accumulating snow due to the lack of any
cold continental airmass in the lower levels. However, snow mixing
in with rain cannot be ruled out with any heavier precipitation
bringing snow levels closer to the surface, as seen with recent
systems.

For Tuesday, a short wave trough will rotate through the gulf with
some model discrepancies on the strength of two associated lows.
One of these will likely track towards Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound. The other one is expected to track towards the
panhandle, bringing more precipitation across the panhandle,
lingering over the panhandle Tuesday night. Storm totals are
expected to be lower for this system than the one earlier in the
week, with the upper elevations of the Haines and Klondike
Highways seeing another 1 to 2 inches of snow.

Moving to midweek, there is still some uncertainty over the track
of a gale force low moving into the southern gulf Wednesday. The
GEFs continues to have a midlevel ridge push slightly further
north along the gulf, which is driving the midweek system further
north along the panhandle, while both the Canadian and Euro
ensembles have this ridge being shallower and not steering the low
as far north. Therefore, there were not enough changes to warrant
deviation from the previous forecast in following the trend of
the grand ensemble. This still has the low weakening as it
approaches the panhandle between Dixon entrance and Baranof Island,
though still bringing moderate precipitation, primarily from
Frederick Sound southward. Any northward shift in the track of
this feature would lead to stronger winds pushing further north
along the inner channels as well as higher precipitation rates for
the central panhandle. Even so, the highest precipitation amounts
overall from this system would still be expected along the outer
coast of the southern panhandle with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in 24
hours for the far southern panhandle and outer coast, diminishing
to around 0.5 inches for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound.
Depending upon the northward jog of this low, the highways could
also see another small batch of snow.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday. This front is
expected to bring gale force winds to the gulf waters along with
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a majority of the
panhandle. The heaviest precipitation is expected along outer
coastal communities, with 24 hour totals from Thursday afternoon
to Friday afternoon 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts
at higher elevations and westward facing slopes. For communities
in the inner channels, storm totals look to be closer to 0.75
inches to 1.5 inches. As with earlier in the week, a lack of a
significant cold continental airmass in the inner channels will
likely limit any snow potential for communities at sea level.
Haines and Skagway cannot be ruled out, especially higher
elevations of the Chilkat Peninsula. Also, the track of the low
on Wednesday into Thursday could serve to prime the northern inner
channels for snow if it induces a northerly gradient for long
enough. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the week progresses.

AVIATION...A lot of the lower clouds that stuck around the
northern and central inner channels today lingered into the
evening as well. Currently ceilings around 1300 to 2500 ft have
been rather persistent around Haines, Skagway, Gustavus, Hoonah,
Kake, and Petersburg and are expected to at least stick around
through the night. Otherwise it is VFR conditions everywhere else
this evening. Higher clouds are starting to show up for the
northern half of the area in advance of tomorrow`s front and
northern areas will likely see precipitation starting up by
sunrise. Areas from Icy Strait northward may see some snow out of
this to at least start, especially at Haines and Skagway, and if
that happens expect vis and ceilings to drop to low MVFR or even
IFR. Areas where the precip stays as rain expect higher, but still
MVFR conditions. Except for Haines and Skagway, most areas that
see some snow to start with will likely change to rain by
afternoon and vis and ceilings will likely improve, but still be
in MVFR conditions. The southern panhandle will have to wait until
at least mid day or afternoon before the precip reaches them with
the accompanying ceiling drop to MVFR expected soon after. The
precip is expected to last into the evening before diminishing.

This front is also bringing in some gusty surface winds mainly for
the north and northeast outer coast mainly during the day. Winds
aloft over the outer coast from Baranof Island northwestward will
also be a bit frisky with SE winds up to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ft
resulting in a period of mostly low level speed shear in these
areas. The best potential for this is Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening before winds aloft and at sea level diminish.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/coastal waters):
As of this writing Sunday afternoon at 2pm local, coastal buoys
are near 11 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW and diminishing as the
responsible storm weakens. Anticipate this WSW swell to continue
early Monday morning and significant heights of 6 to 7 ft from
Cross Sound toward Dixon for a brief moment. However, easterly
winds increase to near-gale, to gale force, starting Monday
morning for Cape St. Elias, with southeasterly winds of strong
breezes to near-gales building for the remainder of our coast
into the afternoon. Associated with this frontal wind will be
southeasterly fresh seas, with underlying westerly swell, creating
confused seas of 11 to 13 ft into Monday evening focused near 8
seconds. Overnight Monday westerly swell begins to dominate, with
significant heights remaining near 12 ft along our coast at a
period near 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Gentle to moderate breezes are a welcome sight across the inside
this Sunday afternoon, with winds less than 20 knots forecasted
into the evening. Overnight Monday winds become southerly in
response to an approaching front, building to moderate breezes for
most of the inner channels by sunrise Monday. Anticipate a
frontal passage Monday afternoon into the evening, with many
channels feeling a few hours of fresh to strong breezes associated
with the front. However, current forecast reflects a few hours of
gusts reaching near gale force conditions for Lynn Canal as the
pressure gradient tightens Monday evening. A series of systems
will continue to impact the inside through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ317.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>033-053-641>644-651-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP

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